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Tesla Full Self Driving Availability Prediction

When will Full Self Driving be available on Tesla vehicles?

  • 2018

    Votes: 3 2.5%
  • 2019

    Votes: 15 12.6%
  • 2020

    Votes: 26 21.8%
  • 2021

    Votes: 13 10.9%
  • 2022

    Votes: 19 16.0%
  • 2023

    Votes: 4 3.4%
  • 2024

    Votes: 6 5.0%
  • 2025 or later

    Votes: 33 27.7%

  • Total voters
    119
Dec 2, 2017
358
339
Arizona
If you buy a Tesla today, Full Self Driving costs $3000 now but $4000 later. If you know you'll buy it when it's available, the point at which it becomes viable along with the return on an alternative investment determines whether it's better to buy now or later. For example, if after taxes you can make 7% annually elsewhere, it would be better to buy now assuming FSD is available in fewer than 4 years, since your $3000 would be worth only $3932 in 4 years. Now the question is: when do you think it will actually be available? And no, the answer isn't "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely".
 
Dec 2, 2017
358
339
Arizona
I think they will deliver something between level 3 and level 4 in 2022 and then declare this to be FSD.
Thanks for writing in. There is reason for skepticism, but it seems like this would upset a lot of people if Tesla stopped there. Even Level 4 per SAE J3016 doesn’t quite sound “full”: “The car can operate without human input or oversight but only under select conditions defined by factors such as road type or geographic area.”
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: croman
Dec 2, 2017
358
339
Arizona
A true level 3 would be really useful. I doubt Tesla can even get to that goal with current sensors. Tesla's path to level 5 may eventually be with Waymo.
Here’s hoping they can go further. Level 3 sounds kind of scary to me, because it’s just autonomous enough that the driver can get really complacent (even more so than Autopilot today at Level 2), but not autonomous enough to make it so the system can’t suddenly cede control to the driver when it gets confused. It seems like it would require a lot of discipline to use it properly, and even then it might be easy to get caught off guard. Volvo plans to bypass Level 3 entirely for such reasons.
 

HankLloydRight

No Roads
Jan 18, 2014
12,996
11,031
Connecticut
I'd like to see a Vegas book take odds on Tesla delivering "FSD" within any timeframe. I'd take that bet.

And that's real FSD as advertised. Surface streets, stop signs, pedestrians, intersections with other cars -- all of it.
 

Unpilot

Sell order in at $5999.99
Dec 2, 2017
4,977
38,998
A Coast
I voted for 2021. I think the pace of change is always a surprise. 3 years is a life time in tech years and FSD is largely a tech problem with some slow regulations thrown in.
 

boaterva

Supporting Member
Apr 2, 2016
7,567
3,739
Northern Virginia, USA
The problem is, can they do it with the current sensors and then can they do it with the current computers (2.5? 2.0?). Having to change either of those will be a nightmare, one more so than the other.

Not sure how they would ‘declare’ 3 or 4 to be FSD when it was purchased on the grounds of it doing Level 5! (Where’s that popcorn emoji when you want it... :D)

(Fun fact for the day: Did you know the AP Stylebook has declared the plural of emoji is emoji?)
 
Dec 2, 2017
358
339
Arizona
I really wish they had better hardware for this. As is under discussion in the 2018.21 (beta) thread, ultrasonics just don’t react quickly enough for BS (lol) detection.
I’m not sure why ultrasonic sensors would be inherently too slow for this. https://www.mouser.com/ds/2/813/HCSR04-1022824.pdf is a data sheet for a cheap ultrasonic sensor: it seems like the sample rate is basically limited by the speed of sound and the roundtrip of the echo. Their 60ms suggested limit implies a sample rate of almost 20hz, which should be plenty good for detecting someone in your blind spot. There are also aftermarket blind spot detection systems based on ultrasonic sensors, and TI makes a sensor designed for it: http://www.ti.com/tool/TIDA-00151.
 

electracity

Active Member
Jun 8, 2015
4,028
2,531
60606
Once the car models surrounding traffic BS detection will be nearly perfect. The fact that the car is apparently not completely modeling surrounding traffic in June of 2018 is remarkable. For BS the ultrasonic detector should be the secondary sensor.The car should predict the the nearby car arriving in the blind spot.
 
Dec 2, 2017
358
339
Arizona
Once the car models surrounding traffic BS detection will be nearly perfect. The fact that the car is apparently not completely modeling surrounding traffic in June of 2018 is remarkable. For BS the ultrasonic detector should be the secondary sensor.The car should predict the the nearby car arriving in the blind spot.
I would have expected that sooner as well but have to give them the benefit of the doubt. I’m guessing Tesla has had their hands full lately.
 

Barklikeadog

Active Member
Jul 13, 2016
1,880
1,362
PA
I think they will deliver something between level 3 and level 4 in 2022 and then declare this to be FSD.
well this is the standard:
All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

and don't forget the car will be able to go off ride sharing while you watch tv at home.
 
Dec 2, 2017
358
339
Arizona
3 years maybe, 6 years definitely.
I get that this is a hyperbolic twist on the Elon joke from the OP, but let’s say we take it at face value and do the math. In 3 years you’d be better off buying FSD now if you could get up to 10% on your money annually elsewhere, and in 5 years you’d be better off at up to nearly 5%. $3000 * 1.1^3 = $3993, $3000 * 1.1^5 = $4020.
 

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