Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[JRP3]

If Tesla found that the could reduce battery side impact protection on the model 3 by three inches, the cars could have the same width battery.

That's a pretty significant difference which would expose the pack to greater side crash intrusion, and you are also ignoring the difference in length. I don't think having two physically different battery shells is that much of an issue, and the larger vehicles will always need greater pack volume to get enough range. At least up until the point volumetric energy density is much higher than today. If they can hit 400-500 miles of range and have pack space left over in the S/X then all vehicles would likely be able to share the same pack design.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The Model S/X could probably be able to fit the smaller Model 3 packs. You would probably just need an extra adaptor frame, to make the Model 3 pack slightly bigger. The high capacity Model 3 pack (probably 70-80 kWh) could be a low cost solution for the base Model S/X.

 

[eloder]

Quick question--did any of the tours go over the anode production of the cells? (If I missed it, a live stream or video link would be awesome!). If not, I'm wondering if they have some big secrets/advancements hiding there with silicon/chemistry/aging in the anode.

 

[electracity]

Is the model 3 battery pack shorter? The model 3 has less overhang and a smaller frunk and trunk. So the pack length may be close to the S/X.

I also think Model S II may be built on the model 3 platform.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Is the model 3 battery pack shorter? The model 3 has less overhang and a smaller frunk and trunk. So the pack length may be close to the S/X.

I also think Model S II may be built on the model 3 platform.

The model 3 is 80% the size of the model S, so it stands to reason that the surface area would be smaller. Whether that means being shorter, wider, or both is unknown. Since the cells themselves are 0.5cm taller (for a smaller capacity pack), then something else has to be smaller to compensate.

As for the model S II, I doubt it. What would differentiate the model 3 from the model S, if they're physically about the same size? Especially since the current model S/X platform will be around for the minibus.

 

[GSP]

It's not clear how much of the $3.9 billion is going to the Gigafactory. Part of it is, and they didn't mention any other use for the money. It certainly looks like most of it is going into the Gigafactory, so I think this is more than they were originally planning to put in.

Panasonic will also be making the new 21700 format cells in Japan. The original gigafactory plan was to make 35 GWh of cells per year, and import 15 GWh of cells year, to make 50 GWh total packs. It is likely the $3.9B includes all 50 GWh of cell production machinery.

GSP

PS. The plan is now to make about 3x as many cells, but I don't have the new numbers handy.

 

[doctoxics]

The F150 buyer will not be an EV buyer for many years. The world is not an F150 buyer either. The trick is figuring out the markets where Tesla would aim a truck-like EV.

The Tesla truck will be way superior to the F150 (consider all of the advantages of an electric compared to a gas vehicle), that truck buyers will go electric if they can afford the Tesla pickup.

 

[JRP3]

Is the model 3 battery pack shorter? The model 3 has less overhang and a smaller frunk and trunk. So the pack length may be close to the S/X.

I guess we don't yet know the Model 3 wheelbase, so if it's within an inch or so of the S/X then I suppose they could fit the same length pack.

 

[JRP3]

Panasonic will also be making the new 21700 format cells in Japan.

Do we know that for sure? I always assumed the cells from Japan would keep the 18650 format, at least for the next few years.

 

[3Victoria]

Tesla said they hoped the 21-70 to become a new standard size.

 

[Jeff N]

Quick question--did any of the tours go over the anode production of the cells? (If I missed it, a live stream or video link would be awesome!). If not, I'm wondering if they have some big secrets/advancements hiding there with silicon/chemistry/aging in the anode.

No, they didn't show us or talk about the anode production. I don't know why.

 

[3Victoria]

I would guess the process, chemistry, and equipment is proprietary. This distinguishes the cells from others by capacity, life-time, charging capability ...

 

[GSP]

Do we know that for sure? I always assumed the cells from Japan would keep the 18650 format, at least for the next few years.

No. I do not recall any announcements from Tesla or Panasonic about the format of the Made in Japan cells.

I have been assuming that Tesla would want to switch all of their packs to the 21700 format ASAP to reduce cost. However, I don't know how long "ASAP" will be, or if my assumption is correct.

Even if the change is years away, Panasonic would likely include it in their $3.9B announcement. It's more impressive that way.

GSP

 

[techmaven]

The primary parts they showed us last night was a single giant oven and deposition machine for baking the cathode, a few presses, and the aging room. We were in a room where they were going to have the milling machines to prepare the slurry, but it was mostly empty. Note that it is hard to have 2,000 people trample through a completed factory in a few hours - the slurry prep room would become a clean room soon enough for example, and then it would be hard to have people trample through it.

The presses were mostly covered in black plastic.

It felt like this was the last chance for Tesla to show off the innards to a large group of people, and clearly the Panasonic portions were more guarded.

It did not feel like the workers on the Tesla pack assembly side were truly working... and I suspect it had to be so, as again, 2,000 or so people wandering through would not be a good time to actually work at a normal pace.

As for Panasonic in Japan, I asked about conversion to 21-70, and some engineers said they are looking into it in a vague kind of way.

 

[JRP3]

Randy's contention was this was short circuited by TSLA by building the packs first from cells and then 'aging' them in the battery packs

More proof this is not happening: Instagram video by Maye Musk • Jul 30, 2016 at 2:35am UTC
Those racks cannot hold a pack. Also from the tour:

The aging room has no capability for power cycling the cells - it is just a huge vertical warehouse with a robotic loader/unloader for trays of cells. I confirmed this with our very knowledgeable tour guide.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

 

[omarsultan]

I would guess the process, chemistry, and equipment is proprietary. This distinguishes the cells from others by capacity, life-time, charging capability ...

They showed a couple of the machines and talked to some degree about the process involved on the tour, but no a lot of details--posted some pics on the GF Party thread

 

[woof]

t did not feel like the workers on the Tesla pack assembly side were truly working...

Indeed, it was clear they were not. I had the pleasure of being in the tour group with @evchels who was quite vexed that there was no actual pack production going on at all. Check her twitter feed.

I attempted to ask questions of the "experts" who clearly weren't, and they were often evasive. For example, in the section where they were supposedly filling battery pack trays for the pods that go into the PowerPack/PowerWall, one would expect to see rows and rows of cells from Japan ready to be installed. They were no where to be found. The "expert" couldn't/wouldn't tell me where the cells were. We asked "how many pods are produced per hour?" No answer.

Another question: "As you aren't producing the new cell size yet, what cells are you putting in now, and wouldn't they be the wrong size? " No answer. Near the exit were a few boxes of connectors and orange wiring harness assemblies. "Do you make those wiring harness here or elsewhere"? Answer: "Huh, I don't know. I don't think we build them here." Experts.

I did get them to admit the line was mostly hand assembly and would be soon replaced with automation. So I'm pretty convinced what we saw was nothing close to what the final line may eventually be.

That and our tour guide (admittedly a procurement engineer) kept holding up a 21-70 cell and calling it a battery. Really bugged me.

 

[techmaven]

The cells are in the black plastic boxes here:

Clearly, the tour guides and many of the people we were allowed to interact with were lower tier staff. They may know their areas of expertise, but some were definitely a big cagey.

The battery modules being produced is using 18650's from Panasonic. As per various conversations I had with them, they will need to be redesigned for 21-70 cells at some point.

I suspect that the pack assembly being done right now is not the pack assembly to be done with Gigafactory cell output. The red robot I think is to be part of the new pack assembly, while the yellow ones are the ones currently assembling packs.

 

[electracity]

It is a bit odd that they did the Gigafactory grand opening before any of the new manufacturing has started. But the photos and info are still interesting.

It's interesting too that they have the footings poured to double the size of the current building.

 

[3Victoria]

As someone else stated, doing tours during operation may be very limited due to environmrntal and proprietary processes. This was the pnd chancd to let people go through most areas.