Tesla is going to do a 100D and P100D...

[EcoHeliGuy]

The ideal that the Cars presently have the 100Kwh pack isn't that far fetched. When the 70D came out people were a bit upset who ordered the 60 or 80 in the past. Where as the 90 was an upgrade and the 85 was still around. And there was the autopilot hardware that was already in the cars for a bit and was an option upgrade.

If the Model S and X have 100kwh batteries now (IF) then Tesla has decided it's better brand image marketing to implement and then a ounce.

Just like the new 19 rims on the model S

But unless your a founder don't expect for one second your getting a free upgrade.

 

[WarpedOne]

It would be a pay-for option + badge swap.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Just because the firmware has a placeholder for a 100KWh model doesn't mean it's going to happen anytime soon. I don't expect any battery pack upgrades until the Gigafactory is up and producing batteries for S and Xs. Tesla has been very quiet about the GF lately. Sometime last year they were expecting production to begin around Q3 of this year.

I disagree. The 90kWh packs use newer cells that use a small amount of silicon. I see those as transitional. They'll want to continue to increase the silicon content to improve density, and that would mean stopping production of the cells used in the 90kWh and replace them entirely with 100kWh packs.

The GF cell production is needed for large volume Model 3, but remember that Tesla's expecting 15GWh/year from other locations, so the cell production at GF1 isn't in any way necessary for the 100kWh upgrade.

 

[Darryl]

We would nieve to thing they had just stopped working on a more powerful battery after releasing the 90. What I had recently read the next step would be a 95 and to go to a 100 in the current platform was going to be very challenging to accomplish and would probably be the last increase for this platform. To go any higher capacity would only be possible on a new platform which will develop and produced at the gigafactory in Neveda.

The Gigafactory is a year behind and the current battery packs are produced on the upper floor at the Tesla Plant in Freemont (or at least they were the last I checked.) Model 3 will be based on the new battery platform made in NV and the base model of the Model 3 will go 200 miles per charge. Even though the Model 3 will be a sedan 20 percent smaller than the Model S it will be heavier because as it will not be made out of aluminum. There is nothing in this post which indicates a more powerful battery will be produced anytime soon just there will be one. The question is when. I would guess it would coincide with the new year.

 

[CarlK]

We would nieve to thing they had just stopped working on a more powerful battery after releasing the 90. What I had recently read the next step would be a 95 and to go to a 100 in the current platform was going to be very challenging to accomplish and would probably be the last increase for this platform. To go any higher capacity would only be possible on a new platform which will develop and produced at the gigafactory in Neveda.

The Gigafactory is a year behind and the current battery packs are produced on the upper floor at the Tesla Plant in Freemont (or at least they were the last I checked.) Model 3 will be based on the new battery platform made in NV and the base model of the Model 3 will go 200 miles per charge. Even though the Model 3 will be a sedan 20 percent smaller than the Model S it will be heavier because as it will not be made out of aluminum. There is nothing in this post which indicates a more powerful battery will be produced anytime soon just there will be one. The question is when. I would guess it would coincide with the new year.

100% agree. The only thing that is certian is there will be a higher capacity battery in the future even without this evnt. Otherwise when and at what capacity is still anyone's guess. One thing though is that it will be very close to X is first produced makes absolutely no sense.

I would say that if the Model X just doesn't quite meet your range needs and you just need another 11% on that battery to justify buying, you may want to wait. Bigger battery packs are always around the corner. For me, I'd like the X to have more range, but it's also great the way it is. For me I think the magical MX range would be around 400 miles, or what I can get with my nearly identical-sized Ford Explorer in ideal. To me that means while keeping the battery pack at the same weight, it needs a 144KWh pack. You know what, I'm going to enjoy my X when I get it here in the coming weeks and perhaps that bigger battery and 400mile+ range will be a reality in 4 to 6 years when I'm ready to get a new X or whatever.

Same thought here. Elon has said battery upgrade will come every 2~3 years but he doesn't think everyone will need to upgrade everytime. It does mean that you will be able to if you want. This current event changed absolutely nothing about how I feel about this whole battery thing.

 

[PeterK]

The Gigafactory is a year behind and the current battery packs are produced on the upper floor at the Tesla Plant in Freemont (or at least they were the last I checked.)

I've never heard anything about the Gigafactory being behind, in fact the last public announcement I heard is that they were ahead of schedule. Their year end 2015 employment numbers were within 10% of the commitments, and they have publicly stated that they are currently assembling battery packs there.

Yesterday at a conference I happened to meet a first-year MIT MBA student who will have an internship at the Gigafactory this summer - she is very much looking forward to it.

 

[EcoHeliGuy]

We would nieve to thing they had just stopped working on a more powerful battery after releasing the 90. What I had recently read the next step would be a 95 and to go to a 100 in the current platform was going to be very challenging to accomplish and would probably be the last increase for this platform. To go any higher capacity would only be possible on a new platform which will develop and produced at the gigafactory in Neveda.

The Gigafactory is a year behind and the current battery packs are produced on the upper floor at the Tesla Plant in Freemont (or at least they were the last I checked.) Model 3 will be based on the new battery platform made in NV and the base model of the Model 3 will go 200 miles per charge. Even though the Model 3 will be a sedan 20 percent smaller than the Model S it will be heavier because as it will not be made out of aluminum. There is nothing in this post which indicates a more powerful battery will be produced anytime soon just there will be one. The question is when. I would guess it would coincide with the new year.

This piece is full of personal opinion and very little fact. Not an attack, just pointing this out for others.

 

[thegruf]

My only concern is that the Model X is now open for design and ordering in Europe. The Sigs will be locked and confirmed on the 15th of March, but if they where to release a higher battery pack a couple of months down the road. Well, that would really suck... I would most definitely have chosen the 100kWh if the option was available.

Could we be in for a surprise at the unveiling of Model 3? Would they announce a 100kWh battery pack for the Model S and Model X so they don't risk cannibalising the sales for their top models? And would it be upgradeable for cars in production right now or soon to be? Guess we'll find out soon enough.

Personally I think I would wait for a 100kWh pack if it takes a few months extra, rather getting the 90kWh pack. Range is everything IMHO (especially if you want to use the towing a fair bit).

How long? Nothing said here has mentioned timescales.
With Tesla as much as any auto manufacturer, you need to look at what is available today, or at least at the time you wiant to buy and decide if that is the right vehicle/price for you.
There will always be something better tomorrow. In my case I was seriously thinking about holding off for Autopilot 2 hardware, but then I decided to buy what was available and so glad that I did, have been driving around for the last 3 months with huge smile on my face, instead of stressing about what was coming next and continuing to drive around in a polluting relic of an ICE.

I can say with some conviction that a 120KWH pack is coming too. The only definitive part of that statement is that it will come after a 100KWH pack if and when that happens.
You can wait forever, or you can jump in and enjoy. Your choice

 

[Darryl]

I've never heard anything about the Gigafactory being behind, in fact the last public announcement I heard is that they were ahead of schedule. Their year end 2015 employment numbers were within 10% of the commitments, and they have publicly stated that they are currently assembling battery packs there.

Yesterday at a conference I happened to meet a first-year MIT MBA student who will have an internship at the Gigafactory this summer - she is very much looking forward to it.

I am strictly basing the information regarding the delay on what I am reading in the news. Here is an example. Attached is an article from FastMoney called “Elon Musk Powers Up: Inside Tesla's $5 Billion Gigafactory” back on November 17, 2015 in the section called “Giga-Economy” specifically says production to begin in early 2016.


Elon Musk Powers Up: Inside Tesla's $5 Billion Gigafactory | Fast Company | Business + Innovation


But in an article dated January 28th 2016 from fool.com called “The Latest On Tesla Motors, Inc.'s Gigafactory” you will see a chart titled “Gigafactory Projected Timeframe” which was Tesla’s own chart showing production launch is in now early 2017. Tesla has denied there is a delay even though the original planned production date was early 2016.


The Latest On Tesla Motors, Inc.'s Gigafactory -- The Motley Fool


As some point the date manufacturing would begin shifted by a year based on these two articles.

 

[luca]

"begin in early 2016" that is package production, which already began at last quater, cell production will begin at 2017

I am strictly basing the information regarding the delay on what I am reading in the news. Here is an example. Attached is an article from FastMoney called “Elon Musk Powers Up: Inside Tesla's $5 Billion Gigafactory” back on November 17, 2015 in the section called “Giga-Economy” specifically says production to begin in early 2016.


Elon Musk Powers Up: Inside Tesla's $5 Billion Gigafactory | Fast Company | Business + Innovation


But in an article dated January 28th 2016 from fool.com called “The Latest On Tesla Motors, Inc.'s Gigafactory” you will see a chart titled “Gigafactory Projected Timeframe” which was Tesla’s own chart showing production launch is in now early 2017. Tesla has denied there is a delay even though the original planned production date was early 2016.


The Latest On Tesla Motors, Inc.'s Gigafactory -- The Motley Fool


As some point the date manufacturing would begin shifted by a year based on these two articles.

 

[thegruf]

the quality UK mag Autoexpress joins in the fun ... Elon basks in the free publicity

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/tesla/model-s/94336/tesla-model-s-p100d-on-the-way

 

[ohmman]

So let's talk about potential range improvements on a 100D over a 90D.

I don't know the pack weight difference between the 70 and 90 packs - and I don't see anyone discussing that on TMC (based on a search). That information is pertinent, so anyone who has it, please chime in.

I ran the numbers a bunch of different ways - assuming linear relationships between 70D and 90D ranges and their relative pack sizes, looking at the MS range numbers vs. pack sizes and backing down into the numbers for the 85D, etc. For example, the MS 90D is advertised as having 6% more range as the 85D. And 5kWh is about 6% of 85.. so that implies a nearly linear relationship. I wound up with various results, but my most reasonable guesstimate is 271 miles.

I got this by looking at the range density (linear) function:

220/70 = 3.14mi/kWh
257/90 = 2.86mi/kWh
slope = -0.014365 mi/kWh
Density of 100D = 2.712mi/kWh
2.712 * 100kWh = 271.2 miles.

Please tear me apart for this analysis.

 

[jaguar36]

That sounds reasonable. The only question is how big the pack on the 100 actually is. Since the 85kwhr pack is really only 80, and the 90 is really only 85, Its logical that the 100 could be 95, or it could be actually 100. If its actually 100, then you'd be at around ~284.

 

[msnow]

So let's talk about potential range improvements on a 100D over a 90D.

I don't know the pack weight difference between the 70 and 90 packs - and I don't see anyone discussing that on TMC (based on a search). That information is pertinent, so anyone who has it, please chime in.

I ran the numbers a bunch of different ways - assuming linear relationships between 70D and 90D ranges and their relative pack sizes, looking at the MS range numbers vs. pack sizes and backing down into the numbers for the 85D, etc. For example, the MS 90D is advertised as having 6% more range as the 85D. And 5kWh is about 6% of 85.. so that implies a nearly linear relationship. I wound up with various results, but my most reasonable guesstimate is 271 miles.

I got this by looking at the range density (linear) function:

220/70 = 3.14mi/kWh
257/90 = 2.86mi/kWh
slope = -0.014365 mi/kWh
Density of 100D = 2.712mi/kWh
2.712 * 100kWh = 271.2 miles.

Please tear me apart for this analysis.

What type of range are you calculating, rated?

 

[ohmman]

What type of range are you calculating, rated?

EPA, so yes.

 

[msnow]

EPA, so yes.

The EPA rated range on the 90D is 286 or 6% higher than the 270 EPA rated range of the 85D which, I thought, would put the 100D well into the 300's. What am I missing, added weight?

 

[ohmman]

The EPA rated range on the 90D is 286 or 6% higher than the 270 EPA rated range of the 85D which, I thought, would put the 100D well into the 300's. What am I missing, added weight?

This is the Model X forum.

 

[Vitold]

So let's talk about potential range improvements on a 100D over a 90D.

I don't know the pack weight difference between the 70 and 90 packs - and I don't see anyone discussing that on TMC (based on a search). That information is pertinent, so anyone who has it, please chime in.

I ran the numbers a bunch of different ways - assuming linear relationships between 70D and 90D ranges and their relative pack sizes, looking at the MS range numbers vs. pack sizes and backing down into the numbers for the 85D, etc. For example, the MS 90D is advertised as having 6% more range as the 85D. And 5kWh is about 6% of 85.. so that implies a nearly linear relationship. I wound up with various results, but my most reasonable guesstimate is 271 miles.

I got this by looking at the range density (linear) function:

220/70 = 3.14mi/kWh
257/90 = 2.86mi/kWh
slope = -0.014365 mi/kWh
Density of 100D = 2.712mi/kWh
2.712 * 100kWh = 271.2 miles.

Please tear me apart for this analysis.

There was a change in chemistry between 85 and 90. Therefore it would be the best to calculate range density based on 70 and 85kWh models. In addition 70+15=85+15=100.

Henceforth (range taken from wikipedia):
70D: 240/70= 3.42mi/kWh
85D: 270/85=3.17
100D: 2.92 mi/kWh

Model S100D EPA range: 100*2.80=292 miles; probably a bit more due to decreased weight due to silicone doping.

On a similar topic, increased battery coincides nicely with the time when Tesla will discontinue selling batteries to other car makers therefore it does make (more) sense that 100D is near.

 

[ohmman]

OK, I was about to reply before your MX edit (the topic doesn't make it clear we're in the Model X Forum, understood). But it sounds like you overall agree that 271 will be the max, advertised probably around 270.

So the question for those who might "wait" for the 100D to come at some point soon - is it worth waiting longer, and paying more, for the 13 miles of added range? This would start to overlap with this thread: Is 37 more miles worth $13,000?

 

[AlMc]

OK, I was about to reply before your MX edit (the topic doesn't make it clear we're in the Model X Forum, understood). But it sounds like you overall agree that 271 will be the max, advertised probably around 270.

So the question for those who might "wait" for the 100D to come at some point soon - is it worth waiting longer, and paying more, for the 13 miles of added range? This would start to overlap with this thread: Is 37 more miles worth $13,000?

This is a difficult question. As many here know my X order delay is due to lack of folding seats. I am hoping that this feature becomes available and that one 'present' for my delay is a 100kW batt. My wife has range anxiety so I will go for the biggest battery available at the time of order...hopefully a 100+