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Tesla Master Plan Part 2 & 3

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Well when you get your model 3 in and if its fully automous (I don't think it will) you send it to me and who knows, you may get it back as good as you gave it to me, or you may get it back with a giant stain form my large coke I spilled. Maybe a ripped seat. Possibly unwanted items still in the car if you catch my drift. or worse. Now would you want that to happen to your car you payed lots of money for? I know I would not, and I think a lot of people would agree.

Well, the Model 3 wouldn't be capable of such...and wouldn't have been bought with that in mind. Again, the issue is an inability to look outside of the ownership box that exists today.
 
Maybe you know the answer to this as I cannot seem to find it. They claim to not be using IBM watson for the self driving portion of Ollie, just for the user interaction portion.

What tech are they using for the self driving part? All I can find is it was developed by Local Motors (and tech partners), but who are the tech partners?


I wondered about that too Jeff. I just don't know.

I have a friend in Miami that told me he saw a billboard that read "Ollie - coming soon to pick you up".

Guess they're expanding....
 
The first master plan that I wrote 10 years ago is now in the final stages of completion. It wasn't all that complicated and basically consisted of:

  1. Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive
  2. Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price
  3. Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car
    And...
  4. Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.
The reason we had to start off with step 1 was that it was all I could afford to do with what I made from PayPal. I thought our chances of success were so low that I didn't want to risk anyone's funds in the beginning but my own. The list of successful car company startups is short. As of 2016, the number of American car companies that haven't gone bankrupt is a grand total of two: Ford and Tesla. Starting a car company is idiotic and an electric car company is idiocy squared.

Also, a low volume car means a much smaller, simpler factory, albeit with most things done by hand. Without economies of scale, anything we built would be expensive, whether it was an economy sedan or a sports car. While at least some people would be prepared to pay a high price for a sports car, no one was going to pay $100k for an electric Honda Civic, no matter how cool it looked.

Part of the reason I wrote the first master plan was to defend against the inevitable attacks Tesla would face accusing us of just caring about making cars for rich people, implying that we felt there was a shortage of sports car companies or some other bizarre rationale. Unfortunately, the blog didn't stop countless attack articles on exactly these grounds, so it pretty much completely failed that objective.

However, the main reason was to explain how our actions fit into a larger picture, so that they would seem less random. The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good. That's what "sustainable" means. It's not some silly, hippy thing -- it matters for everyone.

By definition, we must at some point achieve a sustainable energy economy or we will run out of fossil fuels to burn and civilization will collapse. Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better.

Here is what we plan to do to make that day come sooner:

Integrate Energy Generation and Storage
Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world. One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app.

We can't do this well if Tesla and SolarCity are different companies, which is why we need to combine and break down the barriers inherent to being separate companies. That they are separate at all, despite similar origins and pursuit of the same overarching goal of sustainable energy, is largely an accident of history. Now that Tesla is ready to scale Powerwall and SolarCity is ready to provide highly differentiated solar, the time has come to bring them together.

Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport
Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.

What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.

In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.

With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.

Autonomy
As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.

Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.

I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.

According to the recently released 2015 NHTSA report, automotive fatalities increased by 8% to one death every 89 million miles. Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number and the system gets better every day. It would no more make sense to disable Tesla's Autopilot, as some have called for, than it would to disable autopilot in aircraft, after which our system is named.

It is also important to explain why we refer to Autopilot as "beta". This is not beta software in any normal sense of the word. Every release goes through extensive internal validation before it reaches any customers. It is called beta in order to decrease complacency and indicate that it will continue to improve (Autopilot is always off by default). Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.

Sharing
When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.

You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.

In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.

So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
 
Yeah, I immediately thought of the Oslo statement too when I read this. I think he's underestimating how many people will still want to own their own car for the next decade or two at least, and a still sizable number for a long time after that.

If the Model 3 is self-driving and you Uber it out when you are not using it, then the cost of ownership is reduced to the point that virtually everyone can afford a Model 3. No need to build a cheaper car.
 
So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

Well, there it is. He saved the bombshell for last. It's been speculated about, but he just came out and finally said it, as it's really nothing but (extra) software and a database once they've reached full autonomy. Wonder if the markets will be buzzing tomorrow...
Surprising he hinted that cheaper than the Model 3 isn't necessary, as it should happen anyway due to constantly falling battery prices.

More information on the Autonomous fleet
Tesla plans a ‘shared autonomous fleet’ for owners to make money off their car
 
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Interesting, Elon Musk's master plan is somewhat against Elon Musk's statement in Oslo, Norway. Maybe something made him to change his mind.

And there will be future cars that are even more affordable down the road. But, with something like the Model 3, it’s designed such that roughly half the people will be able to afford the car. Then, with fourth generation and smaller cars, we’ll ultimately be in the position where everyone will be able to afford the car

- Elon Musk in Future Transport Solutions conference in Oslo, Norway​


A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below
- Elon Musk in his master plan​


Elon Musk says Tesla’s next car will be even cheaper than the Model 3

I think that Elon is beginning to recognize that Tesla will be able to sell a Model 3 for $26,000.
If that is true, additionally, "a lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary."
 
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Their truck uses natural gas so it's a little different than something Tesla might come up with (hopefully fully electric).
You are indeed correct... when I read the original press on it I was under the impression it plug-in charge capable with the turbine taking over once the battery was depleted. Looks like it's not, so their calling it an "electric truck" is pretty misleading, it's a just a plain old hybrid. But even so if their figures are correct it's a pretty good improvement over old school diesel. I'll be really curious to see what Tesla's cooking up though. And how will they be fed? A whole new network of big-rig Supercharging stations? Or are they going to use battery swap? Might make sense for commercial operations on that scale.
 
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If the Model 3 is self-driving and you Uber it out when you are not using it, then the cost of ownership is reduced to the point that virtually everyone can afford a Model 3. No need to build a cheaper car.
That is until there's a saturation point with so many on the road... (you won't be guaranteed to make significant funds anymore). Although, even one or two fares a day might offset the monthly payments a bit.

I'm not seeing "more" information than what's in the plan itself.
 
If the Model 3 is self-driving and you Uber it out when you are not using it, then the cost of ownership is reduced to the point that virtually everyone can afford a Model 3. No need to build a cheaper car.
The economics of that are certainly true, but I wonder how many people would want to do it in practice. I'd be curious to see a poll as to what percentage of folks would be willing to let their second most valuable possession loose in the public domain. I know I would be very leery of doing so, for many of the reasons expressed by others here as in fear of damage, unavailability of the car when I need it, etc.
 
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The economics of that are certainly true, but I wonder how many people would want to do it in practice. I'd be curious to see a poll as to what percentage of folks would be willing to let their second most valuable possession loose in the public domain. I know I would be very leery of doing so, for many of the reasons expressed by others here as in fear of damage, unavailability of the car when I need it, etc.
Oder damage is hard to deal with.
 
You are indeed correct... when I read the original press on it I was under the impression it plug-in charge capable with the turbine taking over once the battery was depleted. Looks like it's not, so their calling it an "electric truck" is pretty misleading, it's a just a plain old hybrid. But even so if their figures are correct it's a pretty good improvement over old school diesel. I'll be really curious to see what Tesla's cooking up though. And how will they be fed? A whole new network of big-rig Supercharging stations? Or are they going to use battery swap? Might make sense for commercial operations on that scale.

I'm thinking that the Tesla transport will be a Hybird that uses CNG. The Nikola has a 320 kWh battery just for immediate release storage. To get 500 miles range a Model X would take around 250 kWh of battery. A transport would take probably 1500 to 2000kWh; how long would that take to charge? How much would it weight/how much space would it take up?
 
On board with everything except the silly ride-share concept. Would make more sense to sell fleets of vehicles to companies that will provide a service. I really don't think private owners will loan out their personal cars.

First reason - people are pigs. Rental car mentality.

Need vehicle right now. Yeah, I might only use my car 10% of the day but it's tough to predict exactly when I will need it and it's not worth waiting for some bozo to return when I need to go to the pet hospital right away.

Think college kids with no car.

Think urban commuters with no car.

There are plenty of both right now. Tesla doesn't have to convince you to let others ride in your car. They just have to make enough cars to cover you and those other groups.

There will still be single owner, single car situations for decades to come. No one will force you to change in the next few years.
 
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On board with everything except the silly ride-share concept. Would make more sense to sell fleets of vehicles to companies that will provide a service. I really don't think private owners will loan out their personal cars.

First reason - people are pigs. Rental car mentality.

Need vehicle right now. Yeah, I might only use my car 10% of the day but it's tough to predict exactly when I will need it and it's not worth waiting for some bozo to return when I need to go to the pet hospital right away.
Totally agree with you that the "share my car with strangers for extra change" idea is stillborn. Also still think the Solar City bailout is a bad idea -- not that adding solar to the company is necessarily a bad idea. It's only a bad idea if the plan to add this particular solar company is mostly a favor to Solar City shareholders at the expense of Tesla investors.
 
I'm thinking that the Tesla transport will be a Hybird that uses CNG. The Nikola has a 320 kWh battery just for immediate release storage. To get 500 miles range a Model X would take around 250 kWh of battery. A transport would take probably 1500 to 2000kWh; how long would that take to charge? How much would it weight/how much space would it take up?
I'm not sure how you got your Model X range figure, as the current 90D is rated for 260 miles on 90kWh, so 180kWh should get you past 500. Agreed though that a big rig battery would be verrrry substantial. Maybe it would need to be integrated into the trailer chassis? I'm sure it could be just as quickly charged as a current Tesla car battery as long as there was enough power available at the charging station, which I'm picturing would be much more substantial than the current Superchargers.