Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[dennis]

Indeed, it was clear they were not. I had the pleasure of being in the tour group with @evchels who was quite vexed that there was no actual pack production going on at all. Check her twitter feed.

I attempted to ask questions of the "experts" who clearly weren't, and they were often evasive. For example, in the section where they were supposedly filling battery pack trays for the pods that go into the PowerPack/PowerWall, one would expect to see rows and rows of cells from Japan ready to be installed. They were no where to be found. The "expert" couldn't/wouldn't tell me where the cells were. We asked "how many pods are produced per hour?" No answer.

Another question: "As you aren't producing the new cell size yet, what cells are you putting in now, and wouldn't they be the wrong size? " No answer. Near the exit were a few boxes of connectors and orange wiring harness assemblies. "Do you make those wiring harness here or elsewhere"? Answer: "Huh, I don't know. I don't think we build them here." Experts.

I did get them to admit the line was mostly hand assembly and would be soon replaced with automation. So I'm pretty convinced what we saw was nothing close to what the final line may eventually be.

That and our tour guide (admittedly a procurement engineer) kept holding up a 21-70 cell and calling it a battery. Really bugged me.

Just to clear a few things up - this info gathered from the press day articles and asking questions on the tour:

1) Only 21700 cells will be produced and assembled into modules at the Gigafactory
2) Cell production (in the Panasonic portion of the building) is expected to begin by the end of 2016
3) The first auto packs produced at the Gigafactory will be for Model 3 (sometime in 2017). This explains why Tesla made Chelsea unhappy.
4) For the foreseeable future S/X will continue to use 18650 cells and have their packs assembled in Fremont
5) Powerwall/Powerpack will switch to 21700 cells in 2017. I can't remember what the timing is for that but I believe it is before Model 3 is released.
6) Tesla has never shown battery module assembly operations in Fremont so I doubt they will in Reno either. Too much important IP. But we did get to see and photograph completed 18650 modules with the covers off. Module assembly is/will be done on one of the upper floors in Section A. Similarly cell creation is on the 3rd floor of the Panasonic area. I heard that is off limits to Tesla employees because of the Panasonic IP.

 

[trils0n]

6) Tesla has never shown battery module assembly operations in Fremont so I doubt they will in Reno either. Too much important IP. But we did get to see and photograph completed 18650 modules with the covers off. Module assembly is/will be done on one of the upper floors in Section A. Similarly cell creation is on the 3rd floor of the Panasonic area. I heard that is off limits to Tesla employees because of the Panasonic IP.

This was my thoughts about module assembly. Never seen it at Fremont, would be surprised to see it at Reno. They did show the robots installing the finished modules (the ones with the clear plastic covers, same as in the S and X packs) into the black housings that are used in Powerwall and Powerpack. The line with the yellow robots picked up the modules on one side, installed them into the black housings, and the another robot attached the covers. There might have been more going on in that line, but it didn't seem to be all turned on when my tour went through.

 

[SBenson]

Finally watched the gigafactory party video.

In the past when Musk was saying things like 'building the machine that makes the machine' or 'factory as a product', I have never fully comprehended what he meant.

Once I saw it graphically how they are designing the factory, I am simply blown away. The CAD diagram for a factory looked like an integrated-circuit design. Man, this is something. Something very real. If Musk is able to really make this happen, things will transition way faster than what people are expecting.

 

[ggr]

The cells are in the black plastic boxes here:View attachment 187913

Clearly, the tour guides and many of the people we were allowed to interact with were lower tier staff. They may know their areas of expertise, but some were definitely a big cagey.

The battery modules being produced is using 18650's from Panasonic. As per various conversations I had with them, they will need to be redesigned for 21-70 cells at some point.

I suspect that the pack assembly being done right now is not the pack assembly to be done with Gigafactory cell output. The red robot I think is to be part of the new pack assembly, while the yellow ones are the ones currently assembling packs.

View attachment 187914

That photo contains roughly 400 powerwalls, and (I was there) about 40 PowerPacks, which is a few million dollars worth of energy storage ready to be shipped. Since I can't imagine that they sit around for too long, I think the Tesla Energy revenue for Q3 will be significantly higher than for Q1 ($12M IIRC). I wonder what the curve (Q2 that is) will look like?

 

[trils0n]

That photo contains roughly 400 powerwalls, and (I was there) about 40 PowerPacks, which is a few million dollars worth of energy storage ready to be shipped. Since I can't imagine that they sit around for too long, I think the Tesla Energy revenue for Q3 will be significantly higher than for Q1 ($12M IIRC). I wonder what the curve (Q2 that is) will look like?

When I took a picture of those stacks of wooden crates the tour guide said they were just empty boxes. Staging area before they get packed.

 

[ggr]

Ah, bummer. Still encouraging.

 

[Fallenone]

When I took a picture of those stacks of wooden crates the tour guide said they were just empty boxes. Staging area before they get packed.

I was wondering why they were located near an exit for people but far away from loading area... This explains it.

 

[brian45011]

Apparently the last quarterly report from Nevada"

http://diversifynevada.com/uploads/reports/Tesla_Qrtrly_Rpt_Q2_2016.pdf

"This is the final Quarterly Report for the Tesla Project per NRS 360.975, Subsection 2, which reads in part “in addition to the annual reports required to be prepared and submitted pursuant to subsection 1, for the period beginning on September 11, 2014, and ending on July 1, 2016, the Office shall, not less frequently than every calendar quarter, prepare and submit to the Governor and the Director of the Legislative Counsel Bureau for transmittal to the Legislature a report which includes, for the immediately preceding calendar quarter”:

 

[Phil Seastrand]

From the report:

Based on the reported total investment through Q2 2016, GOED has determined Tesla is making satisfactory progress towards meeting the investment requirements necessary to continue the support of the Project as a qualified project.

 

[Rarity]

Continuing my gigafactory employment tracking on LinkedIn, the past two months have shown slower but steady increases in Tesla headcount. July had a 9% increase while August had an 8% increase. Tesla is currently employing at least 154. Compare to Tesla employment totals as of June 30, 2016 provided to the State of Nevada of 356.

Panasonic has continued to hire at a good clip for the gigafactory. July had a 21% increase and August had a 17% increase. Panasonic has 41+ employees in the area (not all of whom work at the gigafactory). Compare to Panasonic employment totals as of June 30, 2016 provided to the State of Nevada of 63.

I have been tracking gigafactory employment for a few months on LinkedIn. The past two months have shown some increases in headcount. May had a 17% increase, but the hiring slowed in June -- only a 7% increase. Currently employing at least 130. Compare to employment totals as of March 31, 2016 provided to the State of Nevada of 317.

Panasonic started hiring in June -- a 16% increase. May saw no increase. Panasonic has 29+ employees in the area (not all of whom work at the gigafactory). Compare to employment totals as of March 31, 2016 provided to the State of Nevada of 52.

 

[jvonbokel]

July had a 9% increase while August had an 8% increase. Tesla is currently employing at least 154. Compare to Tesla employment totals as of June 30, 2016 provided to the State of Nevada of 356.

July had a 21% increase and August had a 17% increase. Panasonic has 41+ employees in the area (not all of whom work at the gigafactory). Compare to Panasonic employment totals as of June 30, 2016 provided to the State of Nevada of 63.

So assuming those growth rates are reflective of the real rates of growth, one could assume the following employment numbers:

Month	Tesla	Panasonic
June 30	356	63
July	388	76
August	419	89

 

[techmaven]

Apparently the last quarterly report from Nevada"

http://diversifynevada.com/uploads/reports/Tesla_Qrtrly_Rpt_Q2_2016.pdf

The investment part of the report:

For Q2 2016, Tesla reports an investment of $72 million, for a PTD investment of $452 million; PENA reports an investment of $74 million for a PTD investment of $202 million. The combined PTD investment of $654 million through Q2 2016 represents a 35% increase from the previous quarter.

It is very interesting to me that this is the first time that Panasonic's investment in a quarter is higher than Tesla's investment. Granted, it isn't by much, but still interesting. Tesla's increase QoQ was $5 million and Panasonic's was $10 million.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Apparently the last quarterly report from Nevada"

http://diversifynevada.com/uploads/reports/Tesla_Qrtrly_Rpt_Q2_2016.pdf

"This is the final Quarterly Report for the Tesla Project per NRS 360.975, Subsection 2, which reads in part “in addition to the annual reports required to be prepared and submitted pursuant to subsection 1, for the period beginning on September 11, 2014, and ending on July 1, 2016, the Office shall, not less frequently than every calendar quarter, prepare and submit to the Governor and the Director of the Legislative Counsel Bureau for transmittal to the Legislature a report which includes, for the immediately preceding calendar quarter”:

Thanks for posting!

Kind of an odd signature to that letter. Almost looks like a landscape with a bird flying above...

 

[brian45011]

Kind of an odd signature to that letter. Almost looks like a landscape with a bird flying above...

The prior signatory for the letters has left government for a position with a developer.

 

[brian45011]

It is very interesting to me that this is the first time that Panasonic's investment in a quarter is higher than Tesla's investment..

Not much of the new construction for the second phase had started before June 30th.

 

[techmaven]

Not much of the new construction for the second phase had started before June 30th.

It is interesting to note Panasonic's investment into the first phase. For those that still doubt the Gigafactory, it is a tangible non-Tesla datapoint. $202 million in cell making equipment alone is quite a bit, but I expect that Panasonic's investment into the first phase is quite high.

I forgot to ask if the ancillary, not complicated parts, like the drying racks are owned by Tesla or by Panasonic.

 

[brian45011]

It is interesting to note Panasonic's investment into the first phase. For those that still doubt the Gigafactory, it is a tangible non-Tesla datapoint. $202 million in cell making equipment alone is quite a bit, but I expect that Panasonic's investment into the first phase is quite high.

I forgot to ask if the ancillary, not complicated parts, like the drying racks are owned by Tesla or by Panasonic.

From the latest 10Q:
" Under our arrangement with Panasonic, we plan to purchase the full output from their production equipment located at the Gigafactory at negotiated prices. As these terms convey a right to use the production related assets as defined within ASC 840 – Leases , we will consider these leased assets beginning with the start of cell production in 2016. This will result in us recording the value of such assets within property, plant, and equipment in our consolidated balance sheet with a corresponding liability recorded to financing obligations."

Deciphering the gobbledygook, I think that means Tesla will effectively own all the equipment at the GF and will pay Panasonic for it with rental payments over the term of the lease, ie .Panasonic is financing Tesla's purchase of the equipment

 

[techmaven]

From the latest 10Q:
" Under our arrangement with Panasonic, we plan to purchase the full output from their production equipment located at the Gigafactory at negotiated prices. As these terms convey a right to use the production related assets as defined within ASC 840 – Leases , we will consider these leased assets beginning with the start of cell production in 2016. This will result in us recording the value of such assets within property, plant, and equipment in our consolidated balance sheet with a corresponding liability recorded to financing obligations."

Deciphering the gobbledygook, I think that means Tesla will effectively own all the equipment at the GF and will pay Panasonic for it with rental payments over the term of the lease, ie .Panasonic is financing Tesla's purchase of the equipment

True... but I wonder if the drying racks, for instance, is paid by Tesla up front, or purchased by Panasonic.

 

[brian45011]

True... but I wonder if the drying racks, for instance, is paid by Tesla up front, or purchased by Panasonic.

No se, but if I were to guess,sounds more like a final step in cell production than anything related to pack assembly.

 

[JRP3]

Yes I would consider cell aging to be part of cell production. (I'm guessing they are aging racks, since I don't know how you would "dry" a closed cell). I would assume final cell testing would take place after aging to weed out any duds.