Tesla Model 3 P+ vs BMW M3?

[VCanucks]

Perhaps the Saleen version of the Model 3 will be the M3 destroying, track killing beast people seem to be craving. Personally I don't think Tesla would go down this route unless they come up with their own racing development team similar to AMG, M, SRT and the likes.

 

[Red Sage]

VCanucks: My feeling is that it would be the difference instead between an early 1990s Camaro Z28 (Tesla Model ☰) vs a Saleen Mustang (BMW M3). Always amazed me that people paid so much more for a Mustang that was still slower than a stock Camaro. Tesla Motors won't even have to make a track version of the Model ☰ to smoke the M3. The ordinary, everyday, street legal, stock, performance version of the car off the assembly line will reign supreme from day one.

 

[Tasdevil]

I hope you're right, but do you really expect Tesla to pass that savings on to the customer? I love Tesla, but I expect that the larger battery option is going to be +$10k no matter if it costs the company less than it does today, as that's what they've conditioned people to expect. That, and it's a GREAT way for them to make more profit on many of the cars.

Well if the s60 and s85 have the same battery but the s60 is software limited.
Either the s60 battery price is eating into the cars profits. Or the 10k to go from s60 to s85 is pure profit. (Minus supercharger access).
So it's actually quite hard to determine the new battery price.

 

[sigurdi]

Lowering the number of cells is not a good idea, with todays used ion cells.
The litium ion cells Tesla use have long life, but slow charge and discharge ability.
Lower number of cells gives less power to use and slower supercharging speed.
Just se at the S60 compared to the S85.
Battery development is a slow prosess. New cell type, chemistry, additives in the elocrolyte need time consuming testing, before mass production.

The first development of the capacity of the cells, will not show up on larger kWh in the cars.
They will start keeping the cells at 80% when the consumer think they have 100%, this will give cells with almost none parasictic reactions in the cell at "full"charge and a batterypack that lives longer than the car.
I prefere long life on the battery instead of large capascity.

One thing that can arive (Tesla patent) is a battery mix, litium ion cells for normal use, and a range extender with litium air battery.
Model 3 with 50kWh as base and 50kWh air battery, you can charge maybe 200 times when you need range extender.

sigurdi

 

[dsm363]

This whole thread has gotten wildly off topic with the P135 bit but that is highly unlikely especially at half the price of the Model S P85 today.

The P Model 3 likely will compete well with the M3. Will be exciting to see what Tesla does.

 

[Red Sage]

Well, the alternative would be to build a 'Supercar' such as the BMW i8... A car that can technically achieve a very fast 0-60 time... And a very decent 1/4 mile run... But only at a full charge, and only for two or three runs, before being 'limited' thereafter... I really don't think that is the strategy that Tesla Motors will employ.

 

[dsm363]

The Model 3 is their mass market car though.

They may very well build the a roadster off of the Model 3 platform. The P Model 3 could also even have similar performance to the P85 today but would expect the P One hundred something AWD+ Model S to be out by then and provide true track performance and better 0-60 time.

 

[Red Sage]

I really think it is a mistake to overlook the benefits of an electric drivetrain as compared to an ICE. I believe that all of the advantages than an ICE may currently enjoy over a BEV will gradually erode to nothingness. So I attempt to predict how the Tesla Model ☰ will combat its primary competition, the BMW 3-Series.

I have a lot of enthusiasm for, a firm faith in, and a lot of hope for Tesla Motors. I believe their goals are all attainable within a rather short time frame. Much sooner than Naysayers think, and way sooner than most hope.

My projections are for what I believe will be necessary to silence Naysayers, once and for all.

 

[Mavi57]

Is 4.2 sec, like the P85+ Model S fast enough? The I8 isn't a super EV, it's an hybrid with limited EV capacities. Nothing super about that.

 

[strider]

Is 4.2 sec, like the P85+ Model S fast enough? The I8 isn't a super EV, it's an hybrid with limited EV capacities. Nothing super about that.

Nope. I want a 3-second 0-60.

 

[wallet.dat]

Nope. I want a 3-second 0-60.

Same. I want to be able to beat a BMW M3/M4 in every category.

 

[Red Sage]

Price/Performance Ratio & Range Comparisons...

I kept wondering why people here kept saying that a Tesla Model ☰ Coupe such as the AWD P135+ variant I described would/should command a price tag in excess of $100,000... So. I stopped by the BMW website. I learned something very important to this discussion.

There is no longer any such thing as a BMW M3. You see, BMW now rolls sales of their 3-Series and 4-Series vehicles into one another, they are not reported separately. So essentially, the top-line BMW 3-Series Coupe is actually the BMW M4 Coupe.

That car starts at $62,400. I decided to use the configurator to 'build my own' version of the BMW M4 Coupe. For some reason, it is unfortunately not available in RED. That's a real shame, but I chose the Sakhir Orange Metallic, which is close enough. I piled on the interior packages for Driver Assistance Plus, Executive, and Lighting. I added every Performance, Convenience, and Entertainment option. Well, all except the $350 'power rear sunshade', anyway. That brought the total to a whopping huge $88,875. Close, but not quite $100,000.

Please note that I'm not really a guy who goes for luxury & convenience stuff. So in the real world, if I were buying one of these, I'd spend a lot less than that. Of all the things in that configuration for the BMW M4, probably the only ones I would consider a 'must have' are the moonroof, which was listed as a no charge addition, and probably the 'Enhanced USB and Bluetooth plus Smartphone Integration'. I did leave it configured with the automatic transmission, because those are consistently faster and get better fuel economy on BMWs.

Let's take a look at the potential 'competition' for a Tesla Model ☰ Coupe, shall we?

Price	Vehicle	Range Miles/km	HP
39,900	Audi TT Coupe quattro	411/663	211
42,600	Infiniti Q60 AWD Coupe	400/645	330
42,500	BMW 428i xDrive Coupe	411/663	240
48,000	BMW 435i xDrive Coupe	379/611	300
64,200	BMW M4 Coupe	303/489	425
39,900	Tesla Model ☰ 60 Coupe	250/403	300
47,900	Tesla Model ☰ 85 Coupe	318/513	416
52,900	Tesla Model ☰ P85+ AWD Coupe	318/513	416
59,900	Tesla Model ☰ P135+ AWD Coupe	505/815	500

DOH! I forgot about these:

Price	Vehicle	Range miles/km	HP
39,495	Cadillac CTS Coupe 3.6	378/609	318
41,495	Cadillac CTS AWD Coupe 3.6	378/609	318
63,600	Cadillac CTS V Coupe	252/406	556
75,000	Cadillac ELR	340/548	217

So ultimately, it appears that this boils down to three vehicles:

• BMW M4 Coupe
• Cadillac CTS V Coupe
• Tesla Model ☰ P135+ AWD Coupe

Which would you recommend?

 

[aronth5]

I kept wondering why people here kept saying that a Tesla Model ☰ Coupe such as the AWD P135+ variant I described would/should command a price tag in excess of $100,000... So. I stopped by the BMW website. I learned something very important to this discussion.

There is no longer any such thing as a BMW M3. You see, BMW now rolls sales of their 3-Series and 4-Series vehicles into one another, they are not reported separately. So essentially, the top-line BMW 3-Series Coupe is actually the BMW M4 Coupe.

That car starts at $62,400.

Not sure on why your omitting the BMW M3 Sedan that starts a $62,000? And when do you expect Tesla to come out with a coup model since it is very unlikely that will happen until 1-2 years after the initial Model 3 comes out.
http://www.bmwusa.com/standard/content/byo/byohome.aspx?namodelcode=15TN

 

[dsm363]

I know we are speculating but does anyone else really believe Tesla will put out a 135kWh pack in their entry level car in 3 years? It likely won't even be in the Model S in 3 years.

 

[Red Sage]

aronth5: Maybe I didn't mention it before... But I don't particularly care for sedans, the Tesla Model S is the only 'sports sedan' I recognize, and I'm not a BMW fan, so I keep forgetting there are 'M' versions of their sedans. That's why I've continually said that I hope for a Tesla Model ☰ P135+ AWD Coupe. I looked for the closest potential competitors to what I expect that car will be, and listed them above.

It may not be in this thread, but another... I have posted that it is highly unlikely a Tesla Model ☰ Coupe will appear in a timely fashion. If it does come, it will likely be preceded by: Sedan, Crossover, Wagon, Minivan, 3-Door Sporthatch, Convertible 2+2... I will probably have to wait a while at the back of the line. ;-)

dsm363: I think that there will be a 135 kWh battery pack in the Tesla Model S in two years, 2016. I realize that is very optimistic, but it is not unrealistic. It matches the ~40% improvement from the 53 kWh battery pack on the 2008 Tesla Roadster, to the 85 kWh battery pack on the 2012 Tesla Model S. It is very likely that a 110 kWh battery pack will be available at the very least by 2016. 110 kWh matches the ~8% annual improvement in lithium ion storage capacity that has been observed by JB Straubel.

 

[James Anders]

The M4 or M series coupe is just a great looking car. I REALLY hope that the Model /// is offered in a 2 door coupe variant and that it looks as good or better than the BMW 4 coupe.

 

[Red Sage]

James Anders: Yeah, I'm rather afraid that I will have to settle for a Tesla Model ☰ sedan or sporthatch while waiting for a coupe to materialize.

I had been thinking in terms of Acura, Lexus, and Infiniti brands... Legend coupe & sedan... Integra sedan and sporthatch... LS sedan & SC coupe... Infiniti M/Q sedan & coupe...

But I had forgotten how much weight that sedans, minivans, SUVs, & crossovers command in the sales market these days. Since the Tesla Model ☰ is meant to be a mass market car, and coupes are such a tiny portion of mass market sales, it is likely I will not be able to get a coupe at the Generation III launch.

 

[dsm363]

Just for reference I cut and paste ☰

into search and it turns into &#9776 and gives zero results. Writing 3 instead of ☰ would be helpful. I know ☰ looks cool but Tesla calls this model the Model 3, not model ☰.

 

[Red Sage]

Because this logo exists, I won't be using MIII or MIII or M/// or even M3. Until such time as a logo is unveiled, I'll be writing Tesla Model ☰. It represents a numeral '3' and I pronounce it as 'three', even as I think of it as 'E'. Whether you see it as 1337-speak or not is up to you. I'm pretty sure that someone doing a search online will be able to find Tesla Motors Club and the various posts on Bluestar, Generation III, or Model ☰ without issue. Oh, there is also the fact that I am not a BMW fan.

 

[sigurdi]

@Red Sage
When you estimate the battery size on a Model ☰ to 135kWh you use the Roadster 56kW battery compared to the S85.
The 56kWh Roadster weights 990 pounds http://www.teslamotors.com/roadster/technology/battery and the S85 clocks in at 1323 pounds.
It is 35% more capacity and 25% with same weight on the 4 years from 2008 to 2012.
They changed to a aluminum based cathode, that gave less weight.
With same speed to 2016 it would give a 106kWh battery with the same size and weight as the S85 battery. (1323 pounds)
This could not fit in the Model ☰, when the battery chemistry gets better you can get smaller and lighter batteries with same capacity or the same size with higher capacity.
Not both at the same time.
(35% larger capacity and 35% less weight/size needs a 70% better battery.)

sigurdi