Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

[neroden]

Aaaand... OPEC managed to agree to limit oil production. Apparently the oil prices were too low for their tastes.

Oil soars 6 percent as OPEC reaches deal to limit output in November

As a result, oil prices went up immediately (in anticipation; traders stockpiling because they expect prices to go up, cause prices to go up). Gasoline prices will follow quickly.

This is a tailwind for Tesla.

 

[FluxCap]

Thanks for sharing, neroden.

Also, odds of HRC winning the US election in November have shot back up dramatically, and I expect odds to increase even further as the results of post-debate polls continue to come in over the next week or so. This is generally perceived as good for portfolios weighted towards tech and renewable energy (like mine).

Two sites I track constantly are these two:

Betting Markets:
Which party will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election?

Nate Silver's statistical probability analysis based on polling data and electoral map:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Using these metrics to predict outcome of US elections has made me money consistently in the past. Remember that the popular vote you read about in news articles is almost entirely irrelevant as a predictor of who will win. Electoral votes and battleground states are all that (sadly) matter.

 

[pjoseph]

3Q ends today. Should be a firecracker.

Earnings call is on Nov 1st. Why is it that it takes the company more time to tabulate & release earnings than build a custom car?

 

[Intl Professor]

CEO of the Man Group, whatever that is, on Bloomberg this morning opined the market will be volatile until the election is over. In post above, Nate Silver is really the top source for a fix on polling, etc. He aggregates polls and then weights them in terms of reliability. Also, he has a number of caveats on polling errors if you've followed him over the years.

I will make a prediction based on one data point about foreign press treatment of the U.S. president if Trump wins. An Op Ed from the Financial Times foretells it all.

https://www.ft.com/content/1cca9a3a-8635-11e6-8897-2359a58ac7a5

 

[FluxCap]

Thanks for sharing, neroden.

Also, odds of HRC winning the US election in November have shot back up dramatically, and I expect odds to increase even further as the results of post-debate polls continue to come in over the next week or so. This is generally perceived as good for portfolios weighted towards tech and renewable energy (like mine).

Two sites I track constantly are these two:

Betting Markets:
Which party will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election?

Nate Silver's statistical probability analysis based on polling data and electoral map:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Using these metrics to predict outcome of US elections has made me money consistently in the past. Remember that the popular vote you read about in news articles is almost entirely irrelevant as a predictor of who will win. Electoral votes and battleground states are all that (sadly) matter.

Well gang, in my professional opinion (and I have helped run a US Presidential campaign before), this one is over. The latest "October Surprise" related to Trump's sexual assault history and views is going to be statistically really hard to come back from in swing states.

I'm feeling better about my portfolio now, significantly. Some nice buying opportunities exist on about a 3 to 6-month timeline, I think.

 

[tander]

Well gang, in my professional opinion (and I have helped run a US Presidential campaign before), this one is over. The latest "October Surprise" related to Trump's sexual assault history and views is going to be statistically really hard to come back from in swing states.

I'm feeling better about my portfolio now, significantly. Some nice buying opportunities exist on about a 3 to 6-month timeline, I think.

I wonder if Bama would try do some sort of carbon tax before leaving office, that would be HUGE for Tesla.

 

[geneclean55]

I wonder if Bama would try do some sort of carbon tax before leaving office, that would be HUGE for Tesla.

If Hilary sweeps in and there is a large coattail effect, you would think that Republicans would want to get some business done now before they are potentially side-lined next year.

 

[Lump]

Helps to look at charts during volatile times...

VIXplosion Slams Stocks To Longest Losing Streak Since Lehman | Zero Hedge

 

[FluxCap]

Helps to look at charts during volatile times...

VIXplosion Slams Stocks To Longest Losing Streak Since Lehman | Zero Hedge

Thanks for posting Lump. Miss reading your thoughts man.

Isn't VIX really just inversely correlated to the market indices most of the time? It's not like VIX is a sentient being with agency that does things.

And personally, when I start down the bottomless well of ZH articles, I've never profited from it.

But man do I wish I'd shorted into the hole on this latest fearmongering. Still if it all ends badly next week, my US-based investing days are over anyway.

I'm not kidding, I'm peacing out if the Orange VaJayJay Grabber wins.

 

[Turing]

Early voting in Nevada is looking promising.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Thanks for posting Lump. Miss reading your thoughts man.

Isn't VIX really just inversely correlated to the market indices most of the time? It's not like VIX is a sentient being with agency that does things.

VIX is based on S&P option prices. Option prices are based largely on Implied Volatility. What is probably happening right now is a lot of people are afraid of a possible Trump win and are buying lots of puts on the S&P 500 for hedging or speculation purposes, which drives up the IV, which drives up the VIX. So VIX isn't a sentient being but the people buying all those puts ARE sentient beings. Dumb sentient beings perhaps, but real people (well, could be bots too...)

In other words, VIX can shoot up with 0 movement in the indices or even a rise in the markets but like you said, it usually shoots up the most with drops in the market since that is when people decide to buy the most options (great idea to buy insurance once your house is on fire ).

Chicago Board Options Exchange - The World's Largest Options Exchange

 

[FluxCap]

Well gang, in my professional opinion (and I have helped run a US Presidential campaign before), this one is over. The latest "October Surprise" related to Trump's sexual assault history and views is going to be statistically really hard to come back from in swing states.

I'm feeling better about my portfolio now, significantly. Some nice buying opportunities exist on about a 3 to 6-month timeline, I think.

Just to chime in on this most important of days - please get out there and Vote!

My portfolio did not enjoy the bizarre Comey roller coaster ride, but I'm well positioned for what I believe will be a continued risk-on party after this election wraps up this evening. SPY and QQQ are going to be quite green tomorrow and into the new year, I think.

2017, here we come.

 

[Blip]

I know politics is a no-no on this forum, but are we just going to ignore the facts?

 

[FluxCap]

Just to chime in on this most important of days - please get out there and Vote!

My portfolio did not enjoy the bizarre Comey roller coaster ride, but I'm well positioned for what I believe will be a continued risk-on party after this election wraps up this evening. SPY and QQQ are going to be quite green tomorrow and into the new year, I think.

2017, here we come.

Well I got this one very, very wrong folks. I may not be around here as much for a while. I have rebalanced my portfolio to a heavily defensive and cash-rich posture and I'm uncertain as to where our country and our planetary economy is headed, particularly in the fight against global climate change. What this means for clean tech and companies like Tesla does not seem positive right now, but I just don't know. At this point, I just hope that Tesla survives to release the Model 3 we've all been dreaming of. We shall see. Godspeed, all.

 

[Turing]

Well I got this one very, very wrong folks. I may not be around here as much for a while. I have rebalanced my portfolio to a heavily defensive and cash-rich posture and I'm uncertain as to where our country and our planetary economy is headed, particularly in the fight against global climate change. What this means for clean tech and companies like Tesla does not seem positive right now, but I just don't know. At this point, I just hope that Tesla survives to release the Model 3 we've all been dreaming of. We shall see. Godspeed, all.

To try and look at the situation pragmatically, we will see a lot less dysfunction in congress - no more debt ceiling shut government down while spooking the markets nonsense. We will likely see a major infrastructure bill, that will be a nice stimulus for the economy. The fed has been complaining for years now that they can only do so much with their levers for driving economic output and that more needs to happen via congress - like a major infrastructure bill. Democrats still have a veto in the senate, there are some loopholes to that veto, but it is still useful in most cases.

 

[Lump]

Flux, sorry things didn't go as planed, email me any time.

 

[AudubonB]

Mod Note for ALL:

Off-topic posts and ranting, after a fashion, will be overlooked in the Investor Sector through this weekend. After that, ALL will be under closer scrutiny than ever.

Vetinari

 

[AudubonB]

Mod Note:

(not specifically directed toward any recent post; rather, this note is going to ALL active Investor threads).

LAST day of tolerance toward posts that otherwise would have been, and are, unacceptable. One week of election-related wailing and gnashing of teeth and blaming it on others and overall unproductive posts is enough.

 

[AudubonB]

***MOD NOTE***

Okay, fun time is over. I hope all were able to let off all the steam needed, because from now on we will have only decorum, and that of the highest order.

Besides, these Mod Notes are suffering from a bit of overuse.

 

[Lump]

Dow has rallied +2000 points from the futures low on Nov. 8th.