Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla humanoid robot

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Elon doesn't need another CEO compensation plan. There isn't enough original concept and execution risk to justify another, wot, 10% of TSLA's equity.

I will vote against any such proposal, if Tesla's BoD's is so inclined to propose one. I don't think they will. Elon is already adequately incentivized for continued TSLA growth due to his existing 20%+ stake in the company.

I see Elon wanting to spend his time working on his Mars colony project, not working full-time for Tesla. Better that the next CEO is more singularly focused. Elon will doubtless continue as Chief Product Architect. I suspect that's why Teslabot will be used on Mars.
 
Physically, I don't think there's anything impossible.

Intelligence-wise, it's VERY hard. FSD is hard. If anyone is going to be first, I believe it will be Tesla.

Even if you give it a 0.1% chance, the payoff is so huge, it dwarfs everything.
Totally agree with you. But massive resources (money) will be required. What i'm seeing and feeling, is a company going off the rails. The auto business is their profit center. They are increasing production at a break neck pace, mostly ignoring the infrastructure to support the massive increase of total cars in customers hands. Their service is horrendous in many areas of the country. And it sure won't be getting any better with the ratios of cars to available service appointments getting larger by the week. At some time in the future, the tipping point will occur where it is common knowledge that a Tesla is poor quality and a potential money pit. The only saving grace for them (for awhile to come) is lack of major competition. They need to watch out for this, but i think they are oblivious.

Here is Tesla's problem IMO - humans are undesirable factors in all areas of operation. Their answer to every problem is software code. Eliminate the uncertainty factor presented by humans in the loop. Code around or take us out of the loop wherever possible. It's the cold logic of the computer. Hence the push for the Tesla Bot - one more way to get rid of the human. I believe this strategy is doomed to failure. I believe human collaboration (not just in word, but in action) is essential for success.
 
Totally agree with you. But massive resources (money) will be required. What i'm seeing and feeling, is a company going off the rails. The auto business is their profit center. They are increasing production at a break neck pace, mostly ignoring the infrastructure to support the massive increase of total cars in customers hands. Their service is horrendous in many areas of the country. And it sure won't be getting any better with the ratios of cars to available service appointments getting larger by the week. At some time in the future, the tipping point will occur where it is common knowledge that a Tesla is poor quality and a potential money pit. The only saving grace for them (for awhile to come) is lack of major competition. They need to watch out for this, but i think they are oblivious.

Here is Tesla's problem IMO - humans are undesirable factors in all areas of operation. Their answer to every problem is software code. Eliminate the uncertainty factor presented by humans in the loop. Code around or take us out of the loop wherever possible. It's the cold logic of the computer. Hence the push for the Tesla Bot - one more way to get rid of the human. I believe this strategy is doomed to failure. I believe human collaboration (not just in word, but in action) is essential for success.
We don't have all the data required to make a judgement call on your hypothesis, but the combination of anecdote and the data we do have does not portray quite such an extreme situation as you suggest.

1643388647528.png


Nevertheless I can think of a lot of jobs in a typical factory that could usefully be replaced by a general purpose light-duty vision-based humanoid robot. Just a torso on a fixture would be a pretty good start. Then torso on wheeled cart. Then bipedal. So many useful steps on the deployment ladder with a lot of internal use options, and with the potential to make the good human employees do more.

Rather like the lines on those graphs above. What they are showing (when comined with the known and anecdotal data we also have) is that (e.g) post-sale interventions per car that require a onsite tech is going down, such that the vehicles per location/etc is going up.

Mind you, as anyone who has read my previous posts on this subject will know, there is certainly a need to keep a watchful eye on these lines and ask for better data so as to have a more informed view.
 
One of the most commonly pushed reasons why we cannot adopt sustainable energy quickly but must do it over a multi-decadal period is because the job is too big. It would cost too much and we can't afford to do that. So we have to wean ourselves off fossil fuel gradually, very slowly.

Robot labor that transforms the economy solves that nicely. Formations of robots would be relatively cheap to mass-produce but could be used to cheaply install and maintain huge solar and battery facilities in the desert. They could lower the cost of solar cell production and allow factories to be placed in areas of sparse human labor. Domestic robots could be trained to open/close windows and shades as needed to maximize or minimize solar heat gain/loss to reduce energy demand. Supercharging the economy with cheap robot labor would remove the biggest reason people say we must wean ourselves off oil slowly. The benefits to the economy and humanity are so great they cannot be separated from the mission.

Certainly, robots will have their own division within Tesla, separate from the auto division, but there is no practical or fundamental reason why it would be beneficial to spin robots off into a separate company. History is full of successful conglomerates with widely varying business segments.
 
We don't have all the data required to make a judgement call on your hypothesis, but the combination of anecdote and the data we do have does not portray quite such an extreme situation as you suggest.
Yes, i'm reacting emotionally without having supporting data. I just don't see FSD or the Tesla Bot working out. I don't believe they have it in them.
 
From a software perspective, one would think Optimus should be able to launch much sooner than FSD, especially for a defined set of actions in a set location.

No idea on how hard the balanced bi-pedal solution will be, but Tesla excels at physical engineering so I‘m pretty optimistic they will be able to crack that fairly swiftly (if they haven’t already)
Above from main thread.

Great stuff from Dave - mostly bot related:
 
Totally agree with you. But massive resources (money) will be required. What i'm seeing and feeling, is a company going off the rails. The auto business is their profit center. They are increasing production at a break neck pace, mostly ignoring the infrastructure to support the massive increase of total cars in customers hands. Their service is horrendous in many areas of the country. And it sure won't be getting any better with the ratios of cars to available service appointments getting larger by the week. At some time in the future, the tipping point will occur where it is common knowledge that a Tesla is poor quality and a potential money pit. The only saving grace for them (for awhile to come) is lack of major competition. They need to watch out for this, but i think they are oblivious.

Here is Tesla's problem IMO - humans are undesirable factors in all areas of operation. Their answer to every problem is software code. Eliminate the uncertainty factor presented by humans in the loop. Code around or take us out of the loop wherever possible. It's the cold logic of the computer. Hence the push for the Tesla Bot - one more way to get rid of the human. I believe this strategy is doomed to failure. I believe human collaboration (not just in word, but in action) is essential for success.
Androids will be viewed by Elon/Tesla as helping humans achieve more. I think Palantir have similar views. MBA led organisations are the ones that want to replace pesky talking-back humans.

Tesla / Elon hire people for their abilities, MBAs do it for empire-building or as a necessary evil and then try to control with rules, handbooks, threats, budgets and the like.
 
Something occurred to me last night while I was watching the latest episode of Boba Fett on Disney+.

When Tesla does get Optimus working with at least a rudimentary AI package for navigating the world and voice interaction with people, they will possess a HUGE potential for multiple types of products. Imagine a Tesla robotic Teddy Bear which is mobile under it's own power and can interact with children in a basic capacity. Such a toy would sell like GANGBUSTERS. Or simple robotic pets for companionship, all they would require is the world navigation and voice interaction software and I think tons of people would buy them.

Optimus might be front and center right now, but the AI portion of Optimus has massive potential for a myriad of products as well.
 
Bots are significantly easier to launch than FSD as there is far less of a safety issue. non-humanoid robots are already dispersed widely in manufacturing etc, and are already entering warehouse environments WITHOUT anything close to the advanced vision AI Tesla has already developed. There is no regulatory hurdle to cross for Tesla to release the first generation Optimus.

 
Bots making solar panels and storage in solar powered factories.
Bots erecting solar PV installations, with everything delivered by Tesla semi, which of course was charged from solar with storage.
Bots mining materials to make solar PV, using only electric machines.

I get excited by how quickly everything spirals down to zero emissions. It’s been called the “Solar Singularity”. Happens with or without bots, but faster with.