Trump a Good Negotiator?
Not directly related to investing, but I'm curious as to how effective a negotiator in a real world situation Trump is. If he really had some secret sauce one would have expected Trump University (right title?) would have been a success. Also, regarding traditional U.S. banks, eventually they had it with the guy. (If I remember correctly when they finally lowered the boom he was required to sell his yacht and restrict himself to spending only $800,000 a month.) Partners, labor, contractors, and creditors certainly took a bath over his casino plays in Atlantic City. But the success of the ventures does not address the issue of whether they were good deals to begin—a test of his negotiating skill.
Market Concerns
Bear in mind investors are already somewhat squeamish about tariffs, see the markets over the past week. Nuclear war or any Korean conflict will have an effect on the markets now and maybe profoundly. If it occurs it might start during the planned joint operations scheduled by the U.S. and South Korea in several weeks, just as Trump and Kim are to meet for a summit. An accident during such maneuvers or some outrageous attack against our fleets by the North (not likely) could be a pretext for escalation. Also, it is possible such maneuvers often are a pretext for wider war, cf the Tonkin Gulf incident. Whether the maneuvers are really a cover for taking out Kim, he must fear it a possibility.
Two Bullies Meet
The summit announced tonight by South Korean diplomats in a brief TV appearance at the White House sounds like a well-orchestrated ploy by two small elephants, the Koreas, one medium sized elephant, Japan, and a near jumbo in China. All Asian elephants who have joined together in a real tease of an offer to tame a rogue who dares to match his arsenal of nukes to the pitiful inventory of Kim's. (Regarding nuclear weapons, Churchill famously said, "it may not matter how high the rubble bounces." It is reputed Tillerson's calling Trump an idiot was prompted by a conversation over nuclear weapons.)
The End Game
The usual commentators in tonight's news fail to note success in this endeavor is mandatory. No party can lose face. Failure means war. I sincerely hope negotiations start by discussing a peace treaty, what it should include, who gives what, who gets what, and how to get there, bearing in mind that everyone must win or at least think they win. This armistice situation with a lot of huffing and puffing on both sides, has gone on long enough so the lesser powers with much more than we at stake in the outcome have set a trap. Georgy Arbatov in selling Gorbachev's retreat from Eastern Europe once said, "we are going to do something terrible to you, we're going to deprive you of an enemy." That is the intention of the two Korean leaders and the Chinese. It is in the interest of the Japanese though I have little knowledge of their position. They are surely more interested than Trump in avoiding another nuclear war since they have searing memories of the first.
An advice.