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Tesla Master Plan: GM got there first

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Well GM still can change its mind.
If they rolled out Bolt worldwide and promoted it, they could win.
But I don't think they want. Arguably they're not making money on Bolt directly, but rather using it for the ZEV credit generation, the definition of a compliance car.

Shipping Bolts to non-ZEV credit countries, and building over 1,000 just for internal GM use alone has got to be the stupidest move ever done by a company.

But this was the same stupid company that took the Government seriously when they demanded automakers make EVs or die. It cost them a billion just to learn that politicians lie like rugs. The other companies laughed and stuck a battery in an economy car with 50mi of range an 60mph top speed.
 
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I'm not sure that Tesla is in competition with the Bolt. What is the bolts' competition in Tesla?

So if there is no competition....then how can anyone win or lose?

Cross shopping the Bolt and the Model 3 is like cross shopping the Chevy Sonic and Malibu. How many people are trying to decide between those two cars? Most people considering a Malibu are going to be looking at other sedans in the same size range.

The real competition for the Bolt is the Leaf, and other small EVs. The competition for the Model 3 are other family sedans like the Camry, Malibu, Fusion, Accord, etc. Teslas appeal to people who have no interest in other EVs while the Bolt is the longest range and newest in the EV ghetto.

Outside of the world of electric cars and the core of the car media, there is little buzz about the Bolt. It's just another low volume production electric car. Tesla and the Model 3 are big news outside of that world. I've run into a number of people who know all about the Model 3 coming, but have either never heard of or just know a little bit about the Bolt.

Tesla is the rock star, the other EVs are small time bands doing gigs in pubs for beer money.

Well GM still can change its mind.
If they rolled out Bolt worldwide and promoted it, they could win.
But I don't think they want. Arguably they're not making money on Bolt directly, but rather using it for the ZEV credit generation, the definition of a compliance car.

They can't build enough of them to be anything more than a compliance car. The battery supply is not there to do it.
 
Cross shopping the Bolt and the Model 3 is like cross shopping the Chevy Sonic and Malibu. How many people are trying to decide between those two cars? Most people considering a Malibu are going to be looking at other sedans in the same size range.

The real competition for the Bolt is the Leaf, and other small EVs. The competition for the Model 3 are other family sedans like the Camry, Malibu, Fusion, Accord, etc. Teslas appeal to people who have no interest in other EVs while the Bolt is the longest range and newest in the EV ghetto.

Outside of the world of electric cars and the core of the car media, there is little buzz about the Bolt. It's just another low volume production electric car. Tesla and the Model 3 are big news outside of that world. I've run into a number of people who know all about the Model 3 coming, but have either never heard of or just know a little bit about the Bolt.

Tesla is the rock star, the other EVs are small time bands doing gigs in pubs for beer money.



They can't build enough of them to be anything more than a compliance car. The battery supply is not there to do it.
Hmmmmm.. Sounds like you are saying what I'm saying. Right?

The "like" button is easier to use.
 
That's not how I actually road trip in my Bolt EV. I'm not doing repeated cycles of 30 minute charging sessions.

The reality is that people want to stop and eat every 4-5 hours. From a full overnight charge I follow a pattern like:

Drive ~165 miles
* Charge for 30 minutes, coffee & bathroom
Drive for ~75 miles
* Charge for 60 minutes, eat lunch
Drive for ~125 miles
* Charge for 30 minutes, coffee & bathroom
Drive for ~75 miles

Distance driven 440 miles
I'm on a new road trip from SF to LA so here is another real-world Bolt EV data point.

I left the house yesterday at 10am thinking I would charge after 170 miles in Madera off CA-99. I ended up there with 88 miles of remaining range even though I was driving at or above the flow of traffic often at 65-70 mph. So, I decided to drop my speed slightly to 60-65 mph and stretch to downtown Visalia where I arrived after 229.4 miles on the road at around 2pm with another 28 miles of estimated remaining range. I got there in just under 4 hours of driving and stopped once at Starbucks along the way for a coffee and bathroom break. Traffic was generally free flowing with only minor sections of congestion and with lanes filled with traffic driving at the speed limit.

I had a nice lunch at a microbrewery in Visalia and resumed driving after an hour of charging with 165 miles added to the estimated range. I found a nice couple taking a photo of my car at the charger and chatted with them for a few minutes. They turned out to be former EV-1 drivers who now belong to the Electric Auto Assoc. in Sacramento. I then drove 87 miles to Bakersfield at 75 mph and stopped for a 30 minute charge at the Walmart and got a frappaccino at the Starbucks there.

After that I drove to downtown Pasadena arriving with about 50 miles remaining and had an excellent dinner at an Italian restaurant while plugged in at L2 at a parking garage with 90 minutes of free parking and charging. I actually crossed into the "LA area" from the I-5 grapevine at around 6:30pm or about 8 and a half hours after leaving SF and got to Pasadena a little after 7pm.

Having overstayed my free parking time by another 30-40 minutes, I paid my $2 fee and headed off to my overnight destination another 40 miles away which was somewhat downhill so I arrived with ~100 miles of remaining miles with a 37% battery state of charge. Today I'm hanging around town visiting relatives and then going to another part of LA on Friday for the weekend.

It's been a very pleasant and easy trip again so far. Total drive yesterday was 454.2 miles with 107.6 kWh from the battery for 4.2 miles per kWh or 237 Wh per mile. Average trip speed while driving was around 60 mph including city streets and minor congestion. Temperatures were very mild (70-75F) through the Central Valley so I didn't use much A/C. It should be warmer on the way back home in a few days.
 
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It sort of reinforces the idea that GM might have filed conservative data with the EPA. EPA target range normally occurs at 60-65 mph for most cars. MPG for ICE, ditto.

Sidebar - Waymo (Google) has teamed with Lyft (GM) to develop autonomous technologies for the Bolt and other GM products. Waymo has successfully petitioned the court to force Uber to return the 14,000 engineering files stolen by a Waymo engineer.

So there is a solid chance now that the Bolt EV will be the first autonomous vehicle for commercial use, or personal use.
 
It sort of reinforces the idea that GM might have filed conservative data with the EPA. EPA target range normally occurs at 60-65 mph for most cars. MPG for ICE, ditto.

Sidebar - Waymo (Google) has teamed with Lyft (GM) to develop autonomous technologies for the Bolt and other GM products. Waymo has successfully petitioned the court to force Uber to return the 14,000 engineering files stolen by a Waymo engineer.

So there is a solid chance now that the Bolt EV will be the first autonomous vehicle for commercial use, or personal use.
So far as I know....GM isn't going to make enough of them. Isn't there a cap on the number of Bolts being made?
 
So far as I know....GM isn't going to make enough of them. Isn't there a cap on the number of Bolts being made?

It depends on who you ask. If you ask Teslarati, Elon, or similar sources, there is serious battery shortage at GM.
If you ask GM, or Chevrolet Korea, or LG Chem, they will be able to meet the actual demand for the car.

The most likely scenario, is with under 1% of US vehicle sales being EVs or PHEV's, maximum public demand in the US will probably be 30,000 tops. More like 20k would be my bet. Estimated demand for fleet/Maven/Lyft and CTF cars though is still a closely guarded secret. All GM will say is 'thousands'.

It is perhaps the first car that was designed from the ground up to be an autonomy platform for commercial use.
 
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A friend of mine got a Bolt recently. It's a very nice car. The big flaw is that local dealers are only being given 3 of them each this year.

That isn't going to revolutionize anything. Tesla is building a mass market car; the Bolt is anything but.

Allocations are based on past performance. One dealer might not a get a single Corvette, and another might get 70 Corvettes.

If your customer satisfaction surveys are weak, and your segment sales are poor, you are not getting sportscars or EVs. Why ship them to dealerships who can't move them?
 
Allocations are based on past performance. One dealer might not a get a single Corvette, and another might get 70 Corvettes.

If your customer satisfaction surveys are weak, and your segment sales are poor, you are not getting sportscars or EVs. Why ship them to dealerships who can't move them?

GM Canada is miserly with these things. None of the local dealers get more than a dozen Vettes. Until very recently the C7 was almost impossible to get locally unless you reserved one a year in advance.

That doesn't mean the dealer can't sell Bolts. I happened to be talking to the manager of one of the local dealers just as a Bolt drove off the lot - their first. Of three. He wistfully said he wished he could get a lot more of them.
 
I'm on a new road trip from SF to LA so here is another real-world Bolt EV data point.

I left the house yesterday at 10am thinking I would charge after 170 miles in Madera off CA-99. I ended up there with 88 miles of remaining range even though I was driving at or above the flow of traffic often at 65-70 mph. So, I decided to drop my speed slightly to 60-65 mph and stretch to downtown Visalia where I arrived after 229.4 miles on the road at around 2pm with another 28 miles of estimated remaining range. I got there in just under 4 hours of driving and stopped once at Starbucks along the way for a coffee and bathroom break. Traffic was generally free flowing with only minor sections of congestion and with lanes filled with traffic driving at the speed limit.

I had a nice lunch at a microbrewery in Visalia and resumed driving after an hour of charging with 165 miles added to the estimated range. I found a nice couple taking a photo of my car at the charger and chatted with them for a few minutes. They turned out to be former EV-1 drivers who now belong to the Electric Auto Assoc. in Sacramento. I then drove 87 miles to Bakersfield at 75 mph and stopped for a 30 minute charge at the Walmart and got a frappaccino at the Starbucks there.

After that I drove to downtown Pasadena arriving with about 50 miles remaining and had an excellent dinner at an Italian restaurant while plugged in at L2 at a parking garage with 90 minutes of free parking and charging. I actually crossed into the "LA area" from the I-5 grapevine at around 6:30pm or about 8 and a half hours after leaving SF and got to Pasadena a little after 7pm.

Having overstayed my free parking time by another 30-40 minutes, I paid my $2 fee and headed off to my overnight destination another 40 miles away which was somewhat downhill so I arrived with ~100 miles of remaining miles with a 37% battery state of charge. Today I'm hanging around town visiting relatives and then going to another part of LA on Friday for the weekend.

It's been a very pleasant and easy trip again so far. Total drive yesterday was 454.2 miles with 107.6 kWh from the battery for 4.2 miles per kWh or 237 Wh per mile. Average trip speed while driving was around 60 mph including city streets and minor congestion. Temperatures were very mild (70-75F) through the Central Valley so I didn't use much A/C. It should be warmer on the way back home in a few days.

Haven't taken my Bolt on a long drive yet, but the range is better than expected. Currently I have over 275 miles on a charge and may get another 25. This is mixed city/highway 2% battery usage for A/C. Normal driving. Compare to lifetime average of 290 watts/mile on my Model S 75D
 
Tesla again confirmed today that the Model 3, when first shipping, will have a range of 215+ miles. That's Tesla miles, which we know is optimistic. It appears that GM miles are pessimistic - people routinely get more than 238 miles from the Bolts on long trips.

This forum can whine all it wants about the Bolt being a compliance car, but that is completely irrelevant if you are in the market to buy a car. The Bolt is a honest to goodness long range, inexpensive EV available today.

GM, like Han Solo, got there first :)
 
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Tesla again confirmed today that the Model 3, when first shipping, will have a range of 215+ miles. That's Tesla miles, which we know is optimistic. It appears that GM miles are pessimistic - people routinely get more than 238 miles from the Bolts on long trips.

This forum can whine all it wants about the Bolt being a compliance car, but that is completely irrelevant if you are in the market to buy a car. The Bolt is a honest to goodness long range, inexpensive EV available today.

GM, like Han Solo, got there first :)

Ran my Bolt on one charge and got 300 miles. That was mixed driving city hwy with 2% AC running
 
Tesla again confirmed today that the Model 3, when first shipping, will have a range of 215+ miles. That's Tesla miles, which we know is optimistic. It appears that GM miles are pessimistic - people routinely get more than 238 miles from the Bolts on long trips.

This forum can whine all it wants about the Bolt being a compliance car, but that is completely irrelevant if you are in the market to buy a car. The Bolt is a honest to goodness long range, inexpensive EV available today.

GM, like Han Solo, got there first :)

Again, you don't need 238 miles for a commuter car...and you don't need more than 215 miles when the SC network exists.

*Drops mic
 
This forum can whine all it wants about the Bolt being a compliance car, but that is completely irrelevant if you are in the market to buy a car. The Bolt is a honest to goodness long range, inexpensive EV available today.

GM, like Han Solo, got there first :)

I've never brought up the "compliance" issue because frankly, it is irrelevant.

The Bolt isn't long range for my purposes, because it's effective real-world highway range is 190 miles @ 75 MPH (per Car and Driver's standard test), AND its charge rate is too slow for convenience. IF the Bolt had Supercharger-level network support, I would agree that GM got there first. But the reality is that GM did not develop or deploy such a network.

YMMV. It works well for Jeff N, who is ok with a slower pace of travel. This won't be ok for the vast majority of people I know. A Tesla with Supercharging is a lot closer to "no compromises" than a Bolt.
 
YMMV. It works well for Jeff N, who is ok with a slower pace of travel. This won't be ok for the vast majority of people I know. A Tesla with Supercharging is a lot closer to "no compromises" than a Bolt.
Google maps says driving from SF to Pasadena should take 6 hours via I-5. I can do it today on CA-99 in 8-9 hours depending upon traffic which includes 2 stops and a total of 1.5 hours of charging time. I have no doubt that driving a Model S 75 with Supercharger stops would typically be a bit quicker.

I'm just saying the difference is not tragic for the occasional road trip. I just got back from making that trip yesterday and it was totally fine. No waiting for charging stalls. Almost no "wasted time" twiddling my thumbs waiting for charging to complete. I enjoyed the drive. While driving down the traffic was a little heavier so speeds were mostly 65-70 mph until I got beyond Bakersfield and then I could go 75 mph. On my trip back I was able to drive 75 mph on CA-99 and other highways for the large majority of the time.

My total round trip, including 3 days of driving around LA visiting relatives, came out to 1,100 miles at an average of just under 250 Wh per mile from the battery. Temperatures were very mild on the way down but I had the A/C blasting the entire time on the return side with temperatures in the 90F's.
 
I've never brought up the "compliance" issue because frankly, it is irrelevant.

The Bolt isn't long range for my purposes, because it's effective real-world highway range is 190 miles @ 75 MPH (per Car and Driver's standard test), AND its charge rate is too slow for convenience. IF the Bolt had Supercharger-level network support, I would agree that GM got there first. But the reality is that GM did not develop or deploy such a network.

YMMV. It works well for Jeff N, who is ok with a slower pace of travel. This won't be ok for the vast majority of people I know. A Tesla with Supercharging is a lot closer to "no compromises" than a Bolt.

Why stop at 75? A ticket at 99 mph isn't much more. Just keep it under 100. And be very, very grateful.

I'm in the about the geographic center of Car Central. Most countries don't have as many cars as exist in Southern California. Certainly 20,000,000 if not more. Our days of datalogging at 6 am on the 15 freeway deep into the triple digits is long, long, gone. With the State Funding of radar, and the 100=2pt law, speeding for hours at a time is a bit stupid if you have a real driver's license or are a citizen.

I have a customer loop I do. It's ~70 miles. 91 Freeway, to 55 Freeway, to 5 Freeway, to 405 Freeway, to 55 Freeway, to 91 Freeway.

Average speed? Freeway Only 22 mph to 47 mph. Peak speed, 80+ mph possible. Lowest speed 0 mph for up to 3 minutes at a time. 1 hr to cover 10 miles is not a totally freak occurrence. You'll see it about monthly.

On electricity? Typically between 200-250 Wh/mi depending.

I constantly see Teslas here, and pretty much every kind of EV. Even the new Revero in zebra camo. I don't see Teslas blasting down the freeways. In fact, they tend to stay pretty close to the posted speeds. In fact, EVs don't tend to speed here anymore than other cars, probably a lot less. There simply is nowhere go. Blast up to 90, then slow down to a stop, and pulse along at 3-30 mph for a few miles, then blast up to 90, rinse and repeat.

The 101 is particularly a comedy act. In the MIDDLE OF FREAKIN NOWHERE, the traffic is stopped. No idea why. The 5 does that too right as you start the Grapevine outta LA.

TLDR: If you want to drive 75 everywhere you go, STAY OUT OF CALIFORNIA or buy a time machine.
 
Why stop at 75? A ticket at 99 mph isn't much more. Just keep it under 100. And be very, very grateful.

I'm in the about the geographic center of Car Central.

TLDR: If you want to drive 75 everywhere you go, STAY OUT OF CALIFORNIA or buy a time machine.

Honestly, I'm tired of people from the coasts behaving like everything is centered on the way they live. This kind of pervasive attitude I encounter on the Internet and in real life is extremely off putting. Frankly, it's a big reason Donald Trump won the election and why his supporters tolerate his behavior: they are tired of people acting like the rest of America doesn't exist.

The Bolt may work for you, and it works for Jeff N, but there are large swaths of America where it won't work. Until GM sells a car that can work as well as an ICE car nearly everywhere, they haven't gotten to Tesla's goal. It's that simple.