Tesla Gigafactory

[AZ Desert Driver]

Wow - a little done, a whole lot more to go. Glad to see them start - had to happen sometime!!

One could ponder - use today's panel efficiency (25%) or next years (26%) or next decades (50%???). When do you pull the trigger on today's vs future efficiency and cost?

 

[dhanson865]

Wow - a little done, a whole lot more to go. Glad to see them start - had to happen sometime!!

One could ponder - use today's panel efficiency (25%) or next years (26%) or next decades (50%???). When do you pull the trigger on today's vs future efficiency and cost?

Panels aren't that efficient for a project that size, Try do we use last years 17% to 20% panels, next years 19% to 22% panels or next decades %25-30% panels?

SpaceX might use higher efficiency than that but for anything inside earth's atmosphere you probably aren't going to pay the price premium.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Panels aren't that efficient for a project that size, Try do we use last years 17% to 20% panels, next years 19% to 22% panels or next decades %25-30% panels?

SpaceX might use higher efficiency than that but for anything inside earth's atmosphere you probably aren't going to pay the price premium.

yep-your numbers are better than my swag's. question remains- now, or wait until its better?
so panasonics is the best today. do you think its coming from buffalo plant? are they using the latest, or consuming inventory?

 

[JRP3]

I'd assume puting them up now makes the most sense. A few percentage points sometime in the future can't make up for years with no panels at all.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Kinda like => Buy a model S now, with "old" battery tech, old driver assistance - or wait until a bigger battery, more superchargers, more perfect car is available.
answer => buy now, enjoy now, A few percentage points sometime in the future can't make up for years with no panels at all.

Perfect is a constant pursuit that is never achieved - you can wait forever.

 

[mongo]

Assuming identical panel area, same panel cost, and fixed electric rates, it's worse_percentage/(better_percentage- worse_percentage) * number_of_years

These are the years of production you need to recoup one year of not having panels:

17% panel vs 18% panels -> 17 years to replace the missing year's generation
17% vs 19% -> 8.5 years to catch up
17% vs 20% -> 5.6 years to catch up
Of course, after that point, the new panels are better to have.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Assuming identical panel area, same panel cost, and fixed electric rates, it's worse_percentage/(better_percentage- worse_percentage) * number_of_years

These are the years of production you need to recoup one year of not having panels:

17% panel vs 18% panels -> 17 years to replace the missing year's generation
17% vs 19% -> 8.5 years to catch up
17% vs 20% -> 5.6 years to catch up
Of course, after that point, the new panels are better to have.

And---if I buy a good car now, I can buy a better car a few years from now and upgrade/refresh.
These newly installed "old" panels can give years of service while racks are installed on the rest of the roof. Then, the old ones can be refreshed - if economics dominate. Now, it may be Optics that dominate. [why would a company that makes solar panels NOT have panels on its massive roof]- Even if the panels they are installing are bottom of the barrel, optics requires them to be installed. And I doubt if Tesla is buying the dregs.

 

[mongo]

And---if I buy a good car now, I can buy a better car a few years from now and upgrade/refresh.
These newly installed "old" panels can give years of service while racks are installed on the rest of the roof. Then, the old ones can be refreshed - if economics dominate. Now, it may be Optics that dominate. [why would a company that makes solar panels NOT have panels on its massive roof]- Even if the panels they are installing are bottom of the barrel, optics requires them to be installed. And I doubt if Tesla is buying the dregs.

Yah, swap the panels, donate to developing country, take the write off. (replacement cost hurts ROI of new panels in general).
I'm assuming GF2 is making the panels for GF1, could be lower efficiency screened parts.

 

[JRP3]

Assuming identical panel area, same panel cost, and fixed electric rates, it's worse_percentage/(better_percentage- worse_percentage) * number_of_years

These are the years of production you need to recoup one year of not having panels:

17% panel vs 18% panels -> 17 years to replace the missing year's generation
.

That seems like the only realistic scenario. Greater efficiency jumps would probably take more than one year to achieve.

 

[TintDepot.com]

As I understand it, the Gigafactory is only 30% built. I haven't seen any more building in a while. When are the suppose to add another building.

 

[nwdiver]

As I understand it, the Gigafactory is only 30% built. I haven't seen any more building in a while. When are the suppose to add another building.

Do you mean another section? I think the building just keeps growing...

 

[Electroman]

How does it matter if they add more buildings or not?. What is needed is, when will they reach a run rate of 35 GWh of batteries per year? and can they do it in the existing buildings, or need new ones to be built?

 

[TintDepot.com]

Do you mean another section? I think the building just keeps growing...

Right, I haven't noticed any new sections being added in a while. I was wondering if they were waiting for more cash flow or higher battery demand.

 

[TintDepot.com]

How does it matter if they add more buildings or not?. What is needed is, when will they reach a run rate of 35 GWh of batteries per year? and can they do it in the existing buildings, or need new ones to be built?

I was wondering the same. I wasn't sure if they have space limitations already?

 

[nwdiver]

Right, I haven't noticed any new sections being added in a while. I was wondering if they were waiting for more cash flow or higher battery demand.

The Final GF was supposed to supply 500k Teslas per year and IIRC Elon said they were able to double output per unit area so the existing size is likely sufficient for at least another year or so....

 

[JRP3]

Right, I haven't noticed any new sections being added in a while. I was wondering if they were waiting for more cash flow or higher battery demand.

Panasonic just said they were adding 3 more lines which should take the GF near 35K/year so I assume there is enough room to do so in the existing structure. Or maybe they'll be throwing up another tent.

 

[Cosmacelf]

No, no tents for cell production!! But yeah, it appears the current gigafactory building is big enough for what they need for now. I do expect them to start expanding again, maybe within the next six months.

 

[nwdiver]

No, no tents for cell production!! But yeah, it appears the current gigafactory building is big enough for what they need for now. I do expect them to start expanding again, maybe within the next six months.

I seem to recall Elon saying they made it more space efficient by stacking some of the lines....

 

[mongo]

No, no tents for cell production!! But yeah, it appears the current gigafactory building is big enough for what they need for now. I do expect them to start expanding again, maybe within the next six months.

I thought the new flat spot is a parking lot so they can reclaim the existing lot for more factory...

 

[JRP3]

I thought the new flat spot is a parking lot so they can reclaim the existing lot for more factory...

I was thinking the same.