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Tesla Investor Day Discussion
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Farzad on MP3 - I haven't watched yet:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHySghF-VRYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHySghF-VRY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHySghF-VRYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHySghF-VRY
There is apparently enough Lithium available for 3TWh-4TWh of cell production worldwide in 2030.
We need to guess what portion of that Lithium Tesla could easily source, my guess 1-1.5TWh.
IMO Tesla will be taking extra steps to raise that 1.5 TWh up to 3 TWh by 2030.
But perhaps they can only get say 2 TWh?
I see 3 TWh as a 50/50 split between automotive an energy.
IMO, close to zero risk for 1.5 TWh of 4680 production for automotive in 2030,
1.5. TWh of energy storage batteries by 2030 might be 0.5 TWh Tesla 4680, and 1 TWh external suppliers.
I now think there are good reasons why Jeff Dahn is talking about Sodium Batteries and after 2030.
3 new things that I now think might be discussed.
We need to guess what portion of that Lithium Tesla could easily source, my guess 1-1.5TWh.
IMO Tesla will be taking extra steps to raise that 1.5 TWh up to 3 TWh by 2030.
But perhaps they can only get say 2 TWh?
I see 3 TWh as a 50/50 split between automotive an energy.
IMO, close to zero risk for 1.5 TWh of 4680 production for automotive in 2030,
1.5. TWh of energy storage batteries by 2030 might be 0.5 TWh Tesla 4680, and 1 TWh external suppliers.
I now think there are good reasons why Jeff Dahn is talking about Sodium Batteries and after 2030.
3 new things that I now think might be discussed.
- Sodium Batteries
- V2G
- Solar
I still kind of think the Highland Project is simply about a Model 3 revamp, but I'm hoping Investor Day clears this up and reveals Highland to be something much more than just about M3.
CLK350
Member
Highland Park is way more than a MP3 revamp.
Elon has dropped hints already, AND he's done that before. Correctly though the timing varies.
Check Connecting The Dots YouTube video for more info.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
Just throwing this out there:
Why is this a possibility?
Imagine if they announce not one, but THREE Gigafactory locations?
Why is this a possibility?
- We've had strong indications that the new Gigafactory location would be in Quebec, Canada.
- No wait, then we heard the new Gigafactory location would be in Indonesia.
- No wait, then we heard the new Gigafactory location would be in Mexico
- The first two offer gateways to key markets AND access to key battery minerals (Mexico I understand the least - besides lower labour costs, what's the advantage of Nuevo Leon or Hidalgo compared to continuing to grow Gigafactory Texas?)
- We know that Master Plan Part Trois is all about massive scale. Is one Gigafactory 'massive scale'? No. THREE is massive scale.
- IMO, we've had a dearth of new commitments in the last year or so (Semi was announced 2017, CyberTruck in 2019). To keep with Tesla's incomparable ambition, we need dramatic new goals for the troops, AND for TSLA.
- Battery Day was 2 1/2 years ago - c'mon! You've got to ramp faster!
- Um, what else you gonna do useful with +$20 B in cash???
- There's a recession coming, 'member? A recession is a great time for capital investing that will ripen at the exit of the recession.
- Last but not least, it's kickass cool. And Elon likes making statements / stretch goals, like when he said the Roadster would be a "hardcore smackdown to gas-powered cars"
- Investor Day is about incentivizing investors. It's more likely that de-mystifying 'Model 2', Robotaxi, or FSD rollout (i.e. production / go-live plans) would excite investors more. New factories are about growing COGS in the near term, not increasing revenue.
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He does a good job of connecting dots, but perhaps connects a few too many dots.
I will not be surprised if his speculation on Cybertruck and Highland turns out to be 100% right, equally will not be surprised if it doesn't.
It is handy to know, and thought provoking, but mostly speculation.
His videos on Megapack being positive margin, and Elon and Tesla being like Ayrton Senna, connected way too many dots IMO, and a say that as a big Senna and Megapack fan.
Just on this ..... what is everyone's take on discussing "capital allocation"?Just throwing this out there:
Imagine if they announce not one, but THREE Gigafactory locations?
Why is this a possibility?
Con arguments?
- We've had strong indications that the new Gigafactory location would be in Quebec, Canada.
- No wait, then we heard the new Gigafactory location would be in Indonesia.
- No wait, then we heard the new Gigafactory location would be in Mexico
- The first two offer gateways to key markets AND access to key battery minerals (Mexico I understand the least - besides lower labour costs, what's the advantage of Nuevo Leon or especially Hidalgo compared to continuing to grow Gigafactory Texas?)
- We know that Master Plan Part Trois is all about massive scale. Is one Gigafactory 'massive scale'? No. THREE is massive scale.
- IMO, we've had a dearth of new commitments in the last year or so (Semi was announced 2017, CyberTruck in 2019). To keep with Tesla's incomparable ambition, we need dramatic new goals for the troops, AND for TSLA.
- Battery Day was 2 1/2 years ago - c'mon! You've got to ramp faster!
- Last but not least, it's kickass cool. And Elon likes making statements / stretch goals, like when he said the Roadster would be a "hardcore smackdown to gas-powered cars"
- Investor Day is about rewarding investors. It's more likely de-mystifying 'Model 2', Robotaxi, or FSD rollout would excite investors more. New factories are about growing COGS in the near term, not increasing revenue.
My take is ramping up capex expenditure, eating into some of the $22 Billion cash reserve,
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It makes sense from a supply perspective to build a battery materials plant in Quebec, less so to build a full vehicle assembly plant. Further, the Quebec plant may be focused on quickly ramping TE products like Megapack, rather than the more mature vehicle production pipeline.
It will be hard for Quebec to compete with Mexico for assemblyline labor costs. Automation in the Megafactory will be key going forward, and N. America needs at least 2 more such plants. Given the proper incentives and regulatory commitments, Quebec would be an excellent choice.
I think there is a strong possibility Tesla is working on multiple new factory sites currently, but I doubt they'll announce them all at Investors Day. The factory reveals will trickle out over time as permits are granted and construction starts. I do think there is a great chance we'll see a couple of new factories break ground in 2023 though, as they need to start working on them very soon if 20 million cars by 2030 is going to happen.
But then who knows, maybe they'll just roll out all the new factory news in one shot a few weeks from now too. It's Tesla, so anything can happen!
No idea about timing of announcements of new gigafactories, but it's nice if Texas and Germany- new gigafactories- spool up production as newer ones build up to compensate for growing capex expenditure so free cash won't decrease so much.Just throwing this out there:
Imagine if they announce not one, but THREE Gigafactory locations?
Why is this a possibility?
Con arguments?
- We've had strong indications that the new Gigafactory location would be in Quebec, Canada.
- No wait, then we heard the new Gigafactory location would be in Indonesia.
- No wait, then we heard the new Gigafactory location would be in Mexico
- The first two offer gateways to key markets AND access to key battery minerals (Mexico I understand the least - besides lower labour costs, what's the advantage of Nuevo Leon or Hidalgo compared to continuing to grow Gigafactory Texas?)
- We know that Master Plan Part Trois is all about massive scale. Is one Gigafactory 'massive scale'? No. THREE is massive scale.
- IMO, we've had a dearth of new commitments in the last year or so (Semi was announced 2017, CyberTruck in 2019). To keep with Tesla's incomparable ambition, we need dramatic new goals for the troops, AND for TSLA.
- Battery Day was 2 1/2 years ago - c'mon! You've got to ramp faster!
- Um, what else you gonna do useful with +$20 B in cash???
- There's a recession coming, 'member? A recession is a great time for capital investing that will ripen at the exit of the recession.
- Last but not least, it's kickass cool. And Elon likes making statements / stretch goals, like when he said the Roadster would be a "hardcore smackdown to gas-powered cars"
- Investor Day is about incentivizing investors. It's more likely that de-mystifying 'Model 2', Robotaxi, or FSD rollout (i.e. production / go-live plans) would excite investors more. New factories are about growing COGS in the near term, not increasing revenue.
I’m sure they won’t announce any new factories unless they’ve already acquired the land they are building them on.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
Yeah, I agree they wouldn't preempt an agreement, but that aligns with rumours they've signed agreements but the partner can't discuss yet. Save it for Investor Day.
They could outline general targets
e.g. 2024 - 3 Million cars - 2 new factories.
2025 - 3.5 million cars - 1 new factory
Keeping in mind a new factory could be at an existing site like Austin.
Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
Excellent video by CW.
He takes numerous quotes from Elon/Tesla to show that total electrification will require 150 TWh of batteries and that we will need at least 20 TWh per year for ten to fifteen years to get there.
So yeah, insane scale it is
He takes numerous quotes from Elon/Tesla to show that total electrification will require 150 TWh of batteries and that we will need at least 20 TWh per year for ten to fifteen years to get there.
So yeah, insane scale it is
CYBRTRK420
Member
Here is some of my personal, unprofessional speculation regarding Project Highland, Gen 3 and the fully autonomous, dedicated Robotaxi.
Whenever I thought about the design of the Robotaxi, I came to the conclusion that it just makes sense to build the vehicle symmetrical. Same design for front and rear end of the vehicle. Power both axles and include all wheel steering.
There would be no need for the car to reverse, make u turns or similar manuvers since it could simply switch the direction, turn the front lights into rear lights and the other way around. Essentially making a 180° turn on the spot without moving an inch. The old rear end is now the front end. Similar to some high-speed trains.
So what if... The dedicated Robotaxi will use just one casting but *not* in a unibody way. The frame will be made ot of two castings and one structural battery pack, but! the castings are identical. It is the same piece from the same press, just turned around. This would also mean that front and rear bumper are identical, windshield is the same part as rear view window. So many parts saved by simply mirroring the vehicle in the center.
They could build just one light unit including regular front lights but also red LED's to switch to rear lights when needed.
This approach could cut the total amount of parts needed massively.
Just one bumper, one glass piece, one light unit, one side window, etc. etc.
What do you guys think?
Whenever I thought about the design of the Robotaxi, I came to the conclusion that it just makes sense to build the vehicle symmetrical. Same design for front and rear end of the vehicle. Power both axles and include all wheel steering.
There would be no need for the car to reverse, make u turns or similar manuvers since it could simply switch the direction, turn the front lights into rear lights and the other way around. Essentially making a 180° turn on the spot without moving an inch. The old rear end is now the front end. Similar to some high-speed trains.
So what if... The dedicated Robotaxi will use just one casting but *not* in a unibody way. The frame will be made ot of two castings and one structural battery pack, but! the castings are identical. It is the same piece from the same press, just turned around. This would also mean that front and rear bumper are identical, windshield is the same part as rear view window. So many parts saved by simply mirroring the vehicle in the center.
They could build just one light unit including regular front lights but also red LED's to switch to rear lights when needed.
This approach could cut the total amount of parts needed massively.
Just one bumper, one glass piece, one light unit, one side window, etc. etc.
What do you guys think?
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