Given that inventory and production can’t keep up with demand I’m not sure what I’d bet on happening as far as incentives in the near future.
I do think Tesla, be it with their cars or energy equipment, tries to keep reducing the cost to consumers in every way possible. Battery Day was a good example of how they squeak out better numbers and they have consistently since we became Tesla owners noticed how the savings gets passed on to those ordering.
My personal opinion is that I wouldn't bet on a price reduction for another year. Between PSPS and work from home, Tesla has probably a 6 month backlog of orders anyway, so they have no incentives to reduce the cost for a while. They have to be battery constrained for the next couple years with 2 new factories coming on line and the cybertruck/Semi being rolled out. Then again, Elon keeps on surprising everyone...
All that being said, the Federal incentive program runs out in 2022 (unless we have a change in Congress next year maybe). If it were me, I'd order now to at least lock in the 22% incentive next year. Waiting for a possible decrease in 2021 increases the odds that you get your installation delayed to 2022 and only get 10% credit, which most likely would more than offset any potential price decrease.
If it is something you are confident you want, even at the current price, I would order now to reserve your place in line. Historically, Tesla has been very good about re-pricing contracts if prices do go down (in part because their cancellation policy is pretty generous - most likely the worst case is you are out the $100 deposit, and sometimes they even refund that.) So, if you are placing an order today for an install in 2021, then if prices do go back down for 2021, you should be able to re-price. If not, at least you get your delivery sooner than if you wait to 2021 to order (and, worst case, can't get an install in 2021, though I expect the supply issues will be worked out such that won't be an issue if you order early in 2021.) And again, unless you get something different to sign from Tesla, the worst case would be losing $100 if you decide not to install at the current prices after all.Thanks - I'm also wondering if it's worth ordering it now, even though I've been told that it wouldn't be installed this year
Thanks - I'm also wondering if it's worth ordering it now, even though I've been told that it wouldn't be installed this year
Well the wildfires out West likely will be around for sometime along with power outages from them (PG&E told Californians PSPS could extend out 10 years) so the heavy demand created by just this is great. That’s not factoring in utilities all over raising electricity rates. With climate change increasing natural disasters from hurricanes, tornadoes, severe storms like what decimated that area of Iowa recently, plus flooding I think it’s going to be more important for families to have power back up and solar in the coming years.
I guess I would say by waiting to order you’ll be placing yourself further down the list of orders to be filled. There’s also the question of how fast Tesla and others can produce batteries for these products in addition to the need for supplying EVs and Power-and-MegaPacks.
Last October Calif had its big wildfire/PSPS event. Teslas orders rose so rapidly depleting inventory that people who ordered then (one of my neighbors) couldn’t get installed until March. We put our deposit down 1st week of January 2020, were suppose to have our solar installed end of March. PWs weren’t going to be able to be installed until the fall due to demand and teams. Covid happened. We just got our install done in August/Sept with inspection last week. Still waiting for PTO. Scheduling has varied by area of the country, how many orders, and availability of install teams. All worth taking into consideration when deciding to order now or wait.