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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

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I said five years, 2017-2021. Except for maybe Toyota, all major car makers will offer a wide range EVs in all price categories before 2022.

(PHEVs even well before that, 2016-2020, these longer-range PHEVs such as the new Volt will offer good alternatives as well).

Not because of Tesla, but mainly because of upcoming emission regulations, better battery technology and better infrastructure:
  • Stricter emission caps and penalties by the end of the decade in all major car markets (China, Europe, NA)
  • Upgraded charging standards: Chademo and CCS both at 150 kW (and later 350kW if needed) for fast wired charging. Many of these CCS and Chademo charging networks are subsidized by public funds around the world, Tesla's stations for a single car brand are not.
  • New battery plants in forms of JVs or other large supply contracts with mostly Asian suppliers as needed (don't think the planning/supply departments at these large car makers forgot about the batteries): LG; Samsung; Panasonic; Chinese brands...

Compare Tesla's hyperbole announcements "$5billion investment for Gigafactory 1", "up to 150 GWh from Gigafactory 1", "up to 1 million cars from Fremont", "millions of cars by 2025" and finally "we could match/exceed Apple's market cap within a decade" with the actual competition / reality on the ground by 2020-2022, not before.

Tesla and its CEO like to talk about the future - and rarely about the additional funds to get there. Large car makers and other relative newcomers (such as BYD) on the other hand execute quietly on their plans.

And they actually have the billions needed each year to get there.

Your "predictions" are always optimistic for the incumbents and always pessimistic for Tesla. What is the current reality in the EV marketplace? Tesla is selling tens of thousands of $100k cars per year and the major OEMs can't match that with their $30k EVs. Tesla has the only reliable, fast-charging network.

The reality is Tesla is 5 years ahead of the competition and no other manufacturer is taking EVs seriously, in the year 2016. Your argument will always be flawed because the incumbents will not seriously build EVs at a mass market level. Tesla will be well entrenched in the market before another earnest player comes into the picture.

Again, how did your Hyundai Ioniq prediction pan out? When will BYD sell cars in the US?
 
Again, how did your Hyundai Ioniq prediction pan out? When will BYD sell cars in the US?

I wrote that it's likely the Ioniq will likely have a range 150+ miles. It didn't. But Hyundai will have a 200-mile car by 2018 (different model):

Hyundai All-Electric SUV To Arrive In 2018, With 200 Miles Of Range

Now when will the Tesla Model3 ship in volume? Are you sure it will ship before that car given all the delays Tesla encountered?

As for BYD, they don't need to sell in the US (or anywhere else in the world:, their home market is large enough for many years to come:

BYD Qin Sales Top 50,000, Tang Exceed 30,000

Nearly 20,000 Plug-In Electric Cars Sold In China In April

But they already sell EV buses internationally, including the US:

AVTA to Become Nation's First 100% Electric Bus Fleet By 2018! Up To 85 BYD Buses

As for batteries:

Shenzhen-based BYD plans to add 6 gigawatt hours of global production for batteries in each of the next three years, and hopes to keep adding at that pace afterwards if demand is solid, Matthew Jurjevich, a spokesman for the company, said on Friday.

(...)

"We have demonstrated that BYD is capable of adding 6 GWh every year with strong market demand," Jurjevich, who works for BYD's U.S. unit, said in an interview.

(...)


Most of BYD's production is in China, but the company is opening a major new factory in Brazil this year that will contribute meaningfully to output next year, Jurjevich said.

BYD, which started out making mobile phone batteries, will also scale up manufacturing in the United States as demand for its batteries increases, he added.

China's BYD takes aim at Tesla in battery factory race
 
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BYD makes LiFePO4 which makes them relatively immaterial when it comes to competing with Tesla. It's great for EVs overall, but you can't match Tesla's vehicles using LiFePO4. China also needs to alter their incentive structure as it rewards LiFePO4 production but not NMC which is a big, but easily solved problem. Regardless, LiFePO4 is already a dead end for vehicles - BYD will continue to do well for some time, but will have to make the costly transition in order to compete on the world stage or for higher end vehicles in China.
 
BYD makes LiFePO4 which makes them relatively immaterial when it comes to competing with Tesla. It's great for EVs overall, but you can't match Tesla's vehicles using LiFePO4.

1 GWh is 1 GWh. I wrote about BYD's capacity. And I don't think BYD will stand still on battery tech and new chemistry until 2021 either.

No idea why you continually gloss over the fact that the range claims are always non-EPA. Wait, no, I do know why you do that.

Did you even read my link?

Both the Ioniq EV and the new 2018 Hyundai EV SUV are given "real-world" ranges, ie. about 110 miles for the former and 200 miles for the latter.

Won't post more here since this is the GF investor thread.
 
1 GWh is 1 GWh. I wrote about BYD's capacity.



Did you read my link? Both the Ioniq and the new 2018 Hyundai EV SUV are given "real-world" ranges, ie. about 110 miles and 200 miles.

Uh, no, they assumed it was a real-world number for the SUV, because they had quoted one for the Ioniq. And you'll note the use of the term "up to" when discussing the SUV.
 
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I wrote that it's likely the Ioniq will likely have a range 150+ miles. It didn't. But Hyundai will have a 200-mile car by 2018 (different model):

Hyundai All-Electric SUV To Arrive In 2018, With 200 Miles Of Range

Now when will the Tesla Model3 ship in volume? Are you sure it will ship before that car given all the delays Tesla encountered?

As for BYD, they don't need to sell in the US (or anywhere else in the world:, their home market is large enough for many years to come:

BYD Qin Sales Top 50,000, Tang Exceed 30,000

Nearly 20,000 Plug-In Electric Cars Sold In China In April

But they already sell EV buses internationally, including the US:

AVTA to Become Nation's First 100% Electric Bus Fleet By 2018! Up To 85 BYD Buses

As for batteries:



China's BYD takes aim at Tesla in battery factory race

So what? You seem to be making the argument that if BYD sells 20k cars in China Tesla is in trouble? The EV market is 20 years away from needing to worry about EV vs EV competition. EV's compete against all cars sold, not just other EV's.

You could be right about everything here and it isn't a concern for Tesla. This is like the guy who wants everyone to know that TM buys motors from taiwan. Just proving that there are other small players in the EV making game is interesting at best, good for the environment (hopefully) but not a financial concern.
 
Musk only mentions current cars in his two tweets (first one already quoted above by Jeff):

S and X cells are also Panasonic

Elon Musk on Twitter

That leaves the door open for other products / suppliers. As I see it:

Panasonic = Model3, S, X (at least for the time being)

LG Chem = upgraded Roadster

Samsung = ESS / buffer / stationary storage (at least rumored given the specs)

All of this still leaves two important questions open:

– Where’s Tesla "unique battery tech" that large investors such as Ron Baron blindly believe in? All other car makers get their cells (but in a different format) from the exact same Asian suppliers. Some of them have also invested in vertical integration (e.g. Nissan, years ahead of Tesla).

– Where will Tesla's/Panasonic's economies of scale advantage be in 5-10 years since LG has contracts with the world’s biggest car makers and Panasonic only supplies these cylindrical cells to Tesla?

LG has far more contracts and volume ahead assuming even a modest ramp from their PHEV and EV clients until 2020 or 2025.

I doubt Panasonic has any cost advantage over LG, Samsung or BYD long-term. Bye.
 
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Would like to clarify that Tesla is working exclusively with Panasonic for Model 3 cells. News articles claiming otherwise are incorrect.
S and X cells are also Panasonic
All other car makers get their cells (but in a different format) from the exact same Asian suppliers.
... and Panasonic only supplies these cylindrical cells to Tesla?

Hmmm.... Something does not add up here ;)


Goodbye :)
 
– Where will Tesla's/Panasonic's economies of scale advantage be in 5-10 years since LG has contracts with the world’s biggest car makers and Panasonic only supplies these cylindrical cells to Tesla?

LG has far more contracts and volume ahead assuming even a modest ramp from their PHEV and EV clients until 2020 or 2025.

I doubt Panasonic has any cost advantage over LG, Samsung or BYD long-term. Bye.

Do you acknowledge that Panasonic are Tesla's equal partner in the Gigafactory venture, and that the Gigafactory is going to be the largest battery manufacturing plant in the world in a few years? If so, you argument hinges on you being able to present some kind of fact based information as to how, where and when, and with what financing, LG is going to manufacture these theoretically very large quantities of batteries in the years 2018-2025. Do you have any such information? It would sure be very interesting to all Tesla investors, long and short.

Here's what I mean, said another way: Elon Musk says "we (Tesla+Panasonic) will build the world's largest battery factory, where we will produce 50 GWh of batteries or possbily doube or triple that when we're at full capacity in 5 years". But he doesn't want us to blindly take his word for it. He has shown us the site, he has explained where the financing will come from, he has given a detailed schedule for construction, he has been to the financial markets to raise capital etc.

Now you say: "LG has far more contracts and volume ahead..." which I take to mean "more than Tesla+Panasonic". So now you have to present something to support your case, because even though you claim to be able to tell tales from the future and even though you might think Tesla longs have a tendency toward blind faith, neither is likely the case.
 
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Hmmm.... Something does not add up here ;)

It does if you read my comment closely: It says cylindrical cells.

Panasonic delivers other cell types to other car makers.

The 20700 format still amounts thousands of small cells in a car. All of Tesla's competitors obviously use much larger cells.

Many experts say the costs of the two approaches will converge soon or that prismatic/pouch cells may even be cheaper than cylindrical cells.
 
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Do you acknowledge that Panasonic are Tesla's equal partner in the Gigafactory venture, and that the Gigafactory is going to be the largest battery manufacturing plant in the world in a few years?

I will acknowledge it once Tesla and Panasonic invested their full $4 to $5 billion into the project and nobody else steps up their battery manufacturing volume until then. So far, they (combined) only invested 10% of that sum*.

Size isn't static. VW AG is rumored to pour far more (about 10 billion EUR) into their battery plant if plans go ahead for cell production / vertical integration in Europe.

Again, Tesla talks about being the largest and recently also about expanding to 150 GWh. Talk is cheap.

The reported numbers in Nevada speak a different language.

* That is the $508 million until Q2 2016. These reports to Nevada officials and the SEC filings are the only numbers I believe in because Tesla can be held liable if they report wrong numbers.
 
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I will acknowledge it once Tesla and Panasonic invest their $4 to 5 billion into the project and nobody else steps up their battery manufacturing volume until then. So far, they only invested 10% of that sum*.

Size isn't static. VW AG is rumored to pour far more (about 10 billion EUR) into their battery plant if plans go ahead for cell production / vertical integration in Europe.

Again, Tesla talks about being the largest and recently also about expanding to 150 GWh. Talk is cheap.

The reported numbers in Nevada speak a different language.

* That is the $508 million. These reports to Nevada officials and the SEC filings are the only numbers I believe in because Tesla can be held liable if they report wrong numbers.

In my world there is no doubt that Tesla and Panasonic will invest the full $4-5 billion, according to schedule. And in my world such a public commitment, detailed in quarterly financila reports, SEC filing, deals with the Federal government of Nevada etc. should be given far more weight than a "rumor" as you call it of an "about €10 billion" investment from VW in battery production. You see, Tesla have shown product lines that are coming to market in a few years where all these batteries will go (Model 3, Tesla Energy). VW have not.

From the outside (from my perspective) you sure seem to operate with double standards, meaning you put too much credence on soft rumors and maybes when it comes to competition, and far too little credence on hard commitment when it comes to Tesla.
 
It does if you read my comment closely: It says cylindrical cells.

Panasonic delivers other cell types to other car makers.

That would be a good argument if Panasonic did deliver the exact same cell chemistry/design in a different format to other car makers. But Tesla is the only customer of this type of cells, and that answers a part of your question:
Where’s Tesla "unique battery tech" that large investors such as Ron Baron blindly believe in?

The rest is in Teslas unique tech in the battery pack/software.
 
Many experts say the costs of the two approaches will converge soon or that prismatic/pouch cells may even be cheaper than cylindrical cells.

1. What many experts? Like name them and provide links to their 'expert' studies. I hope there's charts. The colors are so pretty.
2. Got any experts who aren't 'guessing'? Soon, may, might, maybe, possible, etc... doesn't instill confidence in the 'expert'. Indeed, an expert is suppose to know otherwise they aren't an expert.
 
Many experts say the costs of the two approaches will converge soon or that prismatic/pouch cells may even be cheaper than cylindrical cells.

I can not agree more with Krugerrand's point.

There is no company in the world than Tesla who has a bigger interest in using the best format cells for Automotive. Best is a balance between energy density, costs, safety and some other parameters. Note that optimum for PHEV's is might very well not be the optimum for BEV's.

One can be rest assured that Tesla is continuously looking into this, it has more more at stake in this than its competitors. Many of these competitors are even only doing EV's to limit their loss in ZEV costs, even Lutz publicly admitted GM is not doing EV's to make money. These competitors are OK with 'good enough' cells. For Tesla having the BEST possible cells is a matter of survival.

Again and again Tesla reconfirmed that they feel cylindrical cells are the optimum. And Tesla (and Musk) have proven at many occasions not to be afraid to make big changes in case something better comes up.

I trust Tesla, and the experts it has, far more than some other experts who still fail to deliver cells & packs that are better than Tesla's, even those from Tesla as long as 4 years ago.

TFTF, I have seen you using this argument on other forums as well. Please come up with a real answer on how your position on this can be defended, or stop using this argument.
 
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I will acknowledge it once Tesla and Panasonic invested their full $4 to $5 billion into the project and nobody else steps up their battery manufacturing volume until then. So far, they (combined) only invested 10% of that sum*.

Size isn't static. VW AG is rumored to pour far more (about 10 billion EUR) into their battery plant if plans go ahead for cell production / vertical integration in Europe.

Again, Tesla talks about being the largest and recently also about expanding to 150 GWh. Talk is cheap.

The reported numbers in Nevada speak a different language.

* That is the $508 million until Q2 2016. These reports to Nevada officials and the SEC filings are the only numbers I believe in because Tesla can be held liable if they report wrong numbers.

Simply getting the factory built, at this scale, is a 2-3 year endeavor. LG will have to build somewhere other than Korea to build at the scale contemplated by Tesla. A number of Chinese companies could raise the money and do the same, they'd be 3 years behind but that's not the end of the world. VW could do this too, no issues for them to drop $4 billion in cash on a factory that will lead them to fire tens of thousands of workers as they'll not need to make ICE drivetrains. Oh...wait, the employees are running the company. Hmmmm...

In the brave new world where you remove the ICE manufactures advantage in drive trains it helps to not have ICE roots. You move faster.

GM is moving faster than anyone else, Nissan second, in the ICE world. As long as you are a posting no facts, no charts, no names you'd be better off just hypothesizing that one of the Chinese companies may catch Tesla due to Chinese govt state support. That at least may be realistic. However, if they do so it will be because China agreed to pump $20billion down a rat hole.

None of that takes into account the combined advantage of AI and Supercharger networks. Tesla is building on a very very solid foundation, maybe 5 year head start that allows them to be the first to a million battery powered vehicles. Then we start talking grid disruption ....
 
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Guys, we are arguing against a strawman yet again. TFTF is suggesting that if the global battery market has a revolution of capacity, size and low cost somehow that is bad for Tesla. I have said this before: TM would love to just buy batteries on the open market and compete with good styling, software, autopilot features etc. They are engaged with building a capital intensive factory because they had to, not because they possessed super battery tech.