Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[chickensevil]

I didn't understand what Elon meant by thinking of the factory as a product, this is version 1. That makes it sound like they will be selling gigafactories? They can't be selling the design, that's open sourced he said. Can someone help me understand?

The way I took it... anyone could technically make their own factory. Nothing is stopping them. Just the same as you could go and do all the painting, building, electrical work, etc, if you were to build your own home. Yet instead, most people will hire people who have the expertise and experience to do that work for them. So the factory-as-a-product, to me, would mean that Tesla would provide their "services" in helping people establish their own gigafactories.

That was how I understood it at least, maybe I am thinking wrong here.

Because the factory isn't just a factory... This is a self-contained thing. It will make it's own power and use that power to turn lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc into a completely finished battery pack for whatever purpose it is being designated for. raw materials in and consumer level finished product out. All without being dependant on the grid, and without impacting the environment in harmful ways.

 

[dhanson865]

I didn't understand what Elon meant by thinking of the factory as a product, this is version 1. That makes it sound like they will be selling gigafactories? They can't be selling the design, that's open sourced he said. Can someone help me understand?

I think what he means is:

1 Global battery production will ramp faster than Tesla can possibly finance
2 Tesla has the best battery production setup
3 He'd rather see all the other new battery factories down the line be like his instead of worse
4 He is putting his money where his mouth is and making it possible for another company to not just reinvent the wheel again to make their battery factory. They can do something better than just mimic him, they'll have access to plans detailed enough to copy exactly.

If they offer to pay consulting fees he might be willing to accept the money but I think he is also just willing to let execs (plus their team) from large corporations tour his facility and copy exactly without paying.

 

[Foghat]

I think what he means is:

1 Global battery production will ramp faster than Tesla can possibly finance
2 Tesla has the best battery production setup
3 He'd rather see all the other new battery factories down the line be like his instead of worse
4 He is putting his money where his mouth is and making it possible for another company to not just reinvent the wheel again to make their battery factory. They can do something better than just mimic him, they'll have access to plans detailed enough to copy exactly.

If they offer to pay consulting fees he might be willing to accept the money but I think he is also just willing to let execs (plus their team) from large corporations tour his facility and copy exactly without paying.

Elon was saying they will get better with each gigafactory iteration, just like the battery, each gigafactory will be better then the last. Production costs will further go down as well as improved
machinery/robots products will come out: gigafactory as product.

So, each gigafactory will be a next iteration product of tesla mind trust. Like iPhone 1 thru 6, gigafactory 1, 2, etc... This will be for tesla owned gigafactories as well as contracted services for other company's Gigafactories. This also may include tesla mass producing gigafactory robots and other associated machinery unique to battery production... Gigafactory as product...

I think Elon was giving a hint toward another business opportunity: mass producing and selling robots and associated machinery (and intelligence/software service & sales). If hundreds or thousands of gigafactories are going to need to be built to satisfy global demand, this could turn out to be a massive revenue source. Now, I'm getting the feeling this was Elon's under the radar "one last thing" from last nights unveiling.

Tesla Robotics as the next new product line??

 

[Foghat]

Holy crow... They could also have a cloud based knowledge center that pushes software updates to all machinery in every gigafactory around the world with improved production techniques or new production techniques, instantaneously resulting in improved production costs and quality through the push of a button. Imagine the implications of time saving interation implementation across entire global manufacturing across all industries... I guess Tesla robotics could be bigger then just battery gigafactories.


Now I know why AI is such an immediate concern for Elon... He might be the one to "summon the demon" if not careful in how he implements this.

 

[jhm]

Gigafactory Financial Modeling

The gigafactory-as-a-product concept is very intriguing. I would encourage people to revisit the gigafactory financial modeling thread for tools on how to value this. In particular, the off-take agreement concept is relevant to effectively leasing a portion of a GF. Consider Oncor's intent to buy 10 GWh, they may actually do well to structure the deal as an off-take agreement.

 

[MSEV]

TeslaRobotics.com is already taken by someone...

 

[Cattledog]

TeslaRobotics.com is already taken by someone...

I have teslamodelx.com but no one has called me to ask if they can have it.

 

[ecarfan]

I have teslamodelx.com but no one has called me to ask if they can have it.

And what was your motivation for registering that? http://teslamodelx.com/

 

[Cattledog]

And what was your motivation for registering that? http://teslamodelx.com/

I started a blog about my ownership experience with Model S, tried to get teslamodels.com but it was already registered, so I then just created one on wordpress that's in my signature. I was pretty active in it for the first couple years but have admittedly waned the last year. I got teslamodelx.com at the same time thinking I'd do the same when I got my model X (which was forecast by Tesla as 'late 2013' at the time). Still waiting for the car so the blog has never started up.

 

[chickensevil]

I started a blog about my ownership experience with Model S, tried to get teslamodels.com but it was already registered, so I then just created one on wordpress that's in my signature. I was pretty active in it for the first couple years but have admittedly waned the last year. I got teslamodelx.com at the same time thinking I'd do the same when I got my model X (which was forecast by Tesla as 'late 2013' at the time). Still waiting for the car so the blog has never started up.

Not really the best thread for this, so I'll post the longer discussion over on the website discussion section... but suffice it to say, someone at Tesla had registered something like 600+ domain names starting from like 2003 all the way to current with the vast majority happening in 2007 and 2014. The old registered email address for all of them was [email protected]... I say it in the past tense since it has all changed now to [email protected], which was likely in light of the recent social engineering attack and DoS/Defacement/DNS Hijack/whatever-you-call-it... Anyway, I'll post more details over in this thread: All Discussion re: Tesla Motors Website Forums

 

[FluxCap]

Charming Lego Gigafactory rendering, via Reddit:

Lego Tesla Gigafactory No. 1 | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

 

[AlMc]

Charming Lego Gigafactory rendering, via Reddit:

Lego Tesla Gigafactory No. 1 | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

View attachment 80636

Is this the 'original' design or the one that needs to be 20-50% larger with the introduction of stationary storage? :wink:

Thanks for posting.....just having some fun on mother's day.

 

[VolkerP]

50% larger means, they must add one floor.

 

[jhm]

50% larger means, they must add one floor.

That's a cool idea. I suppose that would do it from a floor space point of view. I would expect that the plant will be laid out with lots of parallel production lines. So if the dimensions are already optimal for the length of a production line integrating first and second floors, then a third floor might throw this off. So they may need to make it longer in the dimension that sets out more parallel lines.

From the outset I have wondered if they simply anticipated the need to build out multiple GF building in this same campus. If so, the extra capacity could just be half of another building. It will be interesting to see how this works out.

Has there been any reaction from Nevada? This could mean another 3250 jobs for the area. Take that, Texas Auto Dealers.

 

[vgrinshpun]

50% larger means, they must add one floor.

If foundation/structure can bear it, it would be better to add two floors, even if one floor kept vac and for a while. Incremental cost would be very reasonable.

 

[hobbes]

50% larger means, they must add one floor.

Hm... don´t really believe they are going to take the roof off that was already built.
Seems more likely to me that they´ll add more to the sides, as the building is meant
to be modular in that dimension anyway as far as I understand.

 

[AlMc]

Hm... don´t really believe they are going to take the roof off that was already built.
Seems more likely to me that they´ll add more to the sides, as the building is meant
to be modular in that dimension anyway as far as I understand.

I am not an engineer but adding height (weight) may not be feasible based on the load handling ability of the steel already in place. I suspect expansion is as you have predicted.

 

[InTheShadows]

If foundation/structure can bear it, it would be better to add two floors, even if one floor kept vac and for a while. Incremental cost would be very reasonable.

Building code wise there is quite a difference between three floors and four.

 

[pmadflyer]

Civil Engineering student here. when designing a structure, one takes into account the forces of maximum predicted loads and load combinations (ex: wind + rain + dead load + live load + earthquake), and then designs a structure that can withstand all load cases plus a safety margin. This is because steel is never uniformly strong, a column that is cooled or handled slightly different at the mill might already be stressed before even being erected. While these safety margins might allow a third floor to theoretically be supported, there must still be a certain safety margin above this to meet code.

It is likely that the factory will be extended horizontally or utilized differently within the currently planned dimensions rather than vastly increasing cost to build higher vertically. As said above, once you start going up, the code requirements, and construction costs sky-rocket. It's far easier to lift more steel 72 feet vertically (GF roof height), than it is to lift the amount of steel needed for another level an extra 35 feet. Since the steel required to support the extremely heavy equipment is already so large, the added height and weight would require larger cranes and more critical picks. larger cranes, with more line parts (more pulleys) are also slower, and more expensive to operate.

If I recall correctly, Tesla bought an extremely large piece of land, far larger than the factory. Perhaps some will be utilized for large satellite factories, in addition to the satellite factories that may be run by suppliers on the GF land (pad already cleared nearby for this purpose).

 

[favo]

From Tesla posts 30 job openings for gigafactory

Tesla Motors' gigafactory workforce is starting to take shape as the company posted 30 job openings for its $5 billion lithium-ion battery plant being built just east of Reno.