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Tesla Model 3 is fundamentally changing the company

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This is how I am and many Americans, no matter what purchase price your vehicle is. Getting the best "deal" is how a lot of people shop, hence why Amazon is so prevalent. Convenience is only half the battle.

What I despise doing is trying to "justify" my reasoning. I like to have a monetary reward for my reasoning, which is going to the cheapest gas station.

If Tesla is truly after the $35,000 market, it is a hard sell when you have to be inconvenienced on your road trip AND spend just as much money to fuel as ICE. The issue isn't that 90% of our driving is local, but that the 10% you do need it you are compromising and having to go out of your way most the time to charge a Tesla. Doesn't sit well when there are very nice hybrids that are now cheaper to operate per mile than the Tesla (32-40MPG for RAV4 Hybrid). Roughly 5-6 cents per mile to operate on low end. Tesla is 7 cents minimum now.


You keep trying to compare a slow boxy SUV with poor handling to a performance sedan with great handling, on the basis of pennies.

That doesn't really seem like what I'd call "reasoning"

Especially when it ignores the Tesla is much cheaper to operate when NOT on road trips- which is most of the time for most people.
 
You keep trying to compare a slow boxy SUV with poor handling to a performance sedan with great handling, on the basis of pennies.

That doesn't really seem like what I'd call "reasoning"

Especially when it ignores the Tesla is much cheaper to operate when NOT on road trips- which is most of the time for most people.

Some people (like my wife) treat their vehicles like appliances. No more emotion put into it than buying a washing machine.
It just has to do the job for X amount of money.
And that is the market the cheaper Tesla will compete in.
 
You keep trying to compare a slow boxy SUV with poor handling to a performance sedan with great handling, on the basis of pennies.

That doesn't really seem like what I'd call "reasoning"

Especially when it ignores the Tesla is much cheaper to operate when NOT on road trips- which is most of the time for most people.

It would be different If I bought a 100k model s/x.

I bought the car to save money on road trips and business traveling. While yes, negating oil changes, it is still slightly cheaper. BUT one supercharging stop is equal to 10 gas station fill ups.

Tesla is not going after the high end crowd anymore folks...They are trying to target the penny pinchers at 35k
 
Tesla is not going after the high end crowd anymore folks...They are trying to target the penny pinchers at 35k

And this may well be a flawed strategy. The reality is that at least in my short ownership experience (since 12/28/18), Tesla behaves much more like a boutique provider of high-end cars than a mass market company. They just do not have the infrastructure in place (either bricks and mortar, human capital or management / operating structure) to address the doubling in the number of their cars that are on the road over the past year -- let alone the growth they say that they hope to achieve. Will they get there? Let's all hope so, but adding infrastructure to support the ownership experience costs a LOT of money -- and there sure is not a lot of it to spare selling $35,000 cars compared to $60,000 ones...
 
If Tesla is truly after the $35,000 market, it is a hard sell when you have to be inconvenienced on your road trip AND spend just as much money to fuel as ICE.

Tesla is after a SEGMENT of this market. The market for a $35,000 vehicle is not at all uniform. There are trucks, SUV's, crossovers, Hybrids and (hopefully) full EV's all in that price range. So, for you a Tesla just might not be the right car as from what you have said there is no perceived additional value between your Tesla and a RAV 4 Hybrid. Having driven in a RAV 4 Hybrid, I would have different feelings about the value proposition and would have no issue paying more to drive my Tesla, but that is a decision that we each get to make.

What I completely agree with you on is that Tesla has changed the calculus mid-stream by significantly increasing the price for Supercharging. They used those costs as comparisons in selling the economic value of their cars only to radically change them on folks who had already purchased a Tesla and that is a really terrible way to build brand loyalty.
 
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Math using new supercharging rates is downright ugly.

The new rate in Chicago is 0.34/kWh, up from 0.24/kWh in fall '18, and 0.12/kWh in summer '18.

Last weekend I went on a short 350 mile roadtrip to Michigan where regular fuel was between $1.65 and $1.95 - we will use $1.80 for the sake of this discussion. In cold climates the M3 will achieve 160-200 miles on a full charge, meaning roughly 2 full charges are needed to drive 350 miles at a whopping total cost of $51. AN EQUIVALENT ICE VEHICLE WOULD NEED TO ACHIEVE 12.4 MPG TO SPEND THE SAME ON FUEL AS A RWD LR MODEL 3 OVER THE COURSE OF 350 MILES ($1.80/GAL)

Overnight the cost of fueling a Tesla changed from one of the least expensive cars on the road to one of the most expensive cars on the road. Regardless of performance, there's no way a 2018 Accord Hybrid (48 mpg) should cost 3.85x less in fuel/energy than a Tesla.

This sums up my frustrations - last weekend my friend and I concluded it would cost less in fuel to take his Tahoe rather than my Model 3.
 
From my personal experience, Tesla is walking a very fine line of what could be considered deceptive business practices and sales tactics.

I live in a condo in downtown Chicago without access to at home charging. I park in an indoor garage where an at home charger isn't suitable.

Earlier this year I began searching for a new vehicle or way to get to work - I drive 60 miles/day and needed something efficient such as a hybrid or EV rather than flushing my money down the toilet in the form of gasoline. Performance is not a concern considering I spend 90% of my time under 20mph sitting in traffic.

I reviewed and test drove a number of hybrid vehicles before my curiosity led me to Tesla. I scheduled a test drive and spoke with a Sales Adviser dozens of times throughout August and September. I voiced my only concern of no at-home-charging a number of times. My Sales Adviser sold me on the fact that superchargers are in convenient locations for me nearby home and I could charge a 300 mile range for $9-$10 (0.12/kWh). This was the tipping point for me as I was spending $350-600/month on gasoline. I ordered the car. Between date of order and date of delivery the cost of supercharging increased from 0.12/kWh to 0.24/kWh. At this point EV is still marginally cheaper than ICE, but they are dangerously close in cost causing my to question my purchase. The most recent increase to 0.34/kWh means my new car which I expected to spend 1/2 to 1/3 on fuel will cost 1.25-2x more than my previous ICE vehicle.

Another increase and the vehicle is downright impractical when I could drive almost any other car on the market for less money.

I'm happy with my car and have no problem affording it.

On the other hand I am very displeased with Tesla. I (along with many others) planned on driving this car for 5-10 years while spending a lot less on fuel than it would cost to drive a comparable ICE vehicle. I've owned this car for 2 months (1.6% of 10 years) and it already cost more to fuel than my inefficient ICE vehicle! I guess I can't call my ICE vehicle inefficient any longer...
 
Some people (like my wife) treat their vehicles like appliances. No more emotion put into it than buying a washing machine.
It just has to do the job for X amount of money.
And that is the market the cheaper Tesla will compete in.

It really isn't.

Those people are buying a Yaris, or Fit, or Accent- or some other $15,000 car (if they're buying new at all).

Or a corolla or civic for under 20k.

I dunno where people get this insane idea 35k is "entry level" for a new car.


It would be different If I bought a 100k model s/x.

Why?

I bought the car to save money on road trips and business traveling.

Then it's really weird you'd buy a $50,000 Tesla instead of a used Prius for 10k (or even a new one for 25k)

And if you WERE going to buy a Tesla anyway (for SOME reason) and the MAIN reason to buy it was saving fuel cost on road trips and business travel, then it's extra weird you wouldn't have grabbed one while FUSC was still available.

You don't appear to have put nearly enough research into your purchase.

Tesla is not going after the high end crowd anymore folks...They are trying to target the penny pinchers at 35k

Again not sure what fantasy land you're in where 35k is "penny pincher" land.

Who do you think buys all the $15,000 new cars? or the $25,000 ones? homeless people?


Math using new supercharging rates is downright ugly.

The new rate in Chicago is 0.34/kWh, up from 0.24/kWh in fall '18, and 0.12/kWh in summer '18.

Last weekend I went on a short 350 mile roadtrip to Michigan where regular fuel was between $1.65 and $1.95 - we will use $1.80 for the sake of this discussion. In cold climates the M3 will achieve 160-200 miles on a full charge, meaning roughly 2 full charges are needed to drive 350 miles at a whopping total cost of $51.


So there's 2 problems with your math.

First- you only need ONE charge during the trip. The first charge was done at home before you left, right?

Chicago averages .156 per kwh for home electricity.

So the actual cost is $37.2 (assuming you get the worst possible loss from weather... it gets cheaper if you are nearer 200 miles on a "tank")

And of course in the summer you're looking at making almost the entire trip on your home charge.

300 miles at home, and 50 at the supercharger, gets you to $13.65 for the whole trip with the Tesla.




AN EQUIVALENT ICE VEHICLE WOULD NEED TO ACHIEVE 12.4 MPG TO SPEND THE SAME ON FUEL AS A RWD LR MODEL 3 OVER THE COURSE OF 350 MILES ($1.80/GAL)

Nope.

At $37.2 (worst case math in the worst of winter) you're talking 20.6 gallons at $1.80 a gallon... best case at $13.65 you can only buy 7.58 gallons with what you spent on electricity.

Going 350 miles on 7.58 gallons would require making over 46 mpg.

And of course gas prices are higher in the summer, so it gets even worse for the ICE vehicle.


Overnight the cost of fueling a Tesla changed from one of the least expensive cars on the road to one of the most expensive cars on the road. Regardless of performance, there's no way a 2018 Accord Hybrid (48 mpg) should cost 3.85x less in fuel/energy than a Tesla.


Except, again, the vast majority of most peoples driving is not roadtrips

When you're driving locally you are paying (in chicago, on average) $11.70 to "fill" a model 3 battery from zero to full.

And getting about 300 miles (probably a bit better given it's a LR RWD).

You could buy 6.5 gallons of gas (if the car takes regular) for that, at 1.80 a gallon

Which is roughly comparable to that Accord hybrid- but a lot quicker and better handling on top of it, not to mention the superior driver assist offerings.


And of course those who go to time of day billing so they can charge when electricity is cheaper can often save 5-10 TIMES that on rates- which really makes any ICE look insanely more expensive in normal use.
 
It really isn't.

Those people are buying a Yaris, or Fit, or Accent- or some other $15,000 car (if they're buying new at all).

Or a corolla or civic for under 20k.

I dunno where people get this insane idea 35k is "entry level" for a new car.




Why?



Then it's really weird you'd buy a $50,000 Tesla instead of a used Prius for 10k (or even a new one for 25k)

And if you WERE going to buy a Tesla anyway (for SOME reason) and the MAIN reason to buy it was saving fuel cost on road trips and business travel, then it's extra weird you wouldn't have grabbed one while FUSC was still available.

You don't appear to have put nearly enough research into your purchase.



Again not sure what fantasy land you're in where 35k is "penny pincher" land.

Who do you think buys all the $15,000 new cars? or the $25,000 ones? homeless people?





So there's 2 problems with your math.

First- you only need ONE charge during the trip. The first charge was done at home before you left, right?

Chicago averages .156 per kwh for home electricity.

So the actual cost is $37.2 (assuming you get the worst possible loss from weather... it gets cheaper if you are nearer 200 miles on a "tank")

And of course in the summer you're looking at making almost the entire trip on your home charge.

300 miles at home, and 50 at the supercharger, gets you to $13.65 for the whole trip with the Tesla.






Nope.

At $37.2 (worst case math in the worst of winter) you're talking 20.6 gallons at $1.80 a gallon... best case at $13.65 you can only buy 7.58 gallons with what you spent on electricity.

Going 350 miles on 7.58 gallons would require making over 46 mpg.

And of course gas prices are higher in the summer, so it gets even worse for the ICE vehicle.





Except, again, the vast majority of most peoples driving is not roadtrips

When you're driving locally you are paying (in chicago, on average) $11.70 to "fill" a model 3 battery from zero to full.

And getting about 300 miles (probably a bit better given it's a LR RWD).

You could buy 6.5 gallons of gas (if the car takes regular) for that, at 1.80 a gallon

Which is roughly comparable to that Accord hybrid- but a lot quicker and better handling on top of it, not to mention the superior driver assist offerings.


And of course those who go to time of day billing so they can charge when electricity is cheaper can often save 5-10 TIMES that on rates- which really makes any ICE look insanely more expensive in normal use.
Your remarks are very condescending. If you had read my entire post you would have seen the paragraph where I made the following remark that my entire comment is based on:


“I live in a condo in downtown Chicago without access to at home charging. I park in an indoor garage where an at home charger isn't suitable.”

Please don’t be so narrow minded and understand that 80% of our country lives in an urban environment. Many of these residents are young, outgoing and make enough money to afford a M3. What is also common amongst this 80% of our country’s population is living in a multi unit building that does not and will not have access to a charger in the shared garage for whatever reason.

Take into account that myself along with many of your peers living in urban environments outside of California will not have access to at home charging and reconsider your math. Interesting how things change when you read the entire comment.
 
Your remarks are very condescending.

I'm sorry you find facts condescending

Please don’t be so narrow minded and understand that 80% of our country lives in an urban environment.

Yes. Mostly in houses

In fact over 70% of the entire country lives in houses (70-what percent depends if you count things like mobile homes as houses)

Apartment dwellers are only about 20% of the US population according to the ACS (from the US Census Bureau)


Many of these residents are young, outgoing and make enough money to afford a M3. What is also common amongst this 80% of our country’s population is

They are imaginary- since the real world numbers are the opposite of your claim.

living in a multi unit building that does not and will not have access to a charger in the shared garage for whatever reason.

Yes, that 20% of the population may have difficultly.

Though- again, the # in real life is even lower, as at least SOME of that 20% DO have access to chargers at home be it garages that some apt. complexes offer residents, or public chargers some complexes have installed. Some more will have access to chargers at work that they can use in lieu of a home charger.

So the % of americans for whom SCs are the ONLY real option is quite the minority. Maybe 10%? 15 tops.

But let's pretend for a second -all- that 20% simply can't own a Tesla at these SC prices (which is also nonsense, math wise but let's go with it).

That means of the ~17 million cars sold each year Tesla can ONLY target 80% of that audience. Or about 12.6 million cars.

Teslas max output in the US is 500,000 cars in a year.

I think they'll be ok.


Interesting how things change when you read the entire comment.


or when you don't base your comments on fake statistics like claiming 80% of the US lives in shared housing.


Here's some sourcing for #s BTW, lest you try and argue your #s any further-
New Census Data Show Differences Between Urban and Rural Populations

US Census data said:
Adults in rural areas were also more likely to live in single-family homes (78.3 percent compared with 64.6 percent)

Hence why the national average is around 70-something percent.
 
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I'm sorry you find facts condescending



Yes. Mostly in houses

In fact over 70% of the entire country lives in houses (70-what percent depends if you count things like mobile homes as houses)

Apartment dwellers are only about 20% of the US population according to the ACS (from the US Census Bureau)




They are imaginary- since the real world numbers are the opposite of your claim.



Yes, that 20% of the population may have difficultly.

Though- again, the # in real life is even lower, as at least SOME of that 20% DO have access to chargers at home be it garages that some apt. complexes offer residents, or public chargers some complexes have installed. Some more will have access to chargers at work that they can use in lieu of a home charger.

So the % of americans for whom SCs are the ONLY real option is quite the minority. Maybe 10%? 15 tops.

But let's pretend for a second -all- that 20% simply can't own a Tesla at these SC prices (which is also nonsense, math wise but let's go with it).

That means of the ~17 million cars sold each year Tesla can ONLY target 80% of that audience. Or about 12.6 million cars.

Teslas max output in the US is 500,000 cars in a year.

I think they'll be ok.





or when you don't base your comments on fake statistics like claiming 80% of the US lives in shared housing.


Here's some sourcing for #s BTW, lest you try and argue your #s any further-
New Census Data Show Differences Between Urban and Rural Populations



Hence why the national average is around 70-something percent.

80% of the population could buy if they had home charging?
Maybe in the U.S, but not Canada. The average wage is about 50k a year. The cheapest Model 3 is over 70K.
 
If you can sell all you make, what matters is that you sustain that by making products that a sufficiently large market segment wants to buy, and you make at a per unit profit. So far, mission accomplished for Tesla. There’s no point in a $35k car until there’s profit in it, and Musk knows that. That’s why the Y might be out before $35k 3. Sure, he will keep talking about it... to reserve mindshare among $35k buyers. And, given what Tesla is learning about downmarket expectations, they’d be wise to hold off until their infrastructure matures. There are plenty of $45k 3 and Y buyers out there.

PS I get a real kick out of members who post about what they would or would not buy and project it to market. The market speaks for itself. Sure, sedans are a dead market. Wait a sec... a mid sized sedan became the best selling luxury car in US. Hey, I predict the Y outsells Subaru competitors by a multiple too! Maybe the car itself matters more than the shape of it?
 
80% of the population could buy if they had home charging?
Maybe in the U.S, but not Canada. The average wage is about 50k a year. The cheapest Model 3 is over 70K.


So, obviously I was speaking of the US- since that was the discussion and stats I cited.

Second- the topic was access to home charging and that, specifically, being a barrier to EV ownership- with the other guy falsely claiming 80% of the population doesn't have access to it- when the real # is almost the reverse of that.

Point being the vast majority of people in the US have the ability to charge at home (for free at 110v at least, or at 240 with relatively minor cost)

Meaning for the vast majority of Americans, far far far far more people than Tesla can make enough cars to sell them cars, access to home charging is available and NOT a barrier to owning an EV.



Now- looking at the same question in Canada- we find the majority there ALSO live in single family homes- rather than big apartment buildings. Though it's a smaller majority than in the US... (and since Canada is being fed from the same MFG plant as the US it means there's more potential customers there too than Tesla can build cars, by a wide margin).