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Tesla Master Plan Part 2 & 3

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I'm all for an all in one load balanced solar power package, though I want to stay connected to the grid so long as the grid will have me. In fact, my license plate is ON GRID.

I still think full autonomy is a pipe dream. It will likely definitely happen for highways and maybe a select few special areas, but I don't see it getting much beyond that in the next 30 years. There are just too many things an autonomous car cannot handle. Good example -- a police officer directing traffic. Lets see an autonomous car handle that. Won't happen. That said, keep working on it. The better it gets, the better it gets. But don't be surprised when I come back here in 30 years and say "I told you so".

Also, no way in hell I would share my car.

Beyond that, I'm all in on everything else. Lets go. Take my money.

Side note: I find it curious that people seem to like the idea of socialized cars but at the same time want de-socialized power. Grass is greener?
 
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There are no center aisles on the electric trams at Universal Studio...
Or maybe replace the center aisle with a center bar? Would make public transit a lot more enticing to the populace here in the US. Plus, the passengers provide the "range extender" when the batteries run down.

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The "California disaster" as you refer to it (I don't buy that line of reasoning), is the direct result of NIMBY forces who believe that their personal interest (i.e. their house, their view, their neighborhood, their level of taxation, etc.) is more important than the greater good of the State of California and it's residents as a whole. The voters voted to make this happen in 2008, and the reason that it is so far behind schedule is that the NIMBY's have filed and continue to file endless lawsuits to the detriment of getting HSR actually built. Despite this, ground has been broken and there are thousands of people working on the project right now. Unemployment in Kern County has fallen from 17% in 2010 to less than 10% now. In spite of this, their local representatives continue to fight against the project. It's utterly unbelievable. Enough of this, for those interested please see Robert Cruickshank's excellent blog here:

California High Speed Rail Blog

With respect to any of SMP2 being an HSR killer, not the case. No part of the SMP2 will get you from L.A. to S.F. in less than 3 hours. The Tesla autonomous car (or whomever deploys it) will get you both the first and last mile (or more), with the HSR system doing the heavy lifting at high speed and high volume. Get the cars off the Interstate. HSR works everywhere it is deployed.

Those thinking that it "won't work here" just because "nobody rides trains" are living in a delusional world. Take your pick for moving 50,000,000 people around the state:
1. Build an HSR system
2. Expand the freeways to handle more traffic
3. Build more airports and expand the current ones

I'll leave it as an exercise for the poster to figure out which is the least expensive alternative for the worlds 7th largest economy ;)

RT

I'm not really interested in an argument on this. I respectfully disagree with your views, but I understand where you are coming from.
 
I'm all for an all in one load balanced solar power package, though I want to stay connected to the grid so long as the grid will have me. In fact, my license plate is ON GRID.

I still think full autonomy is a pipe dream. It will likely definitely happen for highways and maybe a select few special areas, but I don't see it getting much beyond that in the next 30 years. There are just too many things an autonomous car cannot handle. Good example -- a police officer directing traffic. Lets see an autonomous car handle that. Won't happen. That said, keep working on it. The better it gets, the better it gets. But don't be surprised when I come back here in 30 years and say "I told you so".

Also, no way in hell I would share my car. That's putting a lot of faith in strangers, and my lifetime of experience tells me that's bad policy. Plus, when I want my car, I want my car. I would really hate having to wait for it to return across town.

Beyond that, I'm all in on everything else. Lets go. Take my money.

Side note: I find it curious that people seem to like the idea of socialized cars but at the same time want de-socialized power. Grass is greener?

When there is real full autonomy, you won't need the police officer directing traffic.
 
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I don't see it with the present offerings from Tesla. Seems like every other thread here is about paint protection and owners fearful of stone chips and dings.

Perhaps someday in the future when companies like Tesla, Google, Apple make utilitarian passenger pods. Today's vehicles are so much more than transportation. Today's cars like the Model S, X are prestige, aspirational vehicles that serve the owner with more than just mere transportation.

Some people aren't interested in cars in anything but utility. Smooth plastic pods that can be hosed down between drivers will fit the bill for these folks.
 
I don't think the timing of this Part 2 was appropriate - and its clear it was to push for the financial purchase of SolarCity. Still don't think that's a good idea as Tesla is over extended in debt already and SC has a lot of short-term debt. They should integrate without the merger. It isn't THAT hard.

On the mass transit, that is WAY off, or at least design a bus/other than has batteries towards bottom and motors and provide those components. The rest of the vehicles don't make sense to produce. Just the platform piece at most. Rest of the vehicle can be left up to the builder. Do many people on here take buses or public transit? From time to time we do in Chicago and its typically nasty, and even on a battery driven bus it's going to be nasty, beat up, full of crazies & bums, so don't envision some fabulous electric mass transit machine - but at least one that efficient. And following any kind of autonomy in an urban city is going to require special lanes at this point that are enforce as you can't drive anywhere in a major urban city and not have to cross into other lanes ad-hoc, swerve, go over metal sheets for construction, etc. That is a LONG ways off.

Summoning a car also is a LONG way off as too many issues occur as it is in traffic, wrecks, etc. Lots of support services for crashed, broken down, accident involved autonomous cars will be needed first since owners/people wouldn't be there; however, will likely be responsible.

I give his 10 year plan a more realistic 30 years (if we haven't all killed each other by then)...


Let me introduce you to Ollie..if you truly believe that...



Autonomous public transport is already happening at a small level now.
 
Good example -- a police officer directing traffic. Let's see an autonomous car handle that.

It's actually a relatively simple matter to identify a police officer or construction worker in the road. Next you just have to identify the gestured motion and interpret the meaning (gesture capture has been in the works for years ). I don't see the example of a police officer directing traffic as an insurmountable obstacle taking several years.
As a matter of fact Toyota patented as method of doing this is 2014.
 
Interesting, Elon Musk's master plan is somewhat against Elon Musk's statement in Oslo, Norway. Maybe something made him to change his mind.

And there will be future cars that are even more affordable down the road. But, with something like the Model 3, it’s designed such that roughly half the people will be able to afford the car. Then, with fourth generation and smaller cars, we’ll ultimately be in the position where everyone will be able to afford the car

- Elon Musk in Future Transport Solutions conference in Oslo, Norway​


A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below
- Elon Musk in his master plan​


Elon Musk says Tesla’s next car will be even cheaper than the Model 3
 
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Let me introduce you to Ollie..if you truly believe that...



Autonomous public transport is already happening at a small level now.
Maybe you know the answer to this as I cannot seem to find it. They claim to not be using IBM watson for the self driving portion of Ollie, just for the user interaction portion.

What tech are they using for the self driving part? All I can find is it was developed by Local Motors (and tech partners), but who are the tech partners?
 
Awesome to finally see the next 10 years laid out.
Much of it expected as already discussed or at least hinted at publicly: Solar acquisition, compact SUV, full autonomy, high speed manufacturing, ride sharing, buses. The pickup was a nice surprise although certainly a no-brainer for the North American market. But the big rig bit really caught me off guard, very cool. I suspect the folks at Nikola will not be pleased.
I would like to have seen mention of future Model 3 variants, a coupe, wagon, convertible? Speaking of convertible, where's the next Roadster in all this? Maybe too niche for a Master Plan mention, but I sure hope it's got space allocated on a drawing board somewhere in there. And no mention of the underground volcanic lair. Maybe in Part Tres?
 
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Your view of what car ownership is today, probably won't mesh with the realities autonomous driving will afford in the future.

You're essentially saying that because you wouldn't want to spend time hauling strangers around in your personal vehicle, no business model could be built upon it. Well...
Well when you get your model 3 in and if its fully automous (I don't think it will) you send it to me and who knows, you may get it back as good as you gave it to me, or you may get it back with a giant stain form my large coke I spilled. Maybe a ripped seat. Possibly unwanted items still in the car if you catch my drift. or worse. Now would you want that to happen to your car you payed lots of money for? I know I would not, and I think a lot of people would agree.
 
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I don't see it with the present offerings from Tesla. Seems like every other thread here is about paint protection and owners fearful of stone chips and dings.

When the original secret master plan was published, Tesla was selling a single model, an expensive sports car. At that time, you probably said, "I don't see it with the present offerings from Tesla". Turns out you were wrong as Tesla has sold over 100,000 Model S and Model X and is well on their way to Model 3.

The timing might not be exactly as Elon hopes, but at this point I think Tesla is here to stay and is going to do some pretty spectacular things.
 
Interesting, Elon Musk's master plan is somewhat against Elon Musk's statement in Oslo, Norway. Maybe something made him to change his mind.

And there will be future cars that are even more affordable down the road. But, with something like the Model 3, it’s designed such that roughly half the people will be able to afford the car. Then, with fourth generation and smaller cars, we’ll ultimately be in the position where everyone will be able to afford the car

- Elon Musk in Future Transport Solutions conference in Oslo, Norway​


A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below
- Elon Musk in his master plan​


Elon Musk says Tesla’s next car will be even cheaper than the Model 3

Well, the car becomes more affordable in the used car market and as battery prices decline the Model 3 cost will naturally go down. However, he's saying that there's really not a compelling reason (at the moment) to build a cheaper car. At this moment in time such a car might have sacrifices which might give Tesla a bad name. When autonomous cars are a reality the cost of ownership if you're using your car like the plan describes could actually be nothing if there is a sufficient market.

Additionally, I expect used Model 3s to quite affordable when they start hitting the used market.
 
Interesting, Elon Musk's master plan is somewhat against Elon Musk's statement in Oslo, Norway. Maybe something made him to change his mind.

And there will be future cars that are even more affordable down the road. But, with something like the Model 3, it’s designed such that roughly half the people will be able to afford the car. Then, with fourth generation and smaller cars, we’ll ultimately be in the position where everyone will be able to afford the car

- Elon Musk in Future Transport Solutions conference in Oslo, Norway​


A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below
- Elon Musk in his master plan​


Elon Musk says Tesla’s next car will be even cheaper than the Model 3
Yeah, I immediately thought of the Oslo statement too when I read this. I think he's underestimating how many people will still want to own their own car for the next decade or two at least, and a still sizable number for a long time after that.