Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[MartinAustin]

6,500 workers over 3 shifts?

Yeah you gotta assume it's a 24hr operation... keeping those machines churning!!!

6500/3 = 2166, and the shifts can be staggered for different types of workers, so there won't be 4300 cars all trying to switch places at the same time.

 

[chickensevil]

My first reaction from looking at Tesla's new non-diamond-shaped diamond-shaped factory photo is:

• No way is that enough parking for 6,500 workers.
• No way is that enough roadway for 6,500 workers.
• No way is that enough roadway for all the trucks and deliveries coming to and fro.
• Imagine running a million gallons per minute through a straw. Right. Not gonna happen.
• They're gonna need more and wider roads.

You are thinking about this too deeply... it doesn't even show the train tracks cutting through the area. Which is actually where most of the deliveries will be coming from (and shipping out).

I also count 56 parking "dividers" zooming in on the image it looks like each row supports about 10 spots per side or 20 spots (just going to ignore the ends) which would be 1,120 or so parking spots so it does seem a little low for parking, but they are likely to have tons of carpooling and ride share and commuting programs in order to reduce the need for a ton of parking. Think about it, if everyone took a car load (4 people) there would be enough parking for 4,480 people. There is likely to be bus routes and such to and from this building... and given that this is very likely to be LEED Gold Certified they are probably going to require green cars and commuting in order to get a parking spot at all... otherwise you can take the bus (or company shuttle, or whatever they work out).

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I guess my point is, this is an artistic rendering and it will likely look a bit different down the road.

 

[CalDreamin]

Industrial plants that must operate 24/7/365 have four teams of shift workers. Shifts rotate between three teams on and one team off. I've no idea if battery factories operate that way.

 

[chickensevil]

News report from New Mexico... this is really sneaky news info from their governor because they really feel confident there will be a second factory and they are already wheeling and dealing for it

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Another video for New Mexico information. From Albuquerque's perspective.

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"Our incentive package was so good, Tesla asked if we can just move closer to California because proximity was a big deal"

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News report from Nevada perspective... obviously very positive angle reporting here.

 

[bollar]

No idea how you found that, but thanks. My curiosity is now satisfied.

Now, it looks like the Gov is about to speak...

I teleported to the future (next Tuesday) and asked Siri.

 

[chickensevil]

I teleported to the future (next Tuesday) and asked Siri.

See I was going to suggest you used Shazam or some such and just played the song into your phone that way, close enough!

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News report from New Mexico... this is really sneaky news info from their governor because they really feel confident there will be a second factory and they are already wheeling and dealing for it

So a thought occurred to me, with all this talk about a second factory, we might need a second thread to discuss all of that now, so we can speculate and post! Mostly kidding...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

You are thinking about this too deeply... it doesn't even show the train tracks cutting through the area. Which is actually where most of the deliveries will be coming from (and shipping out).

I also count 56 parking "dividers" zooming in on the image it looks like each row supports about 10 spots per side or 20 spots (just going to ignore the ends) which would be 1,120 or so parking spots so it does seem a little low for parking, but they are likely to have tons of carpooling and ride share and commuting programs in order to reduce the need for a ton of parking. Think about it, if everyone took a car load (4 people) there would be enough parking for 4,480 people. There is likely to be bus routes and such to and from this building... and given that this is very likely to be LEED Gold Certified they are probably going to require green cars and commuting in order to get a parking spot at all... otherwise you can take the bus (or company shuttle, or whatever they work out).

- - - Updated - - -

I guess my point is, this is an artistic rendering and it will likely look a bit different down the road.

In Maine, Bath Iron Works employs just over 5,000 workers. You see park and rides all over the place. I suspect there'd be a lot of multi-person transportation encouraged, but I doubt you'll see any BYD electric buses,

 

[Jack6591]

A "Net Zero Energy Factory" of this scale will change manufacturing worldwide.

 

[Chrisr400cc]

Is there any way to watch a replay of the announcement? I got cut off right when Elon got up to talk.

 

[jhm]

A "Net Zero Energy Factory" of this scale will change manufacturing worldwide.

This is what sunbelt politicians should be thinking about, how to get other businesses to come in and transform sunlight into manufacuring jobs. Arizona is particularly assbackward when it comes to solar energy. Could this be why its not getting one of the three Gigafactories?

 

[Tyl]

This factory and every new factory of this magnitude will need to be Platinum LEED certified to meet Elon's standards. Gold LEED certified will not be good enough!

 

[30seconds]

A net zero factory is also a great way to increase margins. The build out costs are capitalized and then the lower ongoing energy production costs go straight to bottom line.

 

[Cattledog]

If the next factory is for fixed storage, there's probably an optimal location for that so that the storage packs travel the least distance (California and Texas come to mind.) If the next plant is for cars, it seems pretty obvious that the next gigafactory will be next to the next car plant. So whatever city/state/country gets that probably gets a twofer.

 

[MuskForPresident]

Does anyone know where they get the $100B of economic impact over 20 years = $5B/year number from? If they have 6,500 workers making $25/hr = $50k/year that equates to $325MM in salaries paid/year.

How does that equate to $5B in economic impact?

 

[LakeForest]

Factory appears to have gotten upsized. 15 million square feet vs 10 million, and 50 GWH battery production versus the 35 GWH previously stated.

 

[BlueTan85]

How much water will this factory require? I assume minimal. Is water at all used in any of the stages of manufacturing batteries? Just curious.

 

[jhm]

A net zero factory is also a great way to increase margins. The build out costs are capitalized and then the lower ongoing energy production costs go straight to bottom line.

Excellent point. The cost will be depreciated, but over 20 years or so it won't be much per year. And it won't impact cash flow.

Another interesting angle is that Tesla will get electricity from the grid at a discount for 8 years. So let's see, you have net zero electricity needs, 100s of MWh of battery packs lying around needing to be tested, and the grid will sell you electricity at a discount. What to do? Sell power back at peak prices for a profit, perhaps. Looks like NV won't be needing those old oil fired peakers any more.

Edit: Could depreciation reduce the tax liability? If so, then the renewable power assets could have a net positive impact on cash flow, so long as the tax savings are inexcess of maintenace expense.

 

[aronth5]

Would love to know what on Peterson is thinking after today's Gigafactory announcement especially when he expressed these sentiments last year. Haven't heard from him in awhile so maybe he has seen the light!

"I see no reason to believe that Panasonic will spend another $200 billion of shareholder capital to expand manufacturing capacity so that it can sell batteries at a loss in order to help Tesla reach an industry beating 25% gross margin target. When it comes to the giga-risk of a giga-factory and related raw material supply chains, Tesla will either have to pay the piper or go it alone."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1657582-teslas-crushing-battery-supply-constraints

 

[jhm]

This article is quite good, http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/09/0...test.html?partner=yahoofinance&_r=0&referrer=

 

[FluxCap]

Honestly, as I read through the incentives, this is a huge reduction in the top line of Tesla's future expenses. I haven't modeled it, but I seriously doubt many analysts had predicted incentives this good in their cost models for the gigafactory and, in fact, for Model III production.

So exciting.