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Discussion in 'Model 3' started by vortexz, Feb 20, 2016.
In what KW packs do you think the M3 will be available and under what specs ?
personally i think there will be 60,70,80 Kwh options. The Tesla Model S will surly see a large upgrade by the time the Model III comes out. With economics of scales 100Kwh battery is likely to become the base battery for the Model S. With a larger battery the Model S will get larger range and more performance. In short why would you buy the Model S if the Model III gives you the same performance and more range. The base Model S will have to have more range, more performance, and more features than the Model III. I expect the base Model S to have 300+ miles of range and 4.4 0-60 by the time the Model S comes out.
I'm guessing 50 and 70 (lines up nicely to the 70 and 90 options of the S/X)
my guess is 50 kw pack with 225 miles and 70kw pack with 315 miles
It will have a lot more mileage than the Model S because of much better efficiency
(1) As many have mentioned before, there are many people who prefer a smaller car, even if they can afford an S (*raises hand*)
(2) Performance is more than just 0-60. All else being equal, a smaller, lighter car will handle and stop better than a larger, heavier one.
50 and 70, Model S/X by then will have 90 and 110.
With the Chevy Bolt shipping this year with at 60KW, The Model 3 will have to have at least that. My Guess is a 70KW and they wouldn't say at the march event just over 225 Miles. Then Model S in the fall of 2017 will get 80KW and 100KW packs.
I would say you're probably 10 kWh too optimistic on the model S capacities at that time. I would expect something more like 80 kWh and 100 kWh, but I digress. Anyway, assuming there are 2 options for the model 3, we can expect anywhere from 45-60 kWh for the lower end model and 65-80 kWh for the higher end one. I think 50 kWh and 70 kWh is a very reasonable guess though.
Whatever the actual capacities are, I am going to guess they will be badged 60 and 80, to avoid overlap with the Model S.
I'm guessing they will use the same battery modules as S and X. Those are the 300mm x 680mm ones, and S (and I imagine X) have them "across" - the longer dimension going sideways. With the S width being 1964mm, that works out to 604mm spent on the "overhang" (I don't have good name for this) plus the single space between the modules.
Turn those modules, so that the longer dimension is going lengthwise. You can fit four modules across, add extra spaces between them, keep a similar "overhang" and you end up with something very close to 1811mm that is the BMW 3er width (4x 300 + 604 = 1804, but that doesn't account for the two extra spaces between the modules.)
It would make 100% sense to reuse the same battery modules, but chances are they will have to arrange them differently, or the car will end up being too wide.
BMW 3er wheelbase is ~2810mm. Give something similar to Model 3, assume the same battery modules, now in a different orientation, and you can fit three full rows, plus two sideways, and end up with 14 battery modules, in the skateboard. Maybe you start piling up more elsewhere, but from the packing point of view, needing a shorter and narrower car, we're probably looking at dropping a few modules compared to Model S.
All based on completely unsubstantiated assumptions that the battery modules would be the same between the two cars.
But, if they are, we're talking about ~85-87% of the capacity of Model S, getting us to ~60kWh and close to 80kWh.
All math done with the back of the napkin approach of "2 + 2 = 3 for large enough values of 3"
I don't see how they can. JB has said several times the 3 will not use 18650 cells, but the next size up (20700? I forget...), to get better energy density. This means the modules have to change, since the cells are bigger.
My guess is 55 kWh and 75 kWh. I don't think that Tesla will have a pack that does less than 200 miles even in cold conditions.
I expect that S/X will be 75/80 and 95/100 at that point
Not necessarily. The Bolt is taller, boxier and less aerodynamically efficient than the Model S, and most likely the Model 3. Part of that added battery capacity was likely to overcome the higher drag. The Model 3 could conceivably offer comparable range with a smaller battery. I think most shoppers (even EV shoppers) care more about the total real-world range than the KWh rating of the battery. From a marketing standpoint, the Model 3 needs to at least match if not exceed the range of the Bolt. I expect them to be very different cars, but by virtue of the price point, it's inevitable that they're going to be compared.
I don't have a guess as to pack sizes, but I do believe that the low range option will be no less than the current 70D. Maybe better depending on advancements by then.
I've seen the same comments by JB Straubel and I agree.
I just don't see any way that Tesla will go with less than 60 kWh for the base and wouldn't be surprised if it was 70, as others have suggested. The goal will be at least 240 EPA to get a decent cold weather range. No way that happens with 50-55 kWh packs.
So, I'll guess 60 and 80 but wouldn't be surprised to see 70 and 90. By the time the 3 comes out the S will have transitioned to larger battery sizes to keep the distinction between the premium model and the mass market model.
I also predict that we won't find out for sure at the reveal next month and what we are told about range will be subject to change.
The size of the previous BMW 3 Series four door is an ideal size. Volt is more econobox size and shape.
I'm betting on 50 and 65.
A question like this should be a poll. Helps gather the data more clearly.
My money's on 60 and 80kWh packs. I'm hoping for 350 mile range at 55mph with moderate climate control.
I'm guessing 75 and 95. (By then the I suspect the Model S/X will be 90/110.)
S to go to 75, 95.