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He's not really trying to fix it and he hasn't accomplished anything.

We now have tariffs against Canada (?!?!) and China has restored its tarriffs against the US to... exactly what they were when Trump started his tariff war.

I'm actually in favor of well-thought-out tariffs, but NOTHING Trump has done has been well thought out.

Tariffs aren't the only issue on the table. Reducing them to reasonable and fair levels is a goal. But the theft of intellectual property is a big one.

I was at Cisco when Huawei stole code for IOS. This is common practice and has been going on for years.

Huawei Admits Copying Code From Cisco in Router Software

I don't expect the negotiations to change the behavior of private companies but there should be mutual agreement on punishment for IP crimes. I think Hollywood is asking for something similar.
 
This indicates a lack of credit *demand*, which has little to do with interest rates and everything to do with lack of business expansion opportunities.

The high-yield market does not operate the same way as the "investment grade" market. I remember when "high-yield" bonds yielded 15%, 20%, more, and when companies thought there was a potential for business expansion, they issued them.

Companies do actually do rate arbitrage on low-yield bonds, issuing 2% bonds in order to buy back stock. High-yield bonds simply don't work that way.

A drying up of the high-yield bond market *is* indicative of "market sentiment" taking a serious downturn, and is interesting.

It is NOT, however, due to Fed interest rates, because, as I say, there have been plenty of exuberant periods when companies happily issued 24% high-yield bonds.

It is what they call a "risk off" market. A lot of companies had a sudden cut in their profit margins and cash flows because of the tariffs. They and other companies are now hoarding cash in order to deal with future random acts of God the President.

You don't think "risk-off" has to do with sentiment changing based on what the Fed said in its last meeting?

What would happen if Powell said he would LOWER interest rates and start QE again tomorrow? Risk-ON!!
 
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I'm not going to forgive US past sins. But going forward, I would like a fair playing field.
Sure, why not. Once a country (or a group of people) gains a lot of unfair advantages, it would definitely want a "level playing field".

China has essentially financed US's profligate ways, exported deflation, made everyone on wall st rich. Its the reason we can have nice things cheap.

Look at the Huawei controversy. if China barred companies from exporting anything with Chinese parts / tech to, say Taiwan, would American companies follow that rule or try to bend it by some proxy companies. What would we say if Korea detained the daughter of the CEO of a company that does that ? What about detaining the daughter of the CEO of Goldman Sachs or McKinsey or some such terrible company ? Oh BTW, US unilaterally for domestic political reasons abrogated the agreement with Iran.

US does NOT want a level playing field. Infact, entire US foreign policy is built around " American Exceptionalism" - and both Republicans & Democrats believe in that. Its not just the past - it is the present and the future. When the entire basis of our dealings with the world is the idea that we are "exceptional" how can we ask for level playing fields ?
Yes, my handle is real and I'm Indian. Punjabi to be specific.
Surprised you support Trump, who is openly hostile to non-white people. But then, may be not. A lot of BJP supporters, support Trump.
 
Sure, why not. Once a country (or a group of people) gains a lot of unfair advantages, it would definitely want a "level playing field".

China has essentially financed US's profligate ways, exported deflation, made everyone on wall st rich. Its the reason we can have nice things cheap.

Look at the Huawei controversy. if China barred companies from exporting anything with Chinese parts / tech to, say Taiwan, would American companies follow that rule or try to bend it by some proxy companies. What would we say if Korea detained the daughter of the CEO of a company that does that ? What about detaining the daughter of the CEO of Goldman Sachs or McKinsey or some such terrible company ? Oh BTW, US unilaterally for domestic political reasons abrogated the agreement with Iran.

US does NOT want a level playing field. Infact, entire US foreign policy is built around " American Exceptionalism" - and both Republicans & Democrats believe in that. Its not just the past - it is the present and the future. When the entire basis of our dealings with the world is the idea that we are "exceptional" how can we ask for level playing fields ?

Surprised you support Trump, who is openly hostile to non-white people. But then, may be not. A lot of BJP supporters, support Trump.

I agree that the US is just as bad as anyone else. And China has helped a certain segment of the US. Mostly Wall Street and corporations who can outsource manufacturing. Others have not done so well. My version of a win would be for the US to start exporting again and lower the trade deficit. Bringing back some manufacturing and exporting oil and LNG would help.

I don't support Trump and I didn't vote for him. But I do think he's addressing issues that have been ignored for far too long by our establishment politicians who are in bed with lobbyists. Even if he fails, he will have raised the visibility so future politicians can figure out the right way to solve the problem.

You find it surprising that an Indian-American can support Trump's policies yet I find it interesting that someone who supports Tesla and Musk doesn't understand that Trump is doing something similar. Shaking up the establishment. There's a reason he's getting so much blowback from them.
 
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Surprised you support Trump, who is openly hostile to non-white people. But then, may be not. A lot of BJP supporters, support Trump.

I don't support Trump but dmunjal and I seem to share similar political/economic views and you might be able to guess whether or not I am non-white by my name. I'm curious where you live that you assume non-whites would automatically be so anti-Trump. I live in the Deep South of the U.S. and the majority of my asian friends are either mildly conservative or very pro-Trump. Same with many of my Hispanic friends. Believe it or not, the shared values of conservatives can transcend race/ethnicity. If you really want to be shocked, look at how well Trump polls with non-whites and women in generation Z.

As for IP theft, it's ludicrous to not expect an even playing field. The U.S. has been screaming about IP theft since long before Trump came into office. Obama brought it up and Trump has obviously escalated the issue with the trade war. This is not obviously a bad thing since past efforts have done practically nothing. However, I've recently changed my mind on how the US should deal with this issue: IP theft isn't going to stop, so the US's best course of action is to invest in research and innovation. With the amount of time and energy it takes to copy, China can only ever hope to be second best. This is essentially Tesla's strategy - open source patents, but innovate at a blistering pace. Good luck to whomever copies Tesla, because the technology they copy will be old compared to what Tesla is releasing.

Yukon Huang has been influencing my thoughts on the US-China relationship. I highly recommend this video. China will clearly play an important role in Tesla's future.

 
You find it surprising that an Indian-American can support Trump's policies yet I find it interesting that someone who supports Tesla and Musk doesn't understand that Trump is doing something similar. Shaking up the establishment.

Tesla is "shaking up the establishment" by clearly showing better ways to do things. Trump is "shaking up the establishment" like a bull in a china shop on the one hand while trying to support outdated industries like coal on the other. There is no comparison between Tesla's rational plan for the future and what Trump has been doing.
 
Tesla is "shaking up the establishment" by clearly showing better ways to do things. Trump is "shaking up the establishment" like a bull in a china shop on the one hand while trying to support outdated industries like coal on the other. There is no comparison between Tesla's rational plan for the future and what Trump has been doing.

I'm not comparing their methods or even their motivations. What I'm saying is that they are making some big enemies and in a world of stagnant policies enabled by entrenched interests.

Don't you think that there are big monied interests that prefer the status quo on immigration, energy, trade, war, monetary policy etc? On both sides of the aisle?
 
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exporting oil and LNG would help.

Who could that help? Are there sustainable human settlements on Mars already? Or are we still in 1972?

If I'm not mistaken, Americans who don't have much money will suffer the most from climate change, and those with enough money will live better with a trade deficit than watching the world burn.


xobkagxotot01.jpg

s/shareholders/taxpayers
 
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Who could that help? Are there sustainable human settlements on Mars already? Or are we still in 1972?

If I'm not mistaken, Americans who don't have much money will suffer the most from climate change, and those with enough money will live better with a trade deficit than watching the world burn.


xobkagxotot01.jpg

s/shareholders/taxpayers

Many think manufacturing is not coming back and exporting our natural resources can help pay for innovation to reduce CO2.

This is exactly what Norway does to finance their EV subsidies.
 
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Many think manufacturing is not coming back and exporting our natural resources can help pay for innovation to reduce CO2.

This is exactly what Norway does to finance their EV subsidies.
I'm well aware of that. But do you expect the buyers of your oil to put it back in the ground? Do you believe you can do an energy transition if it depends on oil revenues?

This tactic may seem sensible at the micro level, but IMO it is really dumb at the macro level (the one on which our survival really depends).
 
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Who could that help? Are there sustainable human settlements on Mars already? Or are we still in 1972?

If I'm not mistaken, Americans who don't have much money will suffer the most from climate change, and those with enough money will live better with a trade deficit than watching the world burn.


xobkagxotot01.jpg

s/shareholders/taxpayers

As we are in the investment section, I really really want Elon to keep his word of trying to eliminate Cobalt from the batteries. A lot of us here try to invest ethically, and Tesla needs WAY more transparency with Panasonic about how their Cobalt is acquired. As they grow, they should be putting pressure on the mines(and giving back via educational programs, programs to help shift jobs from mining (in case Cobalt is indeed eliminated) etc) to put a end to child labour.

Cobalt mining shows clean energy revolution comes at a price
 
As we are in the investment section, I really really want Elon to keep his word of trying to eliminate Cobalt from the batteries. A lot of us here try to invest ethically, and Tesla needs WAY more transparency with Panasonic about how their Cobalt is acquired. As they grow, they should be putting pressure on the mines(and giving back via educational programs, programs to help shift jobs from mining (in case Cobalt is indeed eliminated) etc) to put a end to child labour.

Cobalt mining shows clean energy revolution comes at a price
Tesla has a pretty aggressive program checking their material sources and those of their suppliers. They don't use DRC cobalt.
 
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This news report confirms that the strong support Tesla is receiving from Shanghai is officially authorised by the new NDRC policy:
Translating to expectations we can be assured that the Tesla CKD plant will enter operation around mid-year 2019.
China unveils regulations to delegate new energy vehicle approval rights - Global Times
China announced on Tuesday that vehicle investment projects will be delegated to local governments and the approval system will be changed to a filing system in 2019, a move that an expert said shows the country's ongoing efforts to streamline administration and support the new energy vehicle industry.

The National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) has rolled out a new regulation on auto industry investment, under which vehicle investment projects will be delegated to local governments and the approval system will be changed to a filing system. The new regulation takes effect on January 10, 2019.

The NDRC said that the cancellation of the approval system is meant to actively adapt to industry evolution and create a better policy environment for local governments and firms.

The vehicle industry is currently facing the problems of overlapping management of different departments and an inefficient approval process, which put a heavy burden on firms and evoke strong dissatisfaction, said the NDRC.

The new regulation calls for acceleration of research and industrialization of the industry, including production of key parts and advanced production equipment, and the development of battery recycling technology for new energy vehicles.

It also puts stricter control on the increase of internal combustion vehicles capacity, while encouraging orderly development of new energy vehicles.

Jia Xinguang, an expert at the China Automobile Dealers Association, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the new regulation shows China is streamlining government functions and administration and delegating powers while improving regulation nationwide.

The country's new governing model for the auto industry aligns with the general development concepts on environmental protection, Jia added.
 
Sure, and Trump is in many ways catering to those, not disrupting them, i.e. coal, NG, oil, polluters, etc.

Today is a good example of what I'm describing this time with regards to military policy.

Trump says he's pulling out of Syria.

Rand Paul thinks it's a good idea.

Lindsey Graham thinks it's a bad idea.

I have no idea if pulling out of Syria is a good thing or not but I do know that Lindsey Graham (like McCain) is a warmongering neocon and if he's against it, I know it's a good decision.

You can tell a lot about someone by the enemies he makes.
 
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You can tell a lot about someone by the enemies he makes.
Indeed. Trump has made enemies with people who understand science and are actually concerned with the health of our environment. I don't know if pulling out of Syria is good or not, (though I'm inclined to think it is), but a single potentially good decision does not negate Trump's attempts to cater to established old school industries and his blatant disregard for the truth.
 
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The Fed has a lot of power. In defiance of the President, they will raise rates twice in 2019 despite GDP forecasts of 2.9% being no different than in 2015. Rates were at zero and QE was $85B a month. We are now at 2.75% and QT of $50B a month. Wow.

800 point swing in the Dow.