Tesla Model 3 Fully Autonomous ?

[Topher]

So the computer is going to know where my sprinkler head in the ground? Where my septic tank is so I don't crush it? I COULD GO ON AND ON, please don't act like you can tell a computer everything

Why would you want to make yourself look that ridiculous? You know where your septic tank is (presumably), the only thing preventing you from telling the computer is your ineptitude, not the computer's.

For the most part, telling computers things is already out of our hands. The vast majority of computer knowledge comes from other computers. They know more than all of us could ever learn in our combined lifetimes.

And why go through this? So to back up in my yard I'm going to have to spend thousands of dollars and time programming by back yard into the computer when I can do it just as good, if not better myself?

Wow. You aren't writing the code, you are telling the computer either where to drive, or what to avoid. Go look at google maps, put a pin on your septic, and a pin on your wood pile. Better yet, don't; Get a six year old to do it for you. Or heck, put a cardboard box over them!

An rc car? Really? Yes the inputs might be simple but your basically saying that you can program a off-road truck. I don't think so.

Personally, yes, I could program an off-road truck, but I am experienced in embedded systems. But you don't need to (nor I, for that matter), you just need to drive it remotely. Go watch this:

So we can program the unlimited different parking spots and garages and barns and any other place you can park it?

Cars already identify parking spaces. Every bit of road in the US is already 'programmed' in. We call this google maps. If you have some additional parking information about your piece of property, just get that six year old to enter them into google maps. Done.

Thank you kindly.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Why would you want to make yourself look that ridiculous? You know where your septic tank is (presumably), the only thing preventing you from telling the computer is your ineptitude, not the computer's.

For the most part, telling computers things is already out of our hands. The vast majority of computer knowledge comes from other computers. They know more than all of us could ever learn in our combined lifetimes.

Wow. You aren't writing the code, you are telling the computer either where to drive, or what to avoid. Go look at google maps, put a pin on your septic, and a pin on your wood pile. Better yet, don't; Get a six year old to do it for you. Or heck, put a cardboard box over them!

Personally, yes, I could program an off-road truck, but I am experienced in embedded systems. But you don't need to (nor I, for that matter), you just need to drive it remotely. Go watch this:

Cars already identify parking spaces. Every bit of road in the US is already 'programmed' in. We call this google maps. If you have some additional parking information about your piece of property, just get that six year old to enter them into google maps. Done.

Thank you kindly.

Actually location accuracy is non-trivial when it gets down to the higher accuracy requirements. GPS currently is only accurate to 3 meters. The rest is made up by the sensor suite using points of reference (for example it can tell where traffic lights and intersections are located to correct any errors). However, GPS doesn't work indoors and in an empty field outside, there might not be any reference points to refer to. I did a research project on indoor location tracking, and it is not an easy problem to solve (would need all kinds of sensors and emitters installed in the location and you have to do an indoor map, which satellites won't be able to do for you).

The typical way I suspect it will be done for indoor parking structures is by putting markings on the floor. An outdoor garage (or a simple attached garage) can still be handled mostly by GPS by getting the car right outside the garage door and then using the car sensors to park the car for the short inside portion.

 

[Topher]

Actually location accuracy is non-trivial when it gets down to the higher accuracy requirements. GPS currently is only accurate to 3 meters. The rest is made up by the sensor suite using points of reference (for example it can tell where traffic lights and intersections are located to correct any errors). However, GPS doesn't work indoors and in an empty field outside, there might not be any reference points to refer to.

When I need to have humans drive in the right places with no reference points, I put up retro-reflectors. Why are people unwilling to do this for computers?

Thank you kindly.

 

[stopcrazypp]

When I need to have humans drive in the right places with no reference points, I put up retro-reflectors. Why are people unwilling to do this for computers?

Thank you kindly.

It may be a generational thing. When we have a generation that has grown up with vehicles on the road with no steering/accelerator/braking controls, it may seem simpler to add those things to the environment. However, for people that have driven all their life, it just seems simpler to hop into the car and park it using the controls.

And it is not really those situations that matter, but rather there will be plenty of people that simply enjoy driving and want to have the option to do so when they choose.

 

[Topher]

And it is not really those situations that matter, but rather there will be plenty of people that simply enjoy driving and want to have the option to do so when they choose.

I have no problems with people who want to keep driving their horses. Just those who say that only horses will be able to do certain things, that cars need to be horse-compatible, or that 30,000 people need to die every year because they want to drive horses on the highway.

Thank you kindly.

 

[theboom1]

I have no problems with people who want to keep driving their horses. Just those who say that only horses will be able to do certain things, that cars need to be horse-compatible, or that 30,000 people need to die every year because they want to drive horses on the highway.

Thank you kindly.

There will be times were you can only get something done if you can control the vehicle especially in any timely manner, if you can't see that I can't help you as you don't have the life experience. Yes you could maybe get the computer to do the things I said, it won't be exact nor fast in any way.

Also as it has been pointed out many time you can eliminate the deaths and still let people drive, you just have the computer keeping things safe.

Thank you kindly.

 

[gregincal]

There will be times were you can only get something done if you can control the vehicle especially in any timely manner, if you can't see that I can't help you as you don't have the life experience. Yes you could maybe get the computer to do the things I said, it won't be exact nor fast in any way.

Also as it has been pointed out many time you can eliminate the deaths and still let people drive, you just have the computer keeping things safe.

Thank you kindly.

Yeah, because tasks that require good timing never use computers to control things. The current set of controls was actually not designed for the tasks you are talking about, they were designed for driving a car on roads. To say that there can't be a more efficient way and exact way to instruct the vehicle what you need it to do just because you are used to the current way displays a lack of imagination.

 

[theboom1]

Yeah, because tasks that require good timing never use computers to control things. The current set of controls was actually not designed for the tasks you are talking about, they were designed for driving a car on roads. To say that there can't be a more efficient way and exact way to instruct the vehicle what you need it to do just because you are used to the current way displays a lack of imagination.

Please do explain then. And don't say the computer will figure it out, it would have to be a fully self aware, decision making ai to cover all the variables. You have to be able to directly control it.

 

[SebastianR]

I guess they say "people overestimate the amount of change that will happen in the next 2-3 years and underestimate the amount of change for the next 10 years".

When I grew up, the farm of my grandmother had a tractor that could be controlled "remotely" so that nobody needed to sit inside while it went and the farmer could work alongside the machine. Granted, it was a very primitive "remote" control (basically you could adjust the accelerator, slam the break, and - but don't quote me on that - adjust the steering all from the outside of the vehicle). The reason they had that was that at that point in time - think 40-50 years back - harvester and hay raking machines were not perfect around the edges of a field. So that was a way to get the work done, rake a bit by hand if need by and be "where the action was happening" rather than in the cabin on the tractor.

Anyways, I believe something like that would be fantastic if you want to launch a boat, load some machine, attach a trailer, navigate into a really complicated/tight space. I have seen in it in my lifetime, I pretty convinced, I will see it again. Only for that remote to be my smartphone. Don't ask me if we will lose the steering wheel in the next 20 years. I can't say. But it sure will be useless 99% of the time. I would say if Apple made cars, we would lose it. But then again, the car industry is leaning on tradition like no other industry, so I kindda doubt we will see too many changes.

 

[gregincal]

Please do explain then. And don't say the computer will figure it out, it would have to be a fully self aware, decision making ai to cover all the variables. You have to be able to directly control it.

So lets see. Having no domain knowledge if I can't figure out a solution in 10 minutes than experts will not be able to figure out something over the next 20 years. Are you really that convinced that no better way to guide a computer controlled vehicle could possibly exist than the steering wheel?

 

[Topher]

There will be times were you can only get something done if you can control the vehicle especially in any timely manner, if you can't see that I can't help you as you don't have the life experience. Yes you could maybe get the computer to do the things I said, it won't be exact nor fast in any way.

You don't seem to have the computer experience to understand that you are just wrong. A computer could never beat a human at chess. oops. A computer could never win Jeopardy. oops. You haven't mentioned a single thing that is even remotely hard for computers to do. I do note that you have given up on actual examples, probably for the best, given that you previous ones are all already being done. If you drove a GM car made between roughly 91 and 95, then you drove a car containing software that I wrote. Computer are far more exact and far faster for most things a car needs to do. The hardest thing you haven't even hit on yet. Following a path is piece of cake easy.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Topher]

Please do explain then. And don't say the computer will figure it out, it would have to be a fully self aware, decision making ai to cover all the variables. You have to be able to directly control it.

Please don't use computer jargon that you obviously don't understand. Go ahead, list the variables. You have no idea what you are talking about. 'self aware'

Thank you kindly.

 

[ttupper92618]

Just for some added color, here, Musk had some things to say about this during the results call with investors. With respect to the issue of allowing manual operation, he was pretty clear:

Tesla will argue for autonomous driving, but not argue against manual driving. Freedom is important. If people want to drive a manual car, they should be allowed to drive it.

Also, he indicated that in order for regulators to be comfortable approving fully autonomous modes, Tesla will need billions of miles of safety data. So, that should temper expectations a bit.

 

[JeffK]

There's an article today regarding GM working with Lyft for a fleet of autonomous cars... (with a lyft driver just in case).

Here's to hoping Tesla beats them to the punch.

 

[brianman]

There's an article today regarding GM working with Lyft for a fleet of autonomous cars... (with a lyft driver just in case).

Terrifying.

 

[ttupper92618]

There's an article today regarding GM working with Lyft for a fleet of autonomous cars... (with a lyft driver just in case).

Here's to hoping Tesla beats them to the punch.

I think this exemplifies how brutal the race for autonomy is going to get. Everyone is going to go at this with abandon, because they all sense that a massive change is coming in how we use cars. Ford is trying to become a mobility company. GM wants to build autonomous Taxis. Startups like Faraday Future are looking into ride-sharing and on-demand services (probably similar to Ford). The point is that they all sense that this technology may fundamentally alter the automotive industry, and none of them want to get left behind. So, if anything, I think we will see even more effort funneled int efforts like the GM / Lyft collaboration in years to come.

My initial response was less thoughtful. It was "Gee, great - now we all get to be taxied around in a butt-ugly, unimaginative box." ;-)

 

[theboom1]

Please don't use computer jargon that you obviously don't understand. Go ahead, list the variables. You have no idea what you are talking about. 'self aware'

Thank you kindly.

I know all the variables that can happen and I know you can't do everything.

So your suggestion is have it so if you need to do something with your truck you can control it like a rc car? That could MAYBE work. What if you need to control it while in the truck? Like if you were on a rough path and you need to travel a small distance or if you don't want to walk behind it?

How about when your on the road in cars or in trucks? Would you want to still have the steering wheel or only control it with the remote while your sitting in the seat? Like being able to enjoy your sports car? As I said the computer can keep it safe and mitigate traffic when needed.

 

[theboom1]

My initial response was less thoughtful. It was "Gee, great - now we all get to be taxied around in a butt-ugly, unimaginative box." ;-)

THAT is my biggest nightmare but I think that other in big city centers, most people will want to still want to own their cars. I know I would.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I live 4 miles from the commuter rail station, and parking is $8/day.....

I look forward to a day where....I can have my Tesla drop me off at the morning, and return to my driveway during the day. Then, every afternoon, when I'm a stop or 2 away, "summoning" my Model 3 to come pick me up for the 4 mile ride home.

 

[Topher]

I know all the variables that can happen and I know you can't do everything

But decline to list them....

So your suggestion is have it so if you need to do something with your truck you can control it like a rc car? That could MAYBE work. What if you need to control it while in the truck? Like if you were on a rough path and you need to travel a small distance or if you don't want to walk behind it?

So sit in the truck. Duh. Are you under the impression that RC cars don't work from within a truck?

Thank you kindly.