Tesla is Peaking in Q3 '22

[EightYears]

My opinion based on nothing than my observations, but my gut says that Tesla deliveries will peak in Q3 '22 but 2022 will still set a new record Year end total delivered. 2023 will be a declining year which I attribute to overall economy deteriorating, more competition and biggest of all the general lack of a consistent reliable service department and overall poor-quality control. If service and quality control do not improve dramatically there will be rough years ahead. Consumers expect more and Tesla is not delivering.

I am mostly talking about U.S. I understand they have a ton of capacity coming up but will the demand be there? I'm not so sure unless some changes happen.

Opinions/Thoughts?

 

[Leeclanual]

Nah… they’ll sell these things like hotcakes for years to come. I do agree the MS sales will slump with the economy in recession… but sales of cheaper MY and M3 will continue with long waiting lists.

 

[SantaFeSpence]

I, too, don’t think demand will flag very much, if at all - primarily because of the cost of gasoline and Tesla’s Supercharger network. I do, however, believe that Tesla must improve its customer service and, if the views of so many on this forum are accurate, their build-quality issues.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Model S and X are incosiquential to Tesla sales and revenue numbers at this point in my opinion. Yes, they are probably the highest margin vehicles in the Tesla lineup be their numbers are so small as to be almost irrelevant to Tesla's success. Berlin and Austin are still in the very early stages of their ramps. Semi and Cybertuck are coming next year with hundreds of thousands of people patiently waiting delivery. No sign of demand slump.

Nope, not buying the 2023 sales dip.

Dan

 

[The Lorax]

My opinion based on nothing than my observations, but my gut says that Tesla deliveries will peak in Q3 '22 but 2022 will still set a new record Year end total delivered. 2023 will be a declining year which I attribute to overall economy deteriorating, more competition and biggest of all the general lack of a consistent reliable service department and overall poor-quality control. If service and quality control do not improve dramatically there will be rough years ahead. Consumers expect more and Tesla is not delivering.

Hey! I remember reading an almost identical quote in 2015. You know that plagiarism isn't cool, right?

 

[NickFie]

Slump is unlikely. Demonstrated economy vs. ICE will drive fleet demand - rental, taxi, business, government - that can make up for any dip in consumer demand. Tesla’s large profit margin leaves room for price cuts that make the cars affordable to more people.

 

[roblab]

And you just gave your gut 3 bowls of chili and two pints of beer, right? Price of gasoline in our little valley is $7 a gallon, which on a small car will cost you about $70 for 400 miles. Probably more. Price of a full battery that will get me around 400 miles of range would run me ~ $14, about 20% what you paid.

May I remind you that I can fill up my car at virtually any 110- or 220-volt outlet, like those in my garage. These outlets are, also virtually, everywhere. Gasoline pumps are not virtually everywhere. You have to go to a gas station and stand out in the weather and get your hands smelly. In CA, that's not so bad, but in places with cold, snow, rain, high winds, snow with high winds, it's no fun. Speaking of gas stations, I also don't need oil changes. I have owned four Teslas and NEVER had them serviced for anything in a combined 250,000 miles of ownership. I used to own a Toyota, and oil and filter would cost me around $60 at the dealer every 7000 miles ten years ago. I bet it costs more now.

Sooner or later folks will start to realize that electrics are better in many ways. Prices will drop, but demand will keep them up. After a while, you'll be able to get a really good deal on a Golf or Civic, but no one will want to buy them. Electricity is everywhere. I used to have to drive ten miles to town to fill up my cars, but I could have filled up my Tesla in my garage overnight.

 

[EightYears]

Hey! I remember reading an almost identical quote in 2015. You know that plagiarism isn't cool, right?

These are my original thoughts sadly.

 

[EightYears]

And you just gave your gut 3 bowls of chili and two pints of beer, right? Price of gasoline in our little valley is $7 a gallon, which on a small car will cost you about $70 for 400 miles. Probably more. Price of a full battery that will get me around 400 miles of range would run me ~ $14, about 20% what you paid.

May I remind you that I can fill up my car at virtually any 110- or 220-volt outlet, like those in my garage. These outlets are, also virtually, everywhere. Gasoline pumps are not virtually everywhere. You have to go to a gas station and stand out in the weather and get your hands smelly. In CA, that's not so bad, but in places with cold, snow, rain, high winds, snow with high winds, it's no fun. Speaking of gas stations, I also don't need oil changes. I have owned four Teslas and NEVER had them serviced for anything in a combined 250,000 miles of ownership. I used to own a Toyota, and oil and filter would cost me around $60 at the dealer every 7000 miles ten years ago. I bet it costs more now.

Sooner or later folks will start to realize that electrics are better in many ways. Prices will drop, but demand will keep them up. After a while, you'll be able to get a really good deal on a Golf or Civic, but no one will want to buy them. Electricity is everywhere. I used to have to drive ten miles to town to fill up my cars, but I could have filled up my Tesla in my garage overnight.

I do not disagree with anything you're saying. These are some of the very reasons I love our Tesla. I am a first-time owner.

The experience you have had is for sure an outlier having no issues in 250K miles. I hope I am as lucky as you. I can't even get a set of Snow Tires delivered by Tesla that I ordered while in stock in August. I am still waiting with no ETA. Meanwhile they already stole the 3K from my account. Tesla could care less about my experience. The service needs to improve. I am merely stating that in the short term here (1-3YRS) it is my opinion that Tesla will struggle, and other manufacturers have an opportunity to capitalize if Tesla doesn't improve.

 

[EightYears]

Can’t wait to see what the end of year numbers are. Heavy discounts on all models. Big push here. 2023 will be interesting…

 

[csammy]

Model S LR owners are especially suffering. They're trying to sell their 100k cars used as if it will hold its value. It's a shame Tesla priced the model S out of the mainstream market, now there are alternatives for those who want a bigger sized electric sedan but not forced into something small like the Model 3 or pay 100k.

The model S was already somewhat overpriced at 79k and all the price hikes since then have only hurt it. With used car prices in general and especially on Teslas falling like a rock, it's a correction long over due.