Tesla is going to do a 100D and P100D...

[AlMc]

I have sent along my thoughts to TM HQ about 'how to introduce the '100'...like they need AlMc to tell them:scared:

My thought is that they would get through the Osborne effect/create good PR vs the dreaded 'I just missed the 100bat..i am ticked off' by installing the 100s as soon as they come available. Price and sell them as a '90' and at one date of their choosing in 2-3 months unveil the P100DL at what will certainly be a higher price point. Then......inform all those people with the hidden 100s..'For a small fee we will via software upgrade unlock the full 100 bat capacity.

Yes, this would cost a little extra upfront but I would bet MANY people would upgrade and offset that cost quickly.....and think of the positive PR :wink:

 

[CarlK]

Tesla has already done that with the introduction of 90 kWh battery. Just make it an option and after a while eliminate the old battery from the option list. People who want too order a car a month after you take delivery can always decide whether they want to pay for the upgrade. :wink:

 

[pvogel]

Tesla has already done that with the introduction of 90 kWh battery. Just make it an option and after a while eliminate the old battery from the option list. People who want too order a car a month after you take delivery can always decide whether they want to pay for the upgrade. :wink:

^^THIS^^

Remember, a battery can be swapped out in ~90 seconds at the factory and at Harris Ranch.

I, for one, would probably upgrade if it became available. I'd like to be able to pull a fairly large (but lightweight) trailer all around CA, into Oregon and AZ. For that I'll need confidence I can make it from SC to SC.

 

[ohmman]

I, for one, would probably upgrade if it became available. I'd like to be able to pull a fairly large (but lightweight) trailer all around CA, into Oregon and AZ. For that I'll need confidence I can make it from SC to SC.

I also have aspirations of pulling a trailer around. However, I think the reality of disconnecting the trailer at each SC stop (every 1.5-2 hours) will probably kill the joy. Unless Tesla decides to make some other options for SC+trailering, like parallel spots disjoint with the other SC banks, I think more than 1-2 SC stops will be unrealistic.

I had imagined 1 SC stop per day with overnights at RV locations that had a 14-50. However, that limits you to probably 200-250 miles a day.

 

[AnOutsider]

I also have aspirations of pulling a trailer around. However, I think the reality of disconnecting the trailer at each SC stop (every 1.5-2 hours) will probably kill the joy. Unless Tesla decides to make some other options for SC+trailering, like parallel spots disjoint with the other SC banks, I think more than 1-2 SC stops will be unrealistic.

I had imagined 1 SC stop per day with overnights at RV locations that had a 14-50. However, that limits you to probably 200-250 miles a day.

I think you may be right. The trip we are planning for the summer would be 2-3 SC stops, but since we're looking for a small trailer I think (hope?) it won't be that much of an inconvenience. Should that go well, like you, we want to do some travelling across the country with nightly stops at campgrounds. If they offer a 100kwh pack at a decent price (and it actually delivers ~10% more range, or 25 extra rated miles), I'm all in.

heck, might upgrade the aging S as well :wink:

 

[ohmman]

Not to commandeer and derail this thread, but I have emailed [email protected] with my requests and suggestions for trailer-specific stalls. If anyone else has the desire for these to be available, I suggest you do the same.

 

[AlMc]

Not to commandeer and derail this thread, but I have emailed [email protected] with my requests and suggestions for trailer-specific stalls. If anyone else has the desire for these to be available, I suggest you do the same.

There are pictures of some SCs that are pull through. I will search for them and try to post. So, they are out there.

 

[ohmman]

There are pictures of some SCs that are pull through. I will search for them and try to post. So, they are out there.

Some pull-through spots don't have space behind them for trailers because of the through-way.

If you know of ones that do, I would appreciate if you'd edit the wiki I created here:

Trailer-friendly Supercharger Locations

 

[Mark Z]

Not to commandeer and derail this thread, but I have emailed [email protected] with my requests and suggestions for trailer-specific stalls. If anyone else has the desire for these to be available, I suggest you do the same.

The "Mickey and Friends Parking Structure" at Disneyland in California has an overcrowded EV charge station capacity (20 - J1772 EVSE). Weekends are filled up.

What would be good is for those who pull trailers, give ChargePoint a call or write to request that they install some EVSEs nearby in the huge pull through bus and trailer parking area.

 

[brianman]

I have sent along my thoughts to TM HQ about 'how to introduce the '100'...like they need AlMc to tell them:scared:

My thought is that they would get through the Osborne effect/create good PR vs the dreaded 'I just missed the 100bat..i am ticked off' by installing the 100s as soon as they come available. Price and sell them as a '90' and at one date of their choosing in 2-3 months unveil the P100DL at what will certainly be a higher price point. Then......inform all those people with the hidden 100s..'For a small fee we will via software upgrade unlock the full 100 bat capacity.

Yes, this would cost a little extra upfront but I would bet MANY people would upgrade and offset that cost quickly.....and think of the positive PR :wink:

If you start with the assumption that the 100 kWh packs cost more to produce than the 90 kWh packs, then this post amounts to "Tesla should take a hit on profits because some customers and would-be customers have trouble with the concept of 'continuous improvement in our product offerings'." I don't think that's a good idea as a general principle.

If you start with the assumption that the 100 kWh packs cost the same or less to produce than 90 kWh packs, I'd like to hear why. (Intellectual curiosity.)

 

[vandacca]

If you start with the assumption that the 100 kWh packs cost more to produce than the 90 kWh packs, then this post amounts to "Tesla should take a hit on profits because some customers and would-be customers have trouble with the concept of 'continuous improvement in our product offerings'." I don't think that's a good idea as a general principle.

If you start with the assumption that the 100 kWh packs cost the same or less to produce than 90 kWh packs, I'd like to hear why. (Intellectual curiosity.)

Obviously the 100 kWh packs will cost more to produce than the 90 kWh packs. What's not obvious is how much more expensive. There is a very wrong impression that Lithium Ion batteries are really expensive, making up a significant part of the cost of a vehicle. JB Straubel, Elon and others have all hinted that it's not so. Check this video (~35 min mark) and how JB didn't want to answer how expensive the battery packs are, but indicated that they are a small percentage of the cost of the car. I watched dozens of similar videos by various industry professionals that all indicate the same thing - Lithium Ion batteries are cheaper than we think.

Therefore, the extra cost of adding an additional 10kWh is pretty negligible and is probably cheaper than having to pay the labour of a battery swap. I wouldn't discount Tesla adding additional capacity for future upgrades.

 

[brianman]

I watched dozens of similar videos by various industry professionals that all indicate the same thing - Lithium Ion batteries are cheaper than we think.

I'd like to believe. I will believe when I have a firm price from Tesla to upgrade my 85 kWh Sig to 100 kWh and an install date that is before my next birthday.

 

[Bangor Bob]

Obviously the 100 kWh packs will cost more to produce than the 90 kWh packs.

Uh, it's not obvious at all. If the 100kWh packs are using a cell with improved electrical characteristics but which are for some reason not able to be used in the 90kWh pack without retooling (say for instance they're an early version of a Gigafactory 20700 cell being made by Panasonic) -- then they very well could be cheaper than 90kWh packs....

In the absence of data, we really can't say if they cost less, the same, or more...

 

[vandacca]

I'd like to believe. I will believe when I have a firm price from Tesla to upgrade my 85 kWh Sig to 100 kWh and an install date that is before my next birthday.

Cost is one thing. Having the will, the resources and the time to implement it is another. Tesla has a battery upgrade program for the Roadster, but it sounds like it's over a year delayed. Bonnie, did you ever upgrade your Roadster?? I suspect it will happen, but on Tesla time. Save your birthday candles for a different wish. I'm hoping in ~10 years to upgrade to a 105+ kWh battery. By then Tesla should have figured it out and getting battery upgrades done regularly.

- - - Updated - - -

Uh, it's not obvious at all. If the 100kWh packs are using a cell with improved electrical characteristics but which are for some reason not able to be used in the 90kWh pack without retooling (say for instance they're an early version of a Gigafactory 20700 cell being made by Panasonic) -- then they very well could be cheaper than 90kWh packs....

In the absence of data, we really can't say if they cost less, the same, or more...

Yes, but the cost of the first batteries are always inflated and cost more to recoup R&D. It's generally accepted that even though new technology (like SSDs, OLED TVs, EVs, etc.) are theoretically cheaper to manufacturer, the price is always much higher initially.

 

[brianman]

If you start with the assumption that the 100 kWh packs cost the same or less to produce than 90 kWh packs, I'd like to hear why. (Intellectual curiosity.)

If the 100kWh packs are using a cell with improved electrical characteristics but which are for some reason not able to be used in the 90kWh pack without retooling (say for instance they're an early version of a Gigafactory 20700 cell being made by Panasonic) -- then they very well could be cheaper than 90kWh packs....

Thanks for answering my question.

Now let's get back to this proposal:

My thought is that they would get through the Osborne effect/create good PR vs the dreaded 'I just missed the 100bat..i am ticked off' by installing the 100s as soon as they come available. Price and sell them as a '90' and at one date of their choosing in 2-3 months unveil the P100DL at what will certainly be a higher price point. Then......inform all those people with the hidden 100s..'For a small fee we will via software upgrade unlock the full 100 bat capacity.

If 100 kWh packs are cheaper to produce, then this plan becomes viable.

The problem though is that there would still be the "ticked off" effect -- just like there was with people who took delivery of vehicles with "off by 10" VINs in the game of "autopilot hardware roulette".

 

[pvogel]

Obviously the 100 kWh packs will cost more to produce than the 90 kWh packs. What's not obvious is how much more expensive. There is a very wrong impression that Lithium Ion batteries are really expensive, making up a significant part of the cost of a vehicle. JB Straubel, Elon and others have all hinted that it's not so. Check this video (~35 min mark) and how JB didn't want to answer how expensive the battery packs are, but indicated that they are a small percentage of the cost of the car. I watched dozens of similar videos by various industry professionals that all indicate the same thing - Lithium Ion batteries are cheaper than we think.

Therefore, the extra cost of adding an additional 10kWh is pretty negligible and is probably cheaper than having to pay the labour of a battery swap. I wouldn't discount Tesla adding additional capacity for future upgrades.

Given that battery swap is totally automated, I don't think there's any labor cost concern.

But, consider this -- as a low-volume *hobbyist* I can buy a 200wH pack of cells for about $80 *retail*. So for $36,000 I can assemble a 90kWh pack. Granted, it won't having the liquid cooling, etc. but the basic energy storage would be there. So I would definitely agree with you that the cost of the pack and, more importantly for this discussion, the incremental cost of a 100kWh pack vs a 90kWh pack is going to be quite minimal.

 

[AlMc]

Thanks for answering my question.

Now let's get back to this proposal:

If 100 kWh packs are cheaper to produce, then this plan becomes viable.

The problem though is that there would still be the "ticked off" effect -- just like there was with people who took delivery of vehicles with "off by 10" VINs in the game of "autopilot hardware roulette".

My premise is not that the 100 would be the same or cheaper to produce. My thought is that it would be slightly (how much??) more
expensive up front to TM but that a large percentage (WAG 75%) of people would pay to have the software release of the extra '10' once the '100' was officially announced.

I agree that you will still have some people who 'just missed' but that is the nature of tech improvements at TM

 

[wdolson]

I think you may be right. The trip we are planning for the summer would be 2-3 SC stops, but since we're looking for a small trailer I think (hope?) it won't be that much of an inconvenience. Should that go well, like you, we want to do some travelling across the country with nightly stops at campgrounds. If they offer a 100kwh pack at a decent price (and it actually delivers ~10% more range, or 25 extra rated miles), I'm all in.

heck, might upgrade the aging S as well :wink:

When people predict large scale changes to the Model S, I'm one of the first to point out that probably isn't going to happen anytime soon. However, the Model S and X share the same skateboard (there may be some minor differences, but they are pretty much the same) which means any upgrades to one that affects the skateboard only is very likely to become available for the other at the same time or very soon after. The only hardware changes to the Model S in 2015 were all things that were designed for the Model X and introduced with it.

It makes economic as well as good sales sense to offer the same skateboard features on both models. Each option difference costs money to maintain the production line for it. If they can reduce the options, that makes production cheaper. This is why some features have been dropped over time as sales for them were sluggish, and other options became regular features because most people bought them anyway. The 85KWh battery probably got discontinued because the demand for it was too low to justify keeping it in production and they wanted to convert the production line making the batteries for the 85 KWh to something else, quite possibly the 100 KWh battery chemistry.

 

[Canuck]

But, consider this -- as a low-volume *hobbyist* I can buy a 200wH pack of cells for about $80 *retail*. So for $36,000 I can assemble a 90kWh pack. Granted, it won't having the liquid cooling, etc. but the basic energy storage would be there.

It wouldn't be the same. First, if you are pricing generic cells the capacity is a lot less than advertised. If you are pricing Panasonic cells, then Tesla isn't just using regular Panasonic lithium ions 1850 batteries that you can by online. Typically, lithium-ion NCA batteries use a combination of 80% nickel, 15% cobalt and 5% aluminum. It’s unclear what mix Tesla and Panasonic’s battery combination is and what other, if any, elements are added. The addition of the aluminum to the NCA battery makes it more stable but it isn't known what percentage aluminium Tesla is using.

 

[vandacca]

It wouldn't be the same. First, if you are pricing generic cells the capacity is a lot less than advertised. If you are pricing Panasonic cells, then Tesla isn't just using regular Panasonic lithium ions 1850 batteries that you can by online. Typically, lithium-ion NCA batteries use a combination of 80% nickel, 15% cobalt and 5% aluminum. It’s unclear what mix Tesla and Panasonic’s battery combination is and what other, if any, elements are added. The addition of the aluminum to the NCA battery makes it more stable but it isn't known what percentage aluminium Tesla is using.

Ballpark. There are a lot of factors involved, for example, Tesla's preferential bulk pricing. I'm sure Peter's $36,000 wasn't meant to be an exact amount, just a ballpark. I would expect that Tesla can make a 90 kWh pack for significantly cheaper than $36k.