TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by FluxCap, Apr 7, 2014.

  1. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2013
    Messages:
    3,317
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    In 2016 CFRA acquired S&P Global's Equity & Fund Research business. That included my friend Sam Stovall who is their chief investment strategist. Sam and his father Bob were regular guests of mine on my TV show.

    Today CFRA discussed its second half outlook in a webinar that included Sam. It can be viewed below.

     
  2. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2018
    Messages:
    1,014
    Location:
    us
    can you have them talk some sense to Efraim Levy :)
     
    • Funny x 2
  3. Lbkmxp100d

    Lbkmxp100d Member

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2016
    Messages:
    472
    Location:
    Lubbock, TX
    same company that downgraded Tesla hrs. after announcing 5k/wk. production on M3? Maybe your buddy Sam can talk some sense into them, or at least, ask about there timing of their downgrade.
     
  4. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2013
    Messages:
    3,317
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    In the past I've communicated with both Sam and Efraim regarding Tesla. Sam really can't interfere with Efraim; Sam is not Efraim's boss. And Efraim is stuck with his financial algorithms.

    In college finance classes I learned the same valuation techniques employed by virtually all analysts. Those analysts who are not independent must justify their evaluations to their bosses. That means they must show their calculations based on standard algorithms. Those only work well (to some degree & often not at all) with established companies in stable industries. Analysts hamstrung by such algorithms really should not be assigned to evaluate disruptive young innovative companies that are plowing into rapid growth what would otherwise be profits. Such companies are better evaluated by investors with sound intuition and research beyond financial algorithms learned in school.
     
    • Like x 3
    • Informative x 2
    • Helpful x 1
  5. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2018
    Messages:
    1,014
    Location:
    us
    thank you for that insight. i don’t actually believe everything is malicious. and i know CFAs that say same. thanks!
     
    • Like x 3
  6. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2011
    Messages:
    10,980
    Location:
    Ithaca, NY, USA
    There are formulas for evaluating growth companies. They don't let the analysts use them? They're based on CAGR, analysis of growth in fixed costs, etc. I was reading about them in the business library when I was a kid! Kind of sad if they aren't allowed to use the growth formulas when assigned a growth stock. :-(
     
    • Funny x 1
  7. defc0n

    defc0n Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2016
    Messages:
    658
    Location:
    Indiana
    S&P appears to have broken through 2800 today, which I interpret as very bullish short term
     
  8. Intl Professor

    Intl Professor Active Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2013
    Messages:
    2,211
    Location:
    California
    #2208 Intl Professor, Jul 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2018
    The upcoming election has great import for the markets, both long term—pace of climate change—and short—fate of trade war. That has implications for Tesla SP. There are many other implications related to China. (I think TSLA is a good hedge in any case, but....)

    Elsewhere I have warned about shenanigans by some state secretaries of elections who might skew things as some California county officials did in the 2016 primaries. According to the Los Angeles Times they suppressed the Sanders vote.

    Now there is a long essay detailing concerns about Russian hacking from Five Thirty-Eight. I've only skimmed it, but the layout of a long hypothetical has boxes summarizing some really scary excrement, including in some cases where some states have done nothing proactive.

    The Moscow Midterms

    Also, and related, it looks like Mueller is being very helpful to the counter narrative of the White House by timing notice of charges against Russian hackers just before Trump's visit with Putin and after the shellacking of Strzok.

    12 Russian Agents Indicted in Mueller Investigation

    I have cross posting this to the Market Politics thread but there may be general interest here.

    Edit: Any response, of course, should be to the Market Politics post.
     
    • Helpful x 1
  9. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    1,852
    Location:
    Germany
    Markets are significantly up today, couldn´t find anything why. Anyone got an idea or a good general market web page for further reading? Thanks.
     
  10. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2013
    Messages:
    6,842
    Location:
    Delaware
    FANG...Particularly GOOG, has caused some positive sentiment.
     
    • Like x 2
  11. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2015
    Messages:
    2,822
    Location:
    Appleton, WI
    Yep, GOOGL beat earnings expectations.
     
    • Like x 1
  12. pz1975

    pz1975 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2013
    Messages:
    801
    Location:
    South Surrey, BC, Canada
    It's too bad this thread died. I'd love some opinions on the current macro climate from @kenliles and/or @FluxCap.
     
    • Like x 1
  13. dmunjal

    dmunjal Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2012
    Messages:
    671
    I'll give my opinion from my previous post on this thread.

    The entire market is dependent on interest rates. When the Fed lowers rates, it helps equity prices go up. If they keep rates too low for too long, you risk creating bubbles. When the Fed raises rates, the bubble deflates or sometimes pops. This could be the third one this century.



    You can't fight the Fed. Though Trump is trying. He will lose.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  14. sundaymorning

    sundaymorning Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2013
    Messages:
    2,668
    Location:
    Orange County
    Interest rate is about 5.9% right now with a very healthy economy, the height of the tech bubble had rates sitting at 9.6%. We have a long way to go to get “bubbly.”
     
    • Like x 1
  15. dmunjal

    dmunjal Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2012
    Messages:
    671
    You can't compare directly since the size of the bubble and the amount of debt is also a factor.

    Look at this chart. Every recession was caused by rising rates. But the level is lower each time.
     

    Attached Files:

  16. sundaymorning

    sundaymorning Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2013
    Messages:
    2,668
    Location:
    Orange County
  17. sundaymorning

    sundaymorning Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2013
    Messages:
    2,668
    Location:
    Orange County
  18. dmunjal

    dmunjal Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2012
    Messages:
    671
    There are two kinds of interest rates. Long term ones like the article mentioned above are mostly market driven (in the absence of QE) and went down yesterday as investors sold stocks and bought bonds. Long term rates affect the housing market especially.

    Short term rates are dictated by the Fed and that's what the stock market is mostly worried about. Higher short terms rates means its harder to speculate in the stock market for hedge funds. In the last Fed meeting, Powell said the Fed planned to raise rates a few more times before they're done. The worry is that inflation is heating up and the Fed is serious about this plan. The next meeting is in December and it will dictate what happens in 2019.
     
    • Informative x 1
  19. UnknownSoldier

    UnknownSoldier Unknown Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2017
    Messages:
    706
    Location:
    WA
    So is this a buying opportunity?

    Goldman just said we're at the bottom though so I'm thinking we're at the beginning of the next Great Depression and global thermonuclear war over resources instead. In that case I might as well buy because it won't matter anyways when we're all incinerated!
     
    • Funny x 2
  20. shrspeedblade

    shrspeedblade Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2015
    Messages:
    869
    Location:
    CA, United States
    Something to remember is that throughout history when the market is doing well people irrationally think it will never end, and when it is doing poorly people irrationally think it will never end.
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Like x 1

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC