Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

[sundaymorning]

Compared to a year ago the economy continues to be hot.

Black Friday shopping pulled in a record $6.22 billion in online sales: Adobe

• Online sales Black Friday jumped 23.6 percent from a year ago, according to a new report from Adobe Analytics.
• The Friday after Thanksgiving this year was also the first day in history to see more than $2 billion in sales stemming from smartphones.
• Cyber Monday sales online are expected to set a new record of $7.8 billion, up nearly 18 percent from last year.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Does this data factor into the Fed’s decision making with regard to rates? Or likely no impact?

 

[dmunjal]

Does this data factor into the Fed’s decision making with regard to rates? Or likely no impact?

Probably not. I think oil in the 40s has a bigger impact to their thinking.

Ironically,, low oil may end up helping Tesla this time.

 

[Starno]

On a global/macro view of the market I think we are very close to the top, with maybe a little bit of upside if China-US relations and communication tend to go well over the next few months. But even then, we won't see that much of growth.

Prepare yourself for a period of volatility, stagnation (again global/macro).

 

[bonaire]

On a global/macro view of the market I think we are very close to the top, with maybe a little bit of upside if China-US relations and communication tend to go well over the next few months. But even then, we won't see that much of growth.

Prepare yourself for a period of volatility, stagnation (again global/macro).

World population at 7.5 Billion. Going to 9-10 Billion. I doubt we see a downturn in markets overall until population starts to look at the resource and energy mess this will bring and stops the population growth rate. The 1.5 Billion kids born since about 2000 will need work soon. Yes, the world population added 1.5 Billion people under the age of 18 in the last 18 years. This means economic growth still is under way. To those who enjoy trying to plan for sustainability - this is NOT sustainable.

Year (July 1) Population Yearly % Change
2018 7,632,819,325 1.09 %
2017 7,550,262,101 1.12 %
2016 7,466,964,280 1.14 %
2015 7,383,008,820 1.19 %

 

[defc0n]

World population at 7.5 Billion. Going to 9-10 Billion. I doubt we see a downturn in markets overall until population starts to look at the resource and energy mess this will bring and stops the population growth rate. The 1.5 Billion kids born since about 2000 will need work soon. Yes, the world population added 1.5 Billion people under the age of 18 in the last 18 years. This means economic growth still is under way. To those who enjoy trying to plan for sustainability - this is NOT sustainable.

Year (July 1) Population Yearly % Change
2018 7,632,819,325 1.09 %
2017 7,550,262,101 1.12 %
2016 7,466,964,280 1.14 %
2015 7,383,008,820 1.19 %

Not very sustainable in poor countries sure. Modernized countries do not generally have a problem with overpopulation, and may have the opposite problem (Japan).

 

[defc0n]

If I see the s&p 500 drop below 2581 I’m getting out of equities entirely.

 

[EVNow]

Not very sustainable in poor countries sure. Modernized countries do not generally have a problem with overpopulation, and may have the opposite problem (Japan).

Yes, the highest growth now is in countries that can afford it the least - sub-Saharan Africa.

 

[bonaire]

Not very sustainable in poor countries sure. Modernized countries do not generally have a problem with overpopulation, and may have the opposite problem (Japan).

There is overpopulation and then there is overconsumption. China and India both want a deeper, stronger middle-class full of growing consumption. That's what's not Sustainable. And do you want 1 Billion people in a country living in mega-highrises in dense cities? How long does that last - perhaps long if the country is stable and not in any kind of turmoil. Some of the biggest cities in the next few decades will come up out of growing wealth an population in Africa, actually.

 

[dmvevguy]

If I see the s&p 500 drop below 2581 I’m getting out of equities entirely.

Is this including your TSLA stock?

 

[defc0n]

Is this including your TSLA stock?

That’s yet TBD, but probably. I’m always in and out of TSLA fairly frequently, but I might use that money to short the market for awhile if things look grim.

 

[Cherry Wine]

If I see the s&p 500 drop below 2581 I’m getting out of equities entirely.

Touched 2583 this morning.

 

[defc0n]

Touched 2583 this morning.

It looks like we may live another day Some large volume buying in the market when we got that low I believe. Really need some good trade war news now. What else would motivate people to buy? The Fed has chickened out on rate increases as much as they probably will.

 

[Cherry Wine]

It looks like we may live another day Some large volume buying in the market when we got that low I believe. Really need some good trade war news now. What else would motivate people to buy? The Fed has chickened out on rate increases as much as they probably will.

Think a resolution of the Huawei situation is substantive enough for a small rally?

 

[defc0n]

Think a resolution of the Huawei situation is substantive enough for a small rally?

A very small temporary one maybe. Market is pissed Trump has no deal and are tired of tariffs.

 

[defc0n]

Futures starting to move up before Monday fortunately. My guess is some are betting that we hit a bottom yet again and that the Wednesday Fed meeting will be bullish. If this week does end up negative, I’ll still likely be selling all of my equities.

 

[neroden]

I believe the bear market will continue until Republicans are removed from power.

 

[Cherry Wine]

S&P 500 reaches less-charted territory, second test of major support (2,581) underway

U.S. stocks are mixed early Monday, though well off session lows, vacillating ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, due out Wednesday.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 is traversing less-charted territory near multi-month lows — under the 2,600 mark — placing a second retest of major support (2,581) in play.

 

[dmunjal]

I believe the bear market will continue until Republicans are removed from power.

That's a very partisan and very incorrect statement.

The Dems won the House but the market continues to decline. China trade negotiations are making progress but the market continues to decline. GDP and unemployment are not getting worse yet the market continues to decline. Mueller has all but ensured that Trump will not win in 2020 or be out sooner but the market continues to decline.

The bear market we are seeing has to do with the credit bubble that has been inflated over the last 10 years deflating. The cause was (and always is) rising interest rates. Going from 0% to 2.75% is huge for big traders who use leverage.

But the media will highlight all the other factors to make sure the Fed is kept out of the spotlight and gets no blame.

 

[JRP3]

The Dems won the House but the market continues to decline.

You're joking, right?