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Tesla market share of BEVs in NSW
- Thread starter Vostok
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- perth service centers
The RMS stats are for vehicle registrations not sales but it’s a good proxy.
There were 17,657 vehicles added to the fleet in NSW in Q2, so BEV was an impressive 7.5% of that. “Vehicles” though includes everything - motorcycles, vans, trucks of all kinds, buses, people movers, off-road vehicles, etc. (but not trailers) so the percentage would be diluted since few BEVs exist in many of those categories.
If we restrict the calculation to just passenger vehicles, there were 7630 PVs added in Q2 and 1262 of these were BEVs, so that increases the proportion to 16.5% or 1 in 6 passenger vehicles.
Those numbers seem extraordinarily high, but that’s what the RMS data says.
NSW will abolish stamp duty on all BEVs when they are 30% of sales - but for the detail of how that will be calculated we have to wait to see the legislation, and the NSW Parliament will not sit again until October. At the current rate of growth, that could happen as soon as 2023.
Actually, I’ve decided that the RMS registration stats are not useful for calculating BEVs as a percentage of sales.
That’s because registration data is a view of the entire fleet, so it shows the net of additions (A) and removals (B). “A” would be the proxy for sales, but we only know from the RMS stats “A-B”, we don’t know “A” or “B” separately.
“B” would comprise vehicles with lapsed registration, removed from the pool (written-off post-crash or transferred interstate), and I expect the occasional data cleansing exercise.
Looking back through the quarters, “B” must be a large not a small number, so that will inflate the apparent proportion of BEVs as a percentage of “sales”. There have in fact been quarters where B > A, because there are quarters where the fleet or individual categories shrunk in size. The data appears to be quite noisy quarter-to-quarter.
It will be interesting to see how the NSW legislation calculates BEV as a percentage of sales, because Tesla does not report its sales figures, and clearly they can’t ignore Tesla. So if it is based on registration data, they will need more granular data than what is provided publicly to accurately calculate it.
That’s because registration data is a view of the entire fleet, so it shows the net of additions (A) and removals (B). “A” would be the proxy for sales, but we only know from the RMS stats “A-B”, we don’t know “A” or “B” separately.
“B” would comprise vehicles with lapsed registration, removed from the pool (written-off post-crash or transferred interstate), and I expect the occasional data cleansing exercise.
Looking back through the quarters, “B” must be a large not a small number, so that will inflate the apparent proportion of BEVs as a percentage of “sales”. There have in fact been quarters where B > A, because there are quarters where the fleet or individual categories shrunk in size. The data appears to be quite noisy quarter-to-quarter.
It will be interesting to see how the NSW legislation calculates BEV as a percentage of sales, because Tesla does not report its sales figures, and clearly they can’t ignore Tesla. So if it is based on registration data, they will need more granular data than what is provided publicly to accurately calculate it.
Well, yes, but as shown above, registrations ≠ sales. They might be very close in this case, but close enough isn’t necessarily good enough. And some manufacturers muddy the waters with having different drivetrain variants of the same model, which registration data might not properly reveal.
The Government could simply make it law for all manufacturers to report their sales data to government quarterly, properly broken down between BEV and non-BEV, for the purpose of making this calculation.
baillies
Member
If you scroll down NSW also publishes new registration data which is a much closer proxy for sales. Tesla is 1545 of 98314 light vehicle sales ~1.6% YTD 2021. Almost the same as Lexus at 1549. BEV‘S are at 2220 or 2.3%
The RMS stats for Q3 are out...
NSW now has, for the first time, over 10,000 BEVs registered in the state!
Records in every category:
Here's the updated chart, with Y-axis increased to 20,000 to keep things stable for a few more quarters...
And thanks to @baillies, I scrolled down on the RMS stats page and have collated the new vehicle registration data to produce the chart below, showing BEVs as a percentage of all new vehicles registered in NSW on a year-by-year basis. It has skyrocketed over the last 3 years, and in 2021 to date, is sitting at 2.94%:
NSW now has, for the first time, over 10,000 BEVs registered in the state!
Records in every category:
- 1528 BEVs added to the fleet - a record
- 1034 Teslas added to the fleet - a record, and the first time more than 1000 have been added in a quarter
- 494 non-Teslas added to the fleet - a record
- Tesla BEV fleet market share of 61.3% - a record
Here's the updated chart, with Y-axis increased to 20,000 to keep things stable for a few more quarters...
And thanks to @baillies, I scrolled down on the RMS stats page and have collated the new vehicle registration data to produce the chart below, showing BEVs as a percentage of all new vehicles registered in NSW on a year-by-year basis. It has skyrocketed over the last 3 years, and in 2021 to date, is sitting at 2.94%:
Hopefully this means Tesla starts to notice AUS and build more superchargers
Well I think they are building more, aren’t they?
Wiki - Supercharger - Australian Index
NOT a discussion thread. See the individual threads linked below OR Superchargers in Australia Possible locations for future Superchargers Open (525 stalls, 89 sites)(👐 253 stalls, 43 sites) 👐 Open access for non-Tesla vehicles 🏛️ Government funding attached ⌚ Time-Of-Day pricing applies 📶...
teslamotorsclub.com
Although to put NSW in perspective… last quarter‘s Tesla deliveries here are about half a day’s worth of global production.
If Tesla delays Kirrawee much longer, there won’t have been a single new Supercharger in NSW during 2021. And 2020 wasn’t exactly a stellar year either.Well I think they are building more, aren’t they?
Wiki - Supercharger - Australian Index
NOT a discussion thread. See the individual threads linked below OR Superchargers in Australia Possible locations for future Superchargers Open (525 stalls, 89 sites)(👐 253 stalls, 43 sites) 👐 Open access for non-Tesla vehicles 🏛️ Government funding attached ⌚ Time-Of-Day pricing applies 📶...
Although to put NSW in perspective… last quarter‘s Tesla deliveries here are about half a day’s worth of global production.
I doubt it's Tesla delaying that site, given the status of the works it looks a lot more like the electricity distributor doing so.
The Q4 2021 NSW registration statistics were finally released today. I have a new format that calculates the stats automatically so that I can get them to you faster 
.
BEVs have hit a new record of 4.0% of all passenger vehicle registrations in the quarter. Charts to come…
Total BEVs (all vehicles): 11829 (+1803 or 18.0%)
Total BEV passenger vehicles: 10392 (+1638 or 18.7%)
Total Teslas: 7237 (+1093 or 17.8%)
Total non-Tesla BEVs: 4592 (+710 or 18.3%)
Tesla market share of BEV fleet: 61.2%
Tesla market share of BEV passenger vehicles: 69.6%
Tesla incremental market share for this quarter: 60.6%
For the full year 2021, BEVs represented 3.01% of all new passenger vehicle registrations in NSW.
. BEVs have hit a new record of 4.0% of all passenger vehicle registrations in the quarter. Charts to come…
NSW Battery EV statistics for Q4, 2021
BEV fleet statistics
(and change from previous quarter)Total BEVs (all vehicles): 11829 (+1803 or 18.0%)
Total BEV passenger vehicles: 10392 (+1638 or 18.7%)
Tesla statistics
(and change from previous quarter)Total Teslas: 7237 (+1093 or 17.8%)
Total non-Tesla BEVs: 4592 (+710 or 18.3%)
Tesla market share of BEV fleet: 61.2%
Tesla market share of BEV passenger vehicles: 69.6%
Tesla incremental market share for this quarter: 60.6%
BEVs as percentage of all new passenger vehicle registrations
4.00%
(previous quarter 2.71%)For the full year 2021, BEVs represented 3.01% of all new passenger vehicle registrations in NSW.
Based on the cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past 5 years, 30% of all new sales in NSW would be BEV by the end of 2025.
I think the biggest risk to that is global supply limitations. Australia gets a desultory number of BEV allocations from all manufacturers apart from Tesla, and that is throttling growth. I think more people want to buy them than can buy them. Only the most dedicated will wait 1-2 years for one.
Well, that used the be the narrative for Tesla until about 2017 - that Tesla was soon to satisfy all the demand that there was out there, because it was inherently limited, so sales were about to fall off a cliff. Not once has that proved to be correct.
Apple fundamentally changed the price-point at which people were willing to spend on a mobile phone. People mocked Apple in 2007, saying almost no-one would want to spend $750 on a phone when they can buy one for $150. Now people routinely spend $2000 on a phone.
Same with flat-screen TVs. No-on in their right mind used to spend $1000 on a TV in the early 2000s, but then went and spent $20,000 to get a flat-screen one. Even later that decade, people were still spending $5000 to get one, ten times more than they ever used to spend on a TV.
Sure cars are more expensive than that so the capacity to stretch the budget is not the same, but don't think that for the next few years people will not be prepared to spend way more than they ever have previously to buy an EV. I know I did.
