Tesla lease vs purchase

[essmd]

I've written off lease payments for business purposes and generally, yes, it does make sense. The Hummer loophole, if qualified, is an amazing tax advantage. It's actually better than a $25k deduction, it ends up being worth much more than that.

It makes more sense to lease the 90D, 100D, and P100D. I'll contend that the 75D has not lost much value in the past year - as long as it wasn't fully optioned out. Because of this, it would cost more to lease a X75D regardless if you write off lease payments.

After 1 year:
Purchase: $90k for MX75D (AP1, leather, 6 seat) Any other options will be pure depreciation. From what I've seen, the value with 15k miles is about $75-80k. Depreciation for 1 year: $2,500-7,500 (when factoring in the $7,500 credit) This argument does NOT factor in sales/use taxes paid. This also doesn't factor in the increased cost of the X75D - the same specs with AP2 is now $98k new.

Lease: $1,200/month + $7k down. In one year, you just spent $21,400.

After 3 years:
Purchase: $17,500-22,500 loss in three years (when factoring the $7,500 credit). ~ $6,500/year. I'm estimating a value of $60-65k in 3 years - it may be higher if you have AP2 with FSD. IMHO, the MX will retain its value and be worth incrementally higher than a comparable MS. A 2014 S85 w/ 36k miles averages $45-50k at dealer auction - a little higher as Tesla CPO. That car was cheaper than a X75D.

Lease: Over $50k in three years. $21,400 for the first year; in the next two years $28,800 = $50k. You walk away, zero equity, no risk.

I also think that in three years, when the tax credit goes away, the cars will increase in value by a little (not the full $7,500, perhaps $2,500). All my opinions based on MS values... FWIW.

Awesome response, thanks for your expertise as I do not claim to have that for this issue, just amateur presumptions.

I do suspect that resale values for HW2 will be steady providing there is no new hardware change and that EAP and FSD functionality is positive and moving forward, even if FSD is not yet fully approved.

In my opinion, HW1 vehicles took a major hit in resale value (my MX90D of at least $30K or more) just with the announcement and delivery of HW2. In addition to the nausea I felt, I realized that perhaps a lease may be of value given the tech advancements, if which Tesla keeps the announcement very tight and not associated with a model year change, like all others do.

 

[Dr Doom]

I've written off lease payments for business purposes and generally, yes, it does make sense. The Hummer loophole, if qualified, is an amazing tax advantage. It's actually better than a $25k deduction, it ends up being worth much more than that.

It makes more sense to lease the 90D, 100D, and P100D. I'll contend that the 75D has not lost much value in the past year - as long as it wasn't fully optioned out. Because of this, it would cost more to lease a X75D regardless if you write off lease payments.

After 1 year:
Purchase: $90k for MX75D (AP1, leather, 6 seat) Any other options will be pure depreciation. From what I've seen, the value with 15k miles is about $75-80k. Depreciation for 1 year: $2,500-7,500 (when factoring in the $7,500 credit) This argument does NOT factor in sales/use taxes paid. This also doesn't factor in the increased cost of the X75D - the same specs with AP2 is now $98k new.

Lease: $1,200/month + $7k down. In one year, you just spent $21,400.

After 3 years:
Purchase: $17,500-22,500 loss in three years (when factoring the $7,500 credit). ~ $6,500/year. I'm estimating a value of $60-65k in 3 years - it may be higher if you have AP2 with FSD. IMHO, the MX will retain its value and be worth incrementally higher than a comparable MS. A 2014 S85 w/ 36k miles averages $45-50k at dealer auction - a little higher as Tesla CPO. That car was cheaper than a X75D.

Lease: Over $50k in three years. $21,400 for the first year; in the next two years $28,800 = $50k. You walk away, zero equity, no risk.

I also think that in three years, when the tax credit goes away, the cars will increase in value by a little (not the full $7,500, perhaps $2,500). All my opinions based on MS values... FWIW.

one can also look at what you said with the lease- zero equity, no risk but you have nothing to show for in terms of the investment. you have spent 50,000 dollars on a car you don't own. if you choose to buy at the end of lease, you have to pay the remainder. and the initial 3 years, you have spent a good chunk of the 50,000 paying down interest and not the principal. versus if you started off with the loan, you would have an extremely attractive interest rate.