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Tesla has 'won' - who fights who now?

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by Sunlight, Dec 1, 2016.

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  1. Sunlight

    Sunlight Member

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    If one of Elon's intentions with Tesla was to accelerate the transition to EVs, then he has succeeded admirably so far.

    EVs have gone from maligned 'fringe' to almost 'mainstream' despite the huffing and puffing of all the nay-sayers and vested interests. It is one thing for 'Big Oil' to slam and ridicule Tesla, quite another to take on all the German manufacturers; Jaguar et al without pissing off a lot of 'important' people.......

    Ditto the manufacturers who have made (or will have to make) U-turns and are now openly saying that EVs are the way forward. And this will all still happen even if it is no longer driven by Tesla.

    Traditional car dealers must see where their future butter is going to come from and they can only fight a losing battle for so long....

    So who will take up the Anti-EVs/Tesla (and others) mantle in the future? Governments are going to have a tough time dealing with this paradigm shift but surely will not be able to stop it - nor want to if it helps public health and environmental issues.

    Many businesses and industries will have to adapt quickly and become 'part of the solution' and not stay as 'part of the problem'...................

    Who or what will emerge as EVs' worst enemy in, say, 5-7 years?
     
  2. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    Operative phrase "almost mainstream". Tesla is still the only company making compelling electric cars.

    Right now if something happened to Tesla the rest of the industry can still pull an about face, cancel the promised future cars and say "See, Tesla's failure proves electric cars don't work."

    (The German government mandate would have to change, too, but there's a lot of time between now and 2030.)

    I don't expect that to happen, and I think you'll be basically right in another couple years when Audi and Jaguar and BMW will supposedly have real, desirable EVs and charging networks to support them and Tesla will be selling a mass market car.
     
    • Like x 2
  3. gavine

    gavine Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast

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    I heard that Chevy is going to require that dealers install DC fast chargers before being allowed to sell the Bolt. I wonder if the dealers are going to be willing to spend the money on the chargers only to sell a car that has little-to-no service revenue. I see this as a major problem for Chevy, unless they want to limit sales which is possible considering battery supply constraints. If the dealers can monetize the chargers, that might help.
     
  4. Barklikeadog

    Barklikeadog Member

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    If Tesla grows large enough, they are going to need traditional car dealers with lot inventory and service.
    As for gas powered, they will be around for a long time. I work in a city where enormous numbers of autos
    parallel park in different spots every day. Who is going to pay for the infrastructure if they were all electric?
    I know that the city has allowed a few people to install chargers on the street, but it isn't going over well
    with other citizens who cry foul over essentially reserving a parking spot.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  5. N5329K

    N5329K Member

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    Remember, Bolt is a compliance car first and foremost. GM is building just enough of them (while losing a reported $9,000 each) to make sure they DON'T have to make substantive changes in their real business model. The Bolt doesn't change their business model. It reinforces it.
    At GM, change happens when someone tells them they have to. Not a day before.
    Robin
     
    • Like x 7
    • Disagree x 1
  6. Sunlight

    Sunlight Member

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    What delicious irony - the last scrap may be between the EV and ICE departments of the same motor manufacturers...!
    And as EVs will win in the end (surely?), the ICE departments may get vicious when cornered and they know the end is coming.

    Imagine BMW (EV division) having FUD and fibs spread by an 'insider' at BMW (ICE section). For certain this will get bloody.....

    It will be very interesting to see how GM actually deals with the Bolt longer term - will it forcibly be kept as a 'niche' vehicle or will they push it hard when they see the positive response to the Bolt (if it comes)? Or indeed just to EVs generally?

    Jumping out of a sinking wobbly boat into another boat at some distance without destabilizing and overturning one (or both) will be a feat in itself.

    And Tesla as a solely EV company can sail on imperviously..............
     
  7. Dstrohl

    Dstrohl Member

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    I dont agree here... I do think that Tesla will have to change, but that doesn't mean they will have to change to the traditional model. They could approach service like they do body shops and certify external companies to work on the cars. For inventory, they could follow their current model but have more inventory cars stashed in wharehouses around the country (like Amazon?). I'm not saying that either of these are the best answer, only that I dont think that HAVE to go down the road of traditional dealers.

    Having said that, personally I don't have a problem with the concept of dealers in general, there are good ones and bad ones, Tesla could also approach this differently and utilize dealers more like apple's retail sales model... The "dealer" could resell the cars, but no discounting, and you have to use their marketing and training.

    I also agree that gas powered will be around for a long time, bit I think the power issue will solve itself pretty quickly as more electric cars reach the market... Once there are enough potential customers, someone will decide to install power outlets on every street as long as they are allowed to keep the money from them, or we will come up with an entirely different approach to electric cars... as autonomous cars are more common, perhaps your car will just drop you off at home and take itself to the charging station to "top off".
     
    • Like x 1
  8. Dstrohl

    Dstrohl Member

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    I think that the minute that electric and hybrid cars began outperforming gas cars, the industry changed. it may take another decade or more to finish it off, but as people start to see electrics being used in NASCAR, or Formula E it will change how people see them.

    In addition, as soon as there is a reasonable electric delivery vehicle out there that can be shown to lower ongoing costs for a delivery company. we will see a landslide of companies moving to it, dragging the infrastructure and legislation along with them. Big Oil can only go so far once companies can save more money doing something else.

    These are not immediate fixes... but, in my mind, they are the two biggest indicators / tipping points, and we are almost there for the first one!

    My opinion:

    5-7 years... still the oil companies... we wont see them go away that quickly, but I think if are asking, who is Tesla's biggest problem in 5-7 years (as opposed to who is EV's biggest problem), I think we will be looking at the various driver unions fighting autonomous vehicles. By then, I think that EV's will be entrenched enough that the fight, will still ongoing, will be much less of an immediate issue, and I think that about then autonomous systems will be mature enough to be used on their own in specific areas, and delivery companies will be seriously considering the question of, "why are we paying for all these drivers when we can have autonomous vehicles do more of the work?". Even that won't change overnight as autonomous systems wont be able to carry packages to a doorstep, or unload cartons at a retail store (yet), but the question be be being raised enough that the teamsters and other groups of organized drivers will be panicking about the future, and lobbying to enact all sorts of restrictions and limits on them.
     
  9. 22522

    22522 Active Member

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    Self.
     
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  10. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    I remember from 2010...

     
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  11. Eclectic

    Eclectic Member

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    If this was intended to mean that the biggest enemy of Tesla (and EVs) will be Tesla, I agree 100%.

    When the Model 3 intro goes the same way that the Model X intro went, Tesla will lose the good will of a huge segment of the mainstream car buying public. The amount of debt Tesla is piling up gives it very little wiggle room to survive a screwed up Model 3 launch.

    My prediction is that while EVs will survive the Model 3 launch, Tesla likely won't.
     
  12. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    I agree that there is a risk, but I don't put it that high. The risk was far greater with the Model S. And I think Tesla learned a valuable lesson with the X. They have a pile of top notch people that they've poached from the big auto makers. There's no real rocket science to doing a line startup. It takes time, money and talent. I think it's far more likely that the M3 slips a year, or has a very slow ramp-up. And I think Tesla has enough goodwill and resources to endure either of those.
     
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  13. OBX John

    OBX John Autonomous Driving Enthusiast

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    Plug in hybrids? They get the advantages of home charging and regen braking, but don't have to deal with finding and waiting for charges on the road if they have gas powered generators instead of bigger batteries.
     
  14. glenhurst

    glenhurst Member

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    I disagree. You're thinking in today's terms. What justification do you have that Tesla would have to resort to dealers? Because some people want to buy a car right off the lot? Perhaps that model will continue, but it doesn't mean Tesla has to follow it.

    As for charging, again you're thinking in today's terms. A 50KW DC fast charger is about $40k installed. That's cheap compared to building a gas station. And the infrastructure for it--the grid--is already in place. That means any business that wants to draw people to itself for an hour or two can put one or more chargers in. Say, grocery stores, shopping malls, strip malls, fitness clubs, you name it. 2018 will be a very interesting year because the Bolt will have been out for more than a year, the Model 3 will be shipping in larger quantities by then, the Nissan Leaf will have been updated, and several other car companies will be showing off and/or delivering their own 200+ mile EVs. The market will respond to the demand for chargers, quickly and easily.
     
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  15. mspohr

    mspohr Active Member

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    This article in Der Spiegel seems to indicate that the German automakers are still dragging their feet and hoping the whole EV thing will go away:
    Asleep at the Wheel
    The government in Berlin fears that German automobile companies are lagging behind as electric cars pick up speed around the world. Faced with immense challenges and the potential loss of tens of thousands of jobs, the industry is still pushing its gas guzzlers.
    Asleep at the Wheel: German Leaders at Odds with Industry over Electric Cars - SPIEGEL ONLINE
     
    • Informative x 2
  16. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    No, Tesla won't need traditional dealerships. They'll continue to enjoy having separate service and sales, with sales in high-traffic areas, and service in other more suitable and cheaper locations.

    For the longer-term I'd hope to see a systemic installation, underwritten by utilities and local government, but ultimately paid for by the electric vehicle owners themselves. There would be a significant installation cost, and to minimize it, you'd want to see streets enabled as a whole, rather than a series of upgrades.

    The problem of it being "reserved parking" is a transitional challenge. If everybody had electric, every parking space would have a charger. As the number of cars increase, there could potentially be a common system where you'd end up only being guaranteed a place on your street, rather than right in front of your house.
     
  17. Sunlight

    Sunlight Member

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    I've been mulling over this recharging scenario for a while as I realize that flat dwellers and street parkers will be the most difficult to 'satisfy' with EVs. And they mainly occur in cities where the push for clean air and EVs will be greatest............

    Ultimately I suspect the solution will be super-rapid charging - say 20 mins for 80% of 200 miles - at 'Power Stops' with cafes attached. As well as 'ordinary' super-charging (2/3 to 3/4 the speed of charge) at malls; shopping centres; gyms etc.

    Then one would charge weekly/bi-weekly/whatever during the day as we do now with fuel. It would be incorporated in morning coffee/bit of laptop work/shopping/social meeting/etc and just become a routine (as it is now "I need to get to the petrol/gas station this morning on the way to work as I'm a little low on petrol/diesel - so I'll leave a little earlier..")

    It is actually such a small mind-set change - and we already make so many concessions with putting up with petrol stations and the mess and smell and often long waits/strikes/delays - not to mention having to 'drive out of my way' to get to a gas depot; checking oil and water; paying out big amounts of cash. Without even starting on accepting polluted cities............
     
  18. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    Excellent article. The challenge for Germany, and the US to a lesser degree, is that the people in these companies have an entire career invested in the ICE. And to eliminate the ICE destroys the value of all of that knowledge. "Deer in the headlights" is precisely accurate. They simply can't believe this is possible.

    They either adopt the Tesla approach, and do what has to be done to get ahead of the game, or they will slowly die. There is no option, and the sooner they come to realize it, and act accordingly, the more likely survival becomes.
     
  19. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    Back to the old fill up mentality.

    I actually think it'd be easier and cheaper to provide low power connections at most spaces in street parking residential neighbourhoods than to build your super fast charger cafes.

    This could be paid for any number of ways, from a simple monthly fee to a traditional charger network like Chargepoint or EVGo.
     
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  20. Barklikeadog

    Barklikeadog Member

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    I'm going to keep playing devils adv here because these are great discussions...

    I believe in the city to get the permits and then to have a charger installed... will run about 5k. And after that another electric vehicle could legally park in 'your spot'. It's not so much a dispute of rich v poor or new vs old... people here see it as a freedom issue where someone is getting a privilege.
     

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