Tesla said it expects to sell between 50,000 and 55,000 Model S sedans and Model X SUVs this year, down from a previous target of 55,000.
That's not a reduce delivery forecast for the X; it's a possible reduced forecast for all cars. There was no mix given (in the letter anyway) of which cars might be in the possible shortfall.
While our equipment installation and final testing of Model X is going well, there are many dependencies that could influence our Q4 production and deliveries. We are still testing the ability of many suppliers to deliver high quality production parts in quantities sufficient to meet our planned production ramp. Since production ramps rapidly late in Q4, a one-week push out of this ramp due to an issue at even a single supplier could reduce Model X production by approximately 800 units for the quarter. Furthermore, since Model S and Model X are produced on the same general assembly line, Model X production challenges could slow Model S production. Simply put, in a choice between a great product or hitting quarterly numbers, we will take the former. To build longterm value, our first priority always has been, and still is, to deliver great cars.
If Tesla can even meet 800 per week in Q4, and half of those are Model X cars, then Tesla could deliver 4,800 Model X units before the end of the current year (plus whatever token amount is produced in Q3).
Elon just said they're planning of having a factory capacity of up to 1000 Models S and X for 2000 total (next year). He said actual production numbers will fluctuate and depend on many factors.
Tesla is already producing more cars than that.
The shareholder letter indicates a ramp-up to 800 Xs per week in late Q4.
Still seems like wishful thinking to me, but I obviously hope I'm wrong. And "late Q4" could mean December 20th!
I am sure he much more worried about supplier quality since the SpaceX accident...Biggest issue Elon seemed to be concerned about was the number of high quality parts their suppliers could provide to the plant. If even one part is in short supply it can slow down production of the entire line.