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Energy macro trends for those interested in what's going on to get the entirety of the planet with electricity, preferably clean energy.

From the article:

"The number of people without access to electricity fell to below 1.1 billion people for the first time in 2016, with nearly 1.2 billion people having gained access since 2000, 500 million of which were in India. Most progress has been made in developing Asia, where 870 million gained access since 2000, of which India account for 500 million gaining access – one of the largest electrification success stories in history. There is also for the first time a positive trend in sub-Saharan Africa, where electrification efforts have been outpacing population growth since 2014."

Solar+battery is the cheapest and easiest way to bring power to a large portion of those 1.1B people. Saw a special on a group that hucked like 7 days with mules carrying solar panels, LED bulbs and batteries to budist or something in the most remote part of the world. The village never had power and now it had light! Certainly is not like westerners with tons of appliances, but it's a start.
 
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Bringing 2 themes together, will BMW be a Chinese company by 2021? Big ramifications for German industrial policy.

I think there is a decent chance that something like this could happen although not sure about the date -- also the German government may step in at some point given how critical the auto industry is to the German economy. Definitely will be interesting to see how this unfolds ....
 
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Prediction for global economy :
2018 (this year) : Excellent year : good growth, clear sky, interest rates slowly rising but it's fine.
2019 : Good year : growth slowing down a bit, some doubt start to appear but overall markets are still rising though at a slower pace than 2018.
2020 : First six months : doubts amplify a bit, growth is still there but at a slower pace, interest rates are rising, markets are rising as well but more out of velocity.
Last six months : doubts still there, interest rates rising grow fear, but markets are pretty calm, the velocity of the market growth is still in effect, but ....
2021 : It becomes psychological, I'm personally waiting for a " market crash " happening this year.
 
The Economy and Politics have been on my periphery since the early sixties. They are like sticky buggers, I do not seem to be able to shake them:-(

As I was starting my senior year (67-68) Arthur (Art) Council lost his life in Vietnam. He and I had shared the high and long jump pit together as we trained in our respective sport.

Then when I started college at El Camino Community College, I took a class in Religious Studies. Background, I was born and raised Presbyterian ~ they tend to believe that if you are blessed you will be wealthy ~ please, not an exact quote. And, I was searching for my calling because I thought I was going to become a minister, or so I thought. That in and of itself is another story. Anyway, my instructor asked if anyone believed in money; the fool that I am, I raised my hand and said, "I did not." Yep, you are correct, I was the only one:-( He took that opportunity to lambast me pointing out that I was wearing a Pendleton shirt. Even though my mother bought it for me I did not have a leg to stand on and became the laughing stock of the class, I am sure. I dropped out of college early in the spring semester to enlist in the army earning $98 bucks a month. Can you believe it cost me a dollar, just to shave my head? I was on easy street for sure.

My wife has been drawn to the Pendleton outlet stores since living here in the northwest. That was amplified during our September road trip from hell when Xena was violated; someone smashed the back window and grabbed our luggage. That meant that on our return trip we had to replace all the new stuff my wife had purchased on the way to Fremont and of course I got a few things as well:)

Bottom line, the other day I looked at the size label on my shirt and it said, "Made in Vietnam."

The Economy is not complicated; it just isn't honorable. Sadly today, I cannot even define "honorable," just as we cannot define "Truth" anymore.

Two things I hope to see here in Tesla World (TMC). First, any major crashing sign of TSLA and secondly weakness in the overall economy. I have lived through the drought period of this stock when it hit its bottoms and became too giddy when it reached its highs. I choose to focus on the fundamentals in the face of debt.

As for the elephant in the room, I do not see our US economy successful or failure based on either political party. Having said that, I believe that in the early 2000 era thirteen laws were removed from the books. I used to have them referenced, but must have tossed them out too. So, I do not have hard reference and I am not sure if the number is correct or a memory of my track sweats number 13 back in the '60s. The removal of those laws, like legs for a building built on stilts brought down the house of cards in mid 2000.

We just got introduced to a new tax code. Time to dust off your old textbooks, you know the ones used to kill trees and are not on your Kindle. Is history about to repeat itself, yet again?
 
Thank you for that post above, while not being American I do agree with your sentiments.

Most critical, self thinking people, whether Clintonian or Trumpist or none of them realize something is quite amiss in a bigger scheme. Being an economist myself with a big interest for how things work always (reading both DragonWatch and Nerodens posts with big intererst), including history and politics something quite severe is probably bound to happen sooner or later. There is also a slight chance that things will self adjust and things will turn "normal" again to 1995ish era or similar but that chance I deem small.

Basically all of politics is quite messed up in many (but not all) countries, the continued lending and low rates yet rising risk, huge market increases yet no real growth, growing pension funds investing more in stocks etc leading to inflated values, higher leverage and so on with so many differnt factors, yet that no actual cure of this "****ed up" economy is in sight is very worrying. It can still possibly continue for quite a bit longer but something is bound to happen in general about this situation, be it 1 or 10 years either politics or economics.

I have learned as well that history repeats itself even though people say it will not happen this time (it will), which history of them all though I am unsure and the possible paths are plenty with some probably also having quite a positive outcome for many people.

As you mention, things were more simple before but now the factors and unknowns are just too plentiful, I hate the term fake news but these days it really is difficult to know what is the actual truth or not, both in politics and economics.

Ignoring all the texts and statements made, TLDR: I Agree with the post above.
 
My personal prognosis remains that the near-term economic effect will not be a replica of the Great Depression -- but rather will be much like the Long Depression of 1873 - 1896. During that period, also known as the Gilded Age in the US, there was an industrial revolution going on, and fortunes were made by picking the right industries and companies. But growth never trickled down to help the masses -- except in the form of improved technology, which was widely adopted, but didn't change people's upset about massive inequality (who cares if you have electric light if you don't have food)? Politics was spectacularly corrupt and to some extent ineffectual. The period ended, politically speaking with a rise in "extremist" left-wing and militant right-wing movements, both upset at the failure of establishment government. (Pro tip: in this situation someone who wants social stability and peace should support the left-wingers; their changes actually make some things better for the upset masses, and therefore calm things down. The right-wingers just put fuel on the fire.)

The exact causes of the Long Depression are debated. One theory includes the inability of the industrial revolution to continue increasing productivity and lower-class wealth at the same rate it had (the tech was still being developed and deployed, but the economic benefits started being muted). Almost all theories agree that a turn to "hard money" policy was the proximate cause (hard money ==> recession).
 
The above was my "initial" thought as well over the last 7 years in concern to policies etc and what is actually being done. But recently seeing the divide between people in general and possible rise in animosity between many worldwide actors is my reason for doubt. But still these things do also seem to be present in the Gilded Age which came and went depending on the times. At the moment I am inclined to believe that the current outcome will be very similar to that, especially including many of the new technologies right on the horizon.

Possibly a sudden unemployment rise due to the impact of one or a few of these combined with a not yet implemented basic income policy (if it will happen) or such could be one trigger that somehow tip the current "balance" which could cause real unrest and would actually cause a real kind of crash and not just a tiny dip in general. The dip is probably impossible to predict as it will mostly be emotion based, however the larger crash might be easier to perceive, my guess being Autonomous Driving being the first thing to cause quite severe unemployment and probably Machine Learning-AI improvements in the workplace the second a few years after. Only possible realistic thing to save us from severe crashes would in my mind be a basic income of some sort since many countries lack social security in tougher times. Still it does incline that rifts between people will be even more severe in either case. In addition, I wonder how long it will take "fix" the company country tax flight issue which is also a major concern in this whole plot.
 
Any opinions on how the government shutdown might affect TSLA on Monday? It was a big deal last time but I haven’t even seen it mentioned on TMC yet.

If people are not morons, it should be a nothing burger. The government doesn't really shut down. Every critical person still goes to work, people just do not get paid until the issue is resolved. The last shut down was a bit different in that the Obama industry wanted to make it hurt, so they actually shut down as much stuff as they could.

This is a lot different situation and should be resolved before markets open. A lot of posturing and no real leverage on either side really. The Dems got a fair deal and Rebubs were not going to give more and my guess is that they will approve something shorter then the original 4 weeks with a promise to address immigration before any further extensions so the clock will start again, but only 2-3 weeks max. This might actually be a huge positive for the markets, because an immigration solution could be seen as very positive, especially if both sides do not like the final product as it will mean their was compromise and the government can actually function.
 
If people are not morons, it should be a nothing burger. The government doesn't really shut down. Every critical person still goes to work, people just do not get paid until the issue is resolved. The last shut down was a bit different in that the Obama industry wanted to make it hurt, so they actually shut down as much stuff as they could.

This is a lot different situation and should be resolved before markets open. A lot of posturing and no real leverage on either side really. The Dems got a fair deal and Rebubs were not going to give more and my guess is that they will approve something shorter then the original 4 weeks with a promise to address immigration before any further extensions so the clock will start again, but only 2-3 weeks max. This might actually be a huge positive for the markets, because an immigration solution could be seen as very positive, especially if both sides do not like the final product as it will mean their was compromise and the government can actually function.

I liked your read on our current situation.

Society has lived through this before and essentially survived as you indicated above. Most folks that actually are affected by the shutdown; the wise ones, have pocketed/set money aside especially knowing this has been building. In case you are wondering, the military has already been paid through the end of the month:) And, the commissary is still operating, going tomorrow to pick up a special order of bird suit. Stocks are, including Tesla, have bounced around a bit last week, but again they will continue forward because of the overall world market is not affected. If the DOW is open, people will trade. My wife just rolled over some cash, so once I get a feel for the market on Monday, or Tuesday I'll be looking for the best opportunity.

If the government was to make a decision to cut the military down to a third of what it is today and stop expanding ~ then yes, you would have to worry about our economy having some trouble. Germany went through similar issues when we began reducing our military presence back in the early nineties.
 
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Bearing in mind I am obsessed by politics—also epistemology—especially pricing of stocks. Nonetheless, some of you may be interested in the following op. ed: “Is President Trump a Stealth Postmodernist or Just a Liar?,” Thomas B. Edsall, NYT January 25, 2018.

The essay also applies to the conundrum many of us here find in the “irrationality” of the market place compared to “the truth” we environmentalists share. Apparently Keynes’ comment the market is but a high school popularity contest rings true for the nihilist interpretation of postmodernism. I remember engaging, here, with someone when I asked how we could determine the “fair value” of TSLA. The response, “the market.”

The headline is accurate reflection of content. Since I know little of Foucault, I found particularly interesting the historical interpretations of postmodernism and applications to Trump today. Edsall concludes with discussion of the dangers of Trumpism to a society already rife with tribalism. Nothing new there, but a good summary.

Today’s market seems to be another conflict between the short “tribe” and the up “tribe.” The truth may lie somewhere in the middle. I hope it is not a lie. (I’ve always found that allegation about truth to be punny.) Lest one think I am a nihilist about the meaning of words, not. The ambiguity of language is often its charm.

Reminds me of a saying by one of my students who later became his country’s UN Ambassador. “Statistics is like a bikini, what is revealed is interesting, what is concealed, is crucial.”

Opinion | Is President Trump a Stealth Postmodernist or Just a Liar?
 
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My personal prognosis remains that the near-term economic effect will not be a replica of the Great Depression -- but rather will be much like the Long Depression of 1873 - 1896. During that period, also known as the Gilded Age in the US, there was an industrial revolution going on, and fortunes were made by picking the right industries and companies. But growth never trickled down to help the masses -- except in the form of improved technology, which was widely adopted, but didn't change people's upset about massive inequality (who cares if you have electric light if you don't have food)? Politics was spectacularly corrupt and to some extent ineffectual. The period ended, politically speaking with a rise in "extremist" left-wing and militant right-wing movements, both upset at the failure of establishment government. (Pro tip: in this situation someone who wants social stability and peace should support the left-wingers; their changes actually make some things better for the upset masses, and therefore calm things down. The right-wingers just put fuel on the fire.)

The exact causes of the Long Depression are debated. One theory includes the inability of the industrial revolution to continue increasing productivity and lower-class wealth at the same rate it had (the tech was still being developed and deployed, but the economic benefits started being muted). Almost all theories agree that a turn to "hard money" policy was the proximate cause (hard money ==> recession).

My thoughts are this:

The rise of the stock market generally corresponds to strong corporate earnings and outlook, and corporate earnings and outlook are driven by a combination of consumer (the majority of spending in the US) and government spending.

So the question I have been asking myself in the past few days is whether the consumer base as a whole is getting enough money to spend back in goods and services. Additionally, I am wondering whether such spending is driven by debt levels which may become unsustainable.
 
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