TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Tesla is red hot in China, for different reasons

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by FredTMC, Jan 23, 2014.

  1. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2012
    Messages:
    3,016
    Location:
    Orange County CA
    Was just discussed on CNBC. Nice comments. Main cnbc guy for the segment felt that it'll sell like crazy.

    then that bald commentator with the ponytail weighed in saying "it won't sell well in china. It's not a luxury brand there". IMO this commentator doesn't get it at all. My view is Chinese will love this car. It's more than just the car.... Pollution, oil, global warming etc. it'll become a big status symbol.
     
  2. fito

    fito New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2014
    Messages:
    4
    Location:
    connecticut, USA
    Just came back from a trip to China. I am convinced that Tesla will be a big hit there. In Beijing and Shanghai, Tesla had being talked at almost every dinner I attended. News about Tesla are everywhere, from internet forums to government controlled media. Every piece of news and comment form American is instantly translated into Chinese, spread over internet and followed by hundreds of comments (most are positive). Local stocks are tried in every imaginable way to relate themselves to Tesla. An example is that a company was rumored to co-market Tesla's car in China surged 80% in a few days before the rumor was confirmed merely as a rumor. I did not get a chance to visit the only Tesla store in Beijing. A guy said in less than 1 hour he spent in the store, he saw two deposits were put down. It is hardly believed that just 6 month ago, few people knew Tesla there.

    However, the reason for its popularity in China is different from that of American. Instead of trading in their Prius, Tesla buyers in China are trading their 7 series or S classes. Most of them have never paid any attention to Prius because of its economic car image although Toyota has marketed the car in China for many years. Tesla however, is viewed as the most fashionable and exclusive symbol. Those who get a chance to own one will reaffirm their status as social elites and fashion leaders beyond tasteless riches by showing their connection to the most advanced silicon valley technology.
    (I posted this in Yahoo message board under a different screen name a few days ago, before I join TMC)
     
  3. blakegallagher

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2012
    Messages:
    935
    Location:
    South Texas
    glad to hear this :). I believe Elon when he said they will not be able to meet demand but its great to hear yet another source confirming this.
     
  4. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2011
    Messages:
    15,487
    Just a note: For some Americans, this is a very familiar story. Good to hear this message translates into Chinese. :)
     
  5. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2012
    Messages:
    1,684
    Location:
    US
    thanks fito. this gives some credence to a gut feeling I've had.

    perhaps some people in the EU can chime in, but I suspect there was a kind of Tesla mania here in North America last year that did not occur on anywhere near the same scale in the EU, but is happening on an even bigger scale in China than it did in NA, as fito's post suggests. in the end, I think the EU will catch up with Tesla's projected demand over a year or two, but even before they catch up, China will be a larger beat on demand than any temporary EU shortfall.
     
  6. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    2,564
    Location:
    San Diego
    I'd love to know how many reservations they have in China as of now.

    With speculation, I like to rely on empirical data. So, if we've got reservation numbers that would be the best. If we don't have reservation numbers, then we ought to rely on China reservation holders to let us know what demand is like. Or, if I lived in Beijing I would go to the Tesla Beijing store a few times a week over a long period of time and do my own fact-finding and surveys. I would overhear all the conversations and also make friends with the sales reps to find out how reservations are going.
     
  7. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2011
    Messages:
    14,241
    Location:
    Columbia River Gorge
    I'll be there in late May and will check things out from the ground. It's always fun to see the excitement first-hand. I keep a list of the big news items I expect to pop TSLA in 2014. 'Sales in China' is definitely on that list.
     
  8. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2012
    Messages:
    3,209
    Location:
    Rome (Italy)
    @Bonnie

    IMO China is such a potential big market for Tesla that all the plans done for 2014 and 2015 could be completely changed (in a positive way for Tesla of course). To this concern I would like to know what are the plans of Tesla with reference to the Supercharger network in China?
     
  9. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2011
    Messages:
    14,241
    Location:
    Columbia River Gorge
    I'm sure they will announce that, Raffy.
     
  10. artsci

    artsci Sponsor

    Joined:
    May 10, 2012
    Messages:
    4,683
    Location:
    Timonium, Maryland
    I called this when I visited the yet unopened Tesla store in Beijing last September.

    "I don't know the extent of the buzz in
    China but I'm quite sure that once it hits the streets it will sell like hotcakes. The Chinese are even more status conscious than Americans and I'm quite sure the Model S, as a luxury car that is vastly environmentally superior to BMWs and Audis (which are a dime a dozen on Beijing streets), will become a hot status item very quickly. The fact that the Model S is new and rare will add to its appeal."
     
  11. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    2,564
    Location:
    San Diego
    Thanks, Bonnie. Will look forward to your firsthand report.
     
  12. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2012
    Messages:
    1,684
    Location:
    US
    Raffy, any thoughts on the extent Tesla is entering public awareness in Italy and the EU? for context, here in the U.S., as recently as a year ago, my sense is only a small part of the public knew about Tesla. Today, my sense is anyone is as likely here to have heard of it as not, and, (definitely generalizing), those who've only come to know it see it positively, as roughly "the Apple of cars", though many may not be aware that Tesla wants to be in the reach of the middle class.
     
  13. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2013
    Messages:
    1,915
    Location:
    Texas
    Thanks for the first hand report.

    I have been saying this for 6 months now.
     
  14. maoing

    maoing Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2014
    Messages:
    1,275
    Location:
    San Diego
    Fully agree with fito. China will be the biggest market for Tesla, at least account for 50%. Here are my reasons:
    1. China has very large pool of affluent consumers, it's world's larget luxury car market, e.g. accounts 49% of Benz S class sales from 2010-2012. With model S priced significantly lower than it's US competitors in China, the demand will be easily over 50K/year for model S alone and potentially over 100K/year combining model S and X in the future;
    2. EV is the most suitable solution for battling air pollution issues in big chinese city like Beijing, Shanghai and almost everywhere. Chinese government is really focusing on the path and have generous subsidy and incentive plan for domestic EV manufacturers;
    3. EV has not as much as "range anxiety" in China like in US because chinese ususally live in big city downtown, their commute is mainly within the city. The highway is much less busy than US ones, so long distance driving is not a major concern for chinese even it's still an issue needs to be resolved;

    The major concern is the home charger installation. The % of chinese owning a house with dedicated garage is low, so it's not quite convenient to install charger in apartment and roadside parking. But I think it's an issue not only for tesla but also for other EVs, so Chinese government and Tesla will find solutions eventually before it becomes a limiting factor for sales volume (so far it's still production limited)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Two other points:
    4. EV has great advantage of energy consumption in traffic jam which is very common in chinese big cities
    5. In China the electricity bill is about 1/3 of US and gasoline price is 3x of US, so the EV energy consumption cost is estimated to be 1/10 of ICE compared to only 1/3 in US

    - - - Updated - - -

    There is a thread in www.autohome.com.cn TESLA forum about this. Summarize some reports in below:
    model S:
    2/23: 574
    2/26: 623
    3/13: 892
    model X:
    2/07: 351



     
  15. maoing

    maoing Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2014
    Messages:
    1,275
    Location:
    San Diego
    why my reply can't be displayed?

    - - - Updated - - -

    I had two other replies lost in this thread.
     
  16. maoing

    maoing Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2014
    Messages:
    1,275
    Location:
    San Diego
    I double checked the thread, it's for model X only. So the model X reservation # is as below:
    model X:
    order date: reservation number
    2/07: 351
    2/23: 574
    2/26: 623
    3/13: 892
     
  17. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    2,564
    Location:
    San Diego
    Does that site have any reservation numbers for Model S? (http://club.autohome.com.cn/bbs/forum-c-2357-1.html)

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think it's because you're a new member your first post or so needs to be approved. But your earlier posts are now showing.
     
  18. maoing

    maoing Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2014
    Messages:
    1,275
    Location:
    San Diego
  19. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    2,564
    Location:
    San Diego
    It appears the 3/13 892 number is incorrect. The 892 number seems like the first three digits of a Model S RN number.
     
  20. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2012
    Messages:
    2,564
    Location:
    San Diego
    Still Model X reservations rate seems impressive for China with the limited data we have. 623 (2/26) - 351 (2/7) = 272 over 19 days = 14.3 per day x 365 = 5,225 annual run rate. Not bad for the X this early on. This makes me think perhaps S reservations are already at a 15-25k annual run rate (purely wild guess though).

    I wonder if we could gather China RN numbers for Model S and try to make sense of them. Does anybody know if they are completely random or not?
     

Share This Page