Tesla HW 4.0?

[nicksy]

I haven't seen discussion of this anywhere. On the Autonomous Investor's day, Elon had the following to say about HW 4.0 (the second revision of the NN chip @ 1:43:20):

He says:
- it's two years away
- it's about 3x better than the current system

Do you think Tesla will offer a free upgrade to HW 4.0 to those who buy the FSD upgrade now? I can't imagine the new FSD chip not leading to better FSD capabilities. It'd be kinda shitty to market cars as having all the hardware needed for FSD, but then not upgrading them in 2021 after charging $6000 right now.

On the other hand, if Tesla sells 1.5 million cars in between now and when HW 4.0 is out, the cost (in silicon and service center costs) for Tesla to upgrade the cars would be extremely high. (The exact cost would depend on the % of buyers who purchase the FSD upgrade). I've also read that Tesla might be building their own radar in house. I'd also wonder if they'd upgrade that for FSD buyers.

Would be great if someone on Twitter with a lot of followers can ask Elon this for a definitive answer.

 

[glide]

No. Why would they?

They will upgrade you to HW 3 if needed and that’s as far as it will go. You get what is required for FSD. Not the latest and greatest.

And if all else fails, they will just rebrand the offering again.

 

[lambodiablo205]

I doubt HW3 vehicles will be upgraded to HW4.

HW4 is more likely to include better radar and cameras, which might require a whole new harness. The last thing they would want to do is bottleneck themselves by having to conform to (what will at that future time) 4+ year old cameras and radar.

 

[diplomat33]

The only way Tesla would upgrade owners to AP4 for free is if AP3 still completely failed to deliver FSD. But I think that is very unlikely. More likely, Tesla will be able to deliver FSD on AP3 (just not as good as AP4) so they will consider they kept their FSD promise. After all, Tesla is obligated to deliver FSD to AP2 owners but they are not obligated to continue to give them the latest and greatest FSD for free.

 

[im.thatoneguy]

I can almost guarantee they will. Why? Cost savings.

TeslaNetwork vehicle hits and kills a pedestrian... and it will eventually. $10 million dollar settlement. That pays for tens of thousands of upgrades.

Every time a car on FSD scrapes a wall: $5k in repairs. That pays for a couple upgrades.

Tesla is covering the liability for FSD while on the Tesla Network. That means if HW4 can reduce the chances of liability Tesla will be anxious to upgrade your car and reduce their liability. Chips are cheap lawsuits are expensive. Friend was sued for a fender bender (Only $400 property damage). The insurance ended up settling for tens of thousands of dollars without any medical bills beyond a doctor checkup to confirm the person was uninjured.

 

[nicksy]

> The only way Tesla would upgrade owners to AP4 for free is if AP3 still completely failed to deliver FSD.

If it delivers FSD, why is there a need for HW 4.0?

 

[diplomat33]

> The only way Tesla would upgrade owners to AP4 for free is if AP3 still completely failed to deliver FSD.

If it delivers FSD, why is there a need for HW 4.0?

Because FSD can always be even better. It is always possible to have an even faster computer than can process data better. So if Tesla can develop a faster computer, why not put it in cars?

 

[dgatwood]

> The only way Tesla would upgrade owners to AP4 for free is if AP3 still completely failed to deliver FSD.

If it delivers FSD, why is there a need for HW 4.0?

Power consumption. The AP computer is a pig right now, and it has to be active for Sentry Mode.

HW2.5, for example, draws 300W while in operation. If you could cut that to 30W, you'd go from 1 MPH of battery drain while Sentry Mode is active to 0.1 MPH. If left overnight, that's the difference between losing 12 miles of range and losing a little over 1 mile.

HW3 is supposedly about 100W (unconfirmed), which is better than 300W, but still a long way from ideal for something that you'd prefer to be able to leave running 24x7. It would be great for the power draw to be single-digit watts or less.

 

[Joel]

Power consumption. The AP computer is a pig right now, and it has to be active for Sentry Mode.

HW2.5, for example, draws 300W while in operation. If you could cut that to 30W, you'd go from 1 MPH of battery drain while Sentry Mode is active to 0.1 MPH. If left overnight, that's the difference between losing 12 miles of range and losing a little over 1 mile.

HW3 is supposedly about 100W (unconfirmed), which is better than 300W, but still a long way from ideal for something that you'd prefer to be able to leave running 24x7. It would be great for the power draw to be single-digit watts or less.

72W

 

[dgatwood]

72W
View attachment 411395

They're also claiming only 57W power consumption for HW2.5, which we know is nowhere near the maximum power consumption for that hardware, so I trust those numbers approximately as far as I can throw them. :-(

 

[CarlK]

No. Every new iPhone could take better pictures and surf the web a littler faster. That does not obligate Apple to give free upgrade to existing iPhone owners.

 

[TesLou22]

I can almost guarantee they will. Why? Cost savings.

TeslaNetwork vehicle hits and kills a pedestrian... and it will eventually. $10 million dollar settlement. That pays for tens of thousands of upgrades.

Every time a car on FSD scrapes a wall: $5k in repairs. That pays for a couple upgrades.

Tesla is covering the liability for FSD while on the Tesla Network. That means if HW4 can reduce the chances of liability Tesla will be anxious to upgrade your car and reduce their liability. Chips are cheap lawsuits are expensive. Friend was sued for a fender bender (Only $400 property damage). The insurance ended up settling for tens of thousands of dollars without any medical bills beyond a doctor checkup to confirm the person was uninjured.

1:43:21 Investor “What’s the primary design objective of the next generation chip?”
1:43:26 Elon “ we don’t want to talk too much about the next generation chip...but...ah...it’s...um...”
1:43:33 Pete “Safety”
1:43:35 Elon “It’ll be at least let’s say three times better than the current system”

 

[Fred Thompson]

Tesla should consider allowing a tesla vehicle owner with FSD the option to transfer the FSD from their vehicle to a new Tesla vehicle. Tesla would have more owners buying FSD with owners remaining loyal to the brand.

 

[CarlK]

Tesla should consider allowing a tesla vehicle owner with FSD the option to transfer the FSD from their vehicle to a new Tesla vehicle. Tesla would have more owners buying FSD with owners remaining loyal to the brand.

Unlike to happen. FSD will eventually worth more than the car itself.

 

[im.thatoneguy]

Tesla should consider allowing a tesla vehicle owner with FSD the option to transfer the FSD from their vehicle to a new Tesla vehicle. Tesla would have more owners buying FSD with owners remaining loyal to the brand.

Ive suggested this before to generate quick revenue for Tesla. Offer a "refresh" to customers. Take a trade in. Resell FSD again to a new customer and sell a new car to an existing customer with FSD transferred. Would be a clever trick to boost demand. Sell 2 cars and make tne profit on selling FSD software that you "strip" from the trade in a second time.

 

[Octo]

1:43:21 Investor “What’s the primary design objective of the next generation chip?”
1:43:26 Elon “ we don’t want to talk too much about the next generation chip...but...ah...it’s...um...”
1:43:33 Pete “Safety”
1:43:35 Elon “It’ll be at least let’s say three times better than the current system”

It’s puzzling that the actual cars are very good with such an obviously unprepared CEO running the show. “let’s say three times better...”.

Also the “deer in the headlights” look and winged answer when someone asked him how they’ll prevent Robotaxi passengers from interfering.

 

[drubby82]

No. Every new iPhone could take better pictures and surf the web a littler faster. That does not obligate Apple to give free upgrade to existing iPhone owners.

The things is is that you pay for the FSD not the computer so yes if you spend 7000 dollars on a program it needs to work no matter what it takes. This isn’t a cell phone that you wanna upgrade every year.

 

[banned-66611]

More likely, Tesla will be able to deliver FSD on AP3 (just not as good as AP4)

Depends if people will settle for less than they paid for I guess. If it doesn't summon from 2000 miles away or drive you to work while you take a nap they won't be happy.

Maybe that's why Tesla has been downgrading FSD over the years. Anyone who bought it later gets the crappy version that isn't really full self driving, and anyone who bought the original one in 2016/17 gets a HW4 upgrade to their then decade old vehicles.

Or maybe they are just hoping that many of those cars have been sold on or scrapped or written off by then so they don't have to deliver.

 

[diplomat33]

Depends if people will settle for less than they paid for I guess. If it doesn't summon from 2000 miles away or drive you to work while you take a nap they won't be happy.

Maybe that's why Tesla has been downgrading FSD over the years. Anyone who bought it later gets the crappy version that isn't really full self driving, and anyone who bought the original one in 2016/17 gets a HW4 upgrade to their then decade old vehicles.

Or maybe they are just hoping that many of those cars have been sold on or scrapped or written off by then so they don't have to deliver.

Tesla made the mistake of promoting and selling the final finished version of FSD right out of the gate before they were anywhere near ready. The description of FSD where you can summon your car driverless from the other side of the country, that's a totally finished L5. Tesla is a long way from that that. Since it has taken Tesla a lot longer to get there than expected, Tesla is now selling the intermediary steps like "feature complete with driver supervision". There are a bunch of intermediary steps on the path to full autonomy. Tesla should have started by selling the intermediary steps first and only selling "finished L5" when they actually had "finished L5".

 

[Watts_Up]

Tesla made the mistake of promoting and selling the final finished version of FSD right out of the gate before they were anywhere near ready. The description of FSD where you can summon your car driverless from the other side of the country, that's a totally finished L5. Tesla is a long way from that that. Since it has taken Tesla a lot longer to get there than expected, Tesla is now selling the intermediary steps like "feature complete with driver supervision". There are a bunch of intermediary steps on the path to full autonomy. Tesla should have started by selling the intermediary steps first and only selling "finished L5" when they actually had "finished L5".

Honestly, could Tesla really offer L5 FSD with the current hardware?

- Driving on a freeway for hours without intervention might be possible.

- But city driving is quite challenging even for a normal person.

- There are situations, like making a left tun in a busy intersection with no separate lane and traffic light
controlling the traffic where cars need to stop and pedestrian have to wait for a signal.

- Similar situation would be to pass one of those delivery vans or ride-share taxi stopped and blocking a lane in a two way street.

- About exiting from a driveway and merging into the traffic. You will need additional cameras at the front of the car to do that.

I found those situations been sometime a real nightmare.
And after waiting for a while I might have decided to forced my way in an unconformable, and sometime not very safe manner.

I imagine that a self driving car, would have difficulty to judge if a coming car or a pedestrian would let this driver less car to pass.

So a self driving car might be stock for ever in this kind of situations, and the passengers might then just walk away
as they choose to use a taxi to save time.

Don't the Taxi have the bad reputation to cut you off all the time!!

What about sirens from emergency vehicles. I assume that those emergency vehicles
will require to send a radio signal to clear their path and avoid collisions with self driving cars.