I have been meaning to post some updated overlays of the Gigafactory construction site based on all of the facts we now know including total footprint, number of phases, leaked renderings and models, etc. I made the overlays and CAD file using the following information:
FACTS
1. Phase 2 Facts
a.) Phase 2 will be built at the northeast corner of the construction site.
b.) Phase 2 will extend two-thirds of the way across the total width of the Gigafactory.
Source:
Compare ground features in
photo of JB showing where phase 2 will be built to
satellite images in Google Maps. If you look at any of my attached overlays, look at the dark brown hill to the north of the Gigafactory which forms a kind of peninsula. Now look at the photo of JB and you will see that the bottom edge of the phase 2 building is clearly a good distance to the left of that peninsula (Note that the phase 2 building depicted by JB is three-dimensional, so be sure to reference the bottom edge). Now look back at my overlay, and you'll probably agree that the depicted phase to building extends two-thirds of the way across the total Gigafactory as I have depicted.
2. Construction on the fifth and final section of block 1 is underway to the south.
Source: See
photo from 2/24/16. Notice that the south wall is open and that there is new material and equipment among the foundation south of the existing portion of block 1, which had laid barren for almost a year (see
video from May 17, 2015 to compare).
3. The Gigafactory will be built in 7 phases or "blocks."
Source: This
video from 7/13/15. Note: a Panasonic representative in
this article from 1/7/16 is quoted as saying that there will be 8 phases, however, I believe that he was either misinformed or that the eighth phase will be the solar panels on the roof. Due to the layout of the site, it does not seem plausible to me that there would be 8 blocks as you will see in the overlay.
4. The Gigafactory will have an approximately 5.8 M sq ft footprint when complete.
Source:
This article.
5. The portion of block 1 that is built is 1,656' X 484' and will be 2100' X 484' once the foundation to the south is complete. Also, note that spacing between buildings is 4' and roof overhang is 2'.
Source: Use of measurement tool in
Google Earth Pro.
6. While some of the design elements have changed over time, the length to width ratios in all three of these renderings of the Gigafactory are the same, and therefore the overhead rendering in point b (below) can be used as a basis for our calculations:
a.)
Photo of a new model of the Gigafactory from 3/16/16
b.) Rendering provided by Tesla and posted on TMC on 1/12/15
here.
c.)
Photo of older Gigafactory model posted on 3/3/15.
Source: Compare solar panel sections on both the
old and
new models. If you assume that the solar panel sections are twice as wide as they are tall as appears to be the case, you will see that both models have the equivalent of 18 panel heights wide by 48 panel heights high (including white sections of roof), or a length to width ratio of 2.7. Similarly, if you take the image from point b above and count the pixels, you will see that it is 335 px by 123 px, or a length to with ratio of 2.7. Therefore, we know that the length to width ratio has remained the same throughout the design process, and we can simply use the overhead image from point b to make the rest of our calculations.
7. Block 1 includes the 484' x 444' foundation to the south of the existing structure.
Source:
In the latest
Gigafactory model from Tesla, the black rectangle outline depicts block 1. Notice that block 1 is evenly spaced vertically along the building by counting the panel sections. Now look at my overlay of the already built structure and the yet to be complete foundation to the south. You will see that the structure is only evenly spaced vertically if block 1 includes the yet to be complete foundation to the south.
8. The Gigafactory will be complete in 2020.
Source:
This article from 3/18/16.
ASSUMPTIONS
1. The Gigafactory will be exactly three times as wide as block 1 and thus 1,452' wide. This seems like a reasonable assumption given that the overlay perfectly matches the rendering (
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/attachments/map-tesla-gigafactory-jpg.146819/) provided by Tesla and posted on TMC on 1/12/15 here (
Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread). It would also seem reasonable to build as many identically sized blocks as possible for simplicity's sake
2. We know from the recent slide of JB, that block 2 will be built at the northeast corner of the property and that it will extend two-thirds of the way across the total width of the Gigafactory, however, the slide is cut off and you cannot see the southern portion of block 2. Since we know that there will be 7 blocks total, there are only three possible configurations:
a.) A layout in which block 2 contains 4 buildings rather than 3. This would mean that block 3 would have only 2 buildings and would require a totally different design from block 2.
b.) If you disagree that block 2 goes two-thirds of the way across, and instead goes halfway across. I modeled this design in SketchUp for grins, and it clearly does not make logical sense (see attached photo with caption "this layout makes no sense"). It would require irregular beam spacing and building subdividing and require additional designs.
c.) The layout I propose in the overlay. This is the simplest design and does not require irregular beam spacing or building subdividing (see attached photos).
3. Beyond the construction of block 2, we do not know the order in which Tesla will build blocks 3 - 7, however, I believe my depiction makes the most sense.
METHOD
1. Using the
measuring tool in Google Earth Pro, I made the following discoveries:
a.) Dimensions of the existing structure (roof corner to roof corner) are 1656' x 484'
b.) Spacing between beams is 40' x 50'4", except for the far left beams, which have a spacing of 27'
c.) Spacing between buildings (beam center to beam center) is 4'.
d.) Roof overhang is 2' in all directions.
e.) Dimensions of foundation to south (based on beam centers) is 480' x 440', which implies that it will be 484' x 444' once roof and wall are installed.
f.) Lengths of all four completed buildings (from north to south): 444', 364', 404', 444'
2. By measuring pixel dimensions of Tesla's
rendering of the Gigafactory I made the following discoveries:
a.) Gigafactory is 335px x 123px, which implies total dimensions of 3956' x 1452' if you assume Gigafactory will be three times as wide as block 1 as discussed above.
b.) Angle of building corners determined to be 38.5 degrees and upper horizontal wall determined to be 71px wide, implying 845' 4 3/4".
3. At this point, I had enough data to fully design the Gigafactory in Sketchup, making minute adjustments on the order of inches to fit my predictions.
SUMMARY (TL;DR)
The Gigafactory will be built in 7 blocks as depicted in the overlay provided and will be completed in 2020 with a total footprint of 5,559,180 sq ft, making it the largest building in the world by footprint. Some sources have indicated that the Gigafactory will be 5.8 M sq ft. The only way I believe this is possible is if the number included auxiliary structures being built along the east of the Gigafactory. The solar panels will be installed in an eighth phase, but probably not until after SolarCity has their
Solar Gigafactory up and running next year. After the completion of block 1 (including the foundation laid to the south), Tesla will build block 2 to the NE, then 3 followed by 4, and so on up to 7 as shown in the overlay. Here are the footprints of each block:
Blocks 1, 4, and 5: 1,016,400 sq ft
Blocks 2, 3, 6, and 7: 627,495 sq ft
TOTAL FOOTPRINT: 5,559,180 sq ft
Please feel free to download my SketchUp file of the Gigafactory here:
Gigafactory1.skp
If you don't have SketchUp, you can download it
here. Let me know what you think! Thanks!
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