I appreciate you posting this article as an alternate view, Professor........but wow was it a struggle to force myself to read it to the finish line. As you know, I am not a defender of Trump, but I do try to avoid letting history be rewritten and point out efforts to do so when I think I see them. And I find David Frum making a clear attempt to do so. Is it not a little too convenient that a previous speech writer for Shrub (I prefer Molly Ivans to Frum) is penning an article blaming Trump for the crumbling of the EU in his very first months of office? The author did rightfully mention the similar policies of his boss and other administrations towards Europe, and we have discussed the similar military policies of GW and Obama as outlined by General Wesley Clark. To avoid such re-writes of history however, we must maintain an awareness when reading articles such as this that
prior to the US presidential elections:
- Brexit happened (5 months prior to Trump's election)
- Greece was being financially supported with debt it could never pay to avoid a domino effect of the Central Bank
- Portugal and Spain were on the fence and about to follow Greece
- Significant Nationalist Party momentum had already surged in France and Italy, with some predicting they would follow Brexit
- Similarities of nationaist movements in the EU and the US were being pointed out by people that were predicting a Trump victory as a result
- And this trail of very visible clues (except in the news reported in the US) leading to a growing belief that even Ms Merkel may not get re-elected for similar reasons
Again, all happening prior to Trump implementing any of the new management practices from the Oval Office that Frum writes about. I do believe that if we look closer at the similarities of the EU and the US that we can better understand how Trump happened here as a similar failure of our systems/policies as Brexit happened in the EU. But to do so we must admit that the larger picture was crumbling well in advance of Trump. That isn't likely something a neocon former speech writer of GW wants to talk about. The very fact that these issues are not being discussed openly here in the US troubles me. I certainly don't claim to have a finger on the pulse for the real reasons the EU has been slowly crumbling in recent months/years, and I have found it a difficult topic in the US to research because of articles like Frum's that put a spin on it. I have however followed it fairly closely because it does have relevance to our investments as you mentioned, and because I was fascinated to see that the people who were correct in their predictions of a Brexit victory were also correct in their predictions of Trump victory - based solely on the similar economic policy issues of the US and the EU (thus my questions to you regarding Germany's NATO role/history).
Beyond the policies of austerity common to the US and Germany that we have already discussed, these EU 'failures' have most notably been tied to the fact that the Central Bank is located in Germany, and only Germany is allowed to print money for the EU. The ability to create new debt to stimulate the economy has worked well for the US.............and it has worked well for us as investors of Tesla. Had the previous administration not provided stimulus funding (debt) to Musk and Co. we would likely not be here discussing our successful portfolios (for some a portfolio of 1 stock). And because the US prints the US Dollar, which is the standard for world currency, it is advantageous for other countries to want to buy our debt and invest in our stock market - which provides much of the stability of the US stock market. But what happens when France or Italy wants to stimulate their economies? Will they be the owners of the new Junker Bonds or the US Stimulus Plan debt? No, they will not. To create large infrastructure and technical improvements such as building Eisenhower Interstates, or funding Kennedy Space Missions, or even creating electric car companies under the Obama Administration, they would need to borrow money from the EU's Central Bank in Germany, and pay interest to Germany bankers. How is that working for Greece, Spain, and Portugal? Perhaps it is because of this twist that the countries that have avoided deeper troubles in the EU - such as Denmark - have policies that are a little more socialistic by necessity............i.e. because they don't own the money printing press they can't afford to have a playing field that isn't a little more flat.
I would like to see Mr. Frum explore these ideas with more depth before pointing the finger at the new president in his first months - a president I don't agree with, but a president that may have simply been elected as a result of the failures of previous administration's financial policies - which included Mr Frum's previous boss.