Tesla model 3, (S & X) running cost per week

[tess1988]

wasn't sure when to post this but seeing it has to do with Australian pricing i through i would post here, i posted it on another website at first and feel free to do your own on model 3 or even your model S.

not that we know the pricing of the current model 3 and the exchange rate but as of today US$35,000 is $54,000 when you add 10% GST and another $2,000 on top(1 AUD = 0.740952 USD)

if you look at Model S Resale Value Guarantee for australia(as of 10/5/16) it is:

Resale Value Guarantee Term
Mileage Allowance (km) 36 48 60
15,000 50% 46% 42%
20,000 49% 45% 41%
25,000 48% 42% 38%
Tesla Resale Value Guarantee FAQ

To qualify for the Resale Value Guarantee, you must finance a minimum of 60% of the vehicle (on approved credit) for a term between 36 and 60 months.

now i did read someone here teslamotorsclub.com some said tesla allowed then to do 30% unless that means 60% and you don't include the balance(what the car is worth after say 60 months)?

SERVICE PLANS
Individual service cost (including GST) $500 $725 $500 $975
Three years prepaid service cost (including GST) $1,525 $975
Four years prepaid service cost(including GST) $2,375
Eight years prepaid service cost (including GST)
The specified services repeat for years 5 through 8 $4,500

The specified operations repeat after year 4. For example, perform "Year 1" operations in year 5 and "Year 2" operations in year 6.
Service plans

COST PER WEEK
anyway a couple of weeks ago i worked out how much it would cost over
5 years weekly(resell is 42% so it looses 58% value?) with 15,000 km per year, i didn't include financing cost but did include prepay 4 year then a extra 1 year service based on todays pricing.

TESLA 5 YEAR COST AFTER 5 YEARS VALUE
cost(TO BUY) – 42% resell/5 years(42%))
$65000 – 58% $27,300
$60000 – 58% $25,200
$55000 – 58% $23,100

then divide 5(years)
27,300/5 $5,460
25,200/5 $5,040
23,100/5 $4,620
then divide52(weeks)
5,460/52 $105
5,040/52 $96.9230769231
4,620/52 $88.8461538462

service 4 year prepay + 1 year + $2500 insurance pre year
$2374 + 500
2,874/5
574.8 + 2500
3,074.8/52 which is $59.1307692308 per week

TOTAL COST PER WEEK including service/insurance
$164.1307692308
$156.0538461538
$147.9769230769

or you could choose 8 year prepay $4500(you would loose 3 years of service because you had car in but pricing is locked in because you prepay) + $2,500 insurance
$170.3846153846
$162.3076923077
$154.2307692308

--------------------------------------------------------
Sorry for the long post one day i may include the finance cost unless someone else wants to do it, did i miss anything?
also it would be nice to see model S running cost compared to say BMW etc

 

[tess1988]

EDIT: i forgot to - 5 year value from the cost of tesla and has edit the rest

not that we know the pricing of the current model 3 and the exchange rate but as of today US$35,000 is around $54,000 when you add 10% GST and another $2,000 on top(1 AUD = 0.740952 USD)

if you look at Model S Resale Value Guarantee for australia(as of 10/5/16) it is:

Resale Value Guarantee Term
Mileage Allowance (km) 36 48 60
15,000 50% 46% 42%
20,000 49% 45% 41%
25,000 48% 42% 38%
Tesla Resale Value Guarantee FAQ

To qualify for the Resale Value Guarantee, you must finance a minimum of 60% of the vehicle (on approved credit) for a term between 36 and 60 months.

now over on teslamotorsclub.com some said tesla allowed then to do 30% unless that means 60% and you don't include the balance(what the car is worth after say 60 months)?

SERVICE PLANS
Individual service cost (including GST) $500 $725 $500 $975
Three years prepaid service cost (including GST) $1,525 $975
Four years prepaid service cost(including GST) $2,375
Eight years prepaid service cost (including GST)
The specified services repeat for years 5 through 8 $4,500

The specified operations repeat after year 4. For example, perform "Year 1" operations in year 5 and "Year 2" operations in year 6.
Service plans

COST PER WEEK
anyway a couple of weeks ago i worked out how much it would cost over
5 years weekly(resell is 42% so it looses 58% value?) with 15,000 km per year, i didn't include financing cost but did include prepay 4 year then a extra 1 year service based on todays pricing.

TESLA 5 YEAR COST AFTER 5 YEARS VALUE
cost(TO BUY) - 42% resell/5 years(42%))
$65000 - 58% $27,300
$60000 - 58% $25,200
$55000 - 58% $23,100

EDIT: COST PRICE - 5 YEAR RESELL VALUE
65000-27,300 = $37,700
60000-25200 = $34,800
55000-23100 = $31,900

then divide 5(years)
37,700/5 $7,540
34,800/5 $6,960
31,900/5 $6,380
then divide52(weeks)
5,460/52 $145
5,040/52 $133.8461538462
4,620/52 $122.6923076923

service 4 year prepay + 1 year + $2500 insurance pre year
$2374 + 500
2,874/5
574.8 + 2500
3,074.8/52 which is $59.1307692308 per week


TOTAL COST PER WEEK including service/insurance
$204.1307692308
$192.9769230769
$181.8230769231


or you could choose 8 year prepay $4500(you would loose 3 years of service because you had car in but pricing is locked in because you prepay) + $2,500 insurance
$210.3846153846
$199.2307692308
$188.0769230769


--------------------------------------------------------
Sorry for the long post one day i may include the finance cost unless someone else wants to do it, did i miss anything?

 

[Mark E]

My insurance is $1200p.a rather than $2500..

 

[NovoCasGreeny]

Tess as Mark E points out I think your insurance value is very high. I have been quoted $2300 for an S P90DL. 29 no claims etc. Model 3 should be less than $1,000 depending on your own individual circumstances. You should also consider that the resale guarantee is the worst case. I personally think once the market for electric cars stabilise depreciation is not going to be as bad as ICE cars. Most of the components will still be is great condition and you could chuck in a new longer range battery (in 5-10 years the batteries should be significantly cheaper) and you're as good as new. It will be the included technology that faces the greatest depreciation risk, not the 'wear and tear' on the vehicle drivetrain. I mean to be honest you might see the S going to way of the Roadster which has had several updates and packages released after production completion. Maybe in five years Sig models can go in for a 2.0 update.

 

[Brian May]

My insurance is $1200p.a rather than $2500..

Seems different people have greatly different experiences with insurance costs. One poster here reported being quoted $6,500 for insurance [Model S Insurance in Australia] for the Model S.

For the Tesla Model S, it seems to me what you save in terms of petrol costs could easily be spent on increased insurance premiums instead. Unless you happen to be lucky and get cheap insurance.

 

[NovoCasGreeny]

Seems different people have greatly different experiences with insurance costs. One poster here reported being quoted $6,500 for insurance Model S Insurance in Australia for the Model S.

For the Tesla Model S, it seems to me what you save in terms of petrol costs could easily be spent on increased insurance premiums instead. Unless you happen to be lucky and get cheap insurance.

I was quoted $6,500 but I sorted through the issues in the quote and ended up at $2,300. I also think you're comparing apples and oranges, the Model 3 is going to be a much cheaper car and not as powerful. The cost of the vehicle is a huge factor on the premium and the X/S vs 3 are significantly different in cost.

 

[Mark E]

Seems different people have greatly different experiences with insurance costs. One poster here reported being quoted $6,500 for insurance [Model S Insurance in Australia] for the Model S.

For the Tesla Model S, it seems to me what you save in terms of petrol costs could easily be spent on increased insurance premiums instead. Unless you happen to be lucky and get cheap insurance.

Don't forget that if you are insuring a P90DL then you are insuring a $260k supercar that can do 0-100 in 3.0 seconds.... It's going to cost a bit more than a Toyota Camry 2.0L to insure.

In my case it's cheaper to insure my S85 than my previous car - an old Porsche. Being over 50 and with a great driving record and way to many years of compressive insurance history helps a lot too.

 

[PJF000]

I've always worked on rule of thumb that cars lose 50% of value every 3 years. Now, I would think the metrics are about to change. In 3 years more people are going to realise that their ICE car is losing (or has lost) it's resale value because of the advent of electric cars and the (ever increasing) realisation by governments worldwide preparing for the inevitable and making it harder to own and ultimately drive non-electric vehicles. Certainly in 5 years i would go as far as saying there will be virtually NO resale value for any ICE vehicle (excepting maybe classic collectibles). If all that plays out, then the demand for good EV's will dramatically increase and in the case of Tesla vehicles, their value's will not diminish at anywhere near the rate that traditional ICE vehicles have in the past.
On the basis of the above, the Resale Guarantee program doesn't make a lot of sense. Just my view.

 

[baillies]

I've always worked on rule of thumb that cars lose 50% of value every 3 years. Now, I would think the metrics are about to change. In 3 years more people are going to realise that their ICE car is losing (or has lost) it's resale value because of the advent of electric cars and the (ever increasing) realisation by governments worldwide preparing for the inevitable and making it harder to own and ultimately drive non-electric vehicles. Certainly in 5 years i would go as far as saying there will be virtually NO resale value for any ICE vehicle (excepting maybe classic collectibles). If all that plays out, then the demand for good EV's will dramatically increase and in the case of Tesla vehicles, their value's will not diminish at anywhere near the rate that traditional ICE vehicles have in the past.
On the basis of the above, the Resale Guarantee program doesn't make a lot of sense. Just my view.

I think it is closer to 10 years but for 2 reasons.

1- petrol will get more expensive and harder to find as stations go bust and close.
2- insurance for vehicles that do not have self driving and accident avoidance will go up and up. AU government will probably be slow to react like normal... Read will not react till the market has already totally shifted. Countries like Norway will be 5 years ahead of us at least...

Note model 3 is still likely to be another 2 years before it arrives and 3 before it has enough numbers and competition to be noticed by the general car buying public.

 

[PJF000]

[

I think it is closer to 10 years but for 2 reasons.

In 10 years the party will be over (IMHO). Markets factor in projected knowns. The used car market is no different. The smart money is already refraining from participating in the used ICE car market..

 

[NovoCasGreeny]

I've always worked on rule of thumb that cars lose 50% of value every 3 years. Now, I would think the metrics are about to change. In 3 years more people are going to realise that their ICE car is losing (or has lost) it's resale value because of the advent of electric cars and the (ever increasing) realisation by governments worldwide preparing for the inevitable and making it harder to own and ultimately drive non-electric vehicles. Certainly in 5 years i would go as far as saying there will be virtually NO resale value for any ICE vehicle (excepting maybe classic collectibles). If all that plays out, then the demand for good EV's will dramatically increase and in the case of Tesla vehicles, their value's will not diminish at anywhere near the rate that traditional ICE vehicles have in the past.
On the basis of the above, the Resale Guarantee program doesn't make a lot of sense. Just my view.

PFJ000, very interesting viewpoint on the ICE market. One that I share wholly, however, I do not think that in five years it will be as drastic a step shift as you suggest. I think in 10-15 years you will be quite on the money. EVs will AC motors are soooo much more durable than ICE cars, the whole drivetrain is much simpler. I think your going to see a lot of refitting and retooling of the same vehicles. I think rather than the 3-5 year ownership terms currently the model will shift to lifetime ownership or zero ownership through ride sharing etc. ICE cars will all become collectors items and fuel will get pretty hard to come by, and hopefully extremely expensive to burn. Every 5-10 years you'll zip down to the local Tesla shop to have a new battery fitted with better range and an update on your hardware features and maybe a respray and you're all good for another 5-10 years. I also think batteries will become bigger for a while but then get much smaller and you will simply rent a long ranger if required which will be a 2 minute job to install.

 

[PJF000]

PFJ000, very interesting viewpoint on the ICE market. One that I share wholly, however, I do not think that in five years it will be as drastic a step shift as you suggest. I think in 10-15 years you will be quite on the money. EVs will AC motors are soooo much more durable than ICE cars, the whole drivetrain is much simpler. I think your going to see a lot of refitting and retooling of the same vehicles. I think rather than the 3-5 year ownership terms currently the model will shift to lifetime ownership or zero ownership through ride sharing etc. ICE cars will all become collectors items and fuel will get pretty hard to come by, and hopefully extremely expensive to burn. Every 5-10 years you'll zip down to the local Tesla shop to have a new battery fitted with better range and an update on your hardware features and maybe a respray and you're all good for another 5-10 years. I also think batteries will become bigger for a while but then get much smaller and you will simply rent a long ranger if required which will be a 2 minute job to install.

You may be right Then again none of us have a crystal ball. My view for the "longer term" of 10 - 15 years is that we will be seeing fully autonomous vehicles transporting the populations of the world where there is no need for a driving license (indeed you will need to prove why you need one and be able to demonstrate your driving ability to safely negotiate autonomous vehicles IF you can still get one. Vehicles to a large extent will not be owned by individuals as if one wants to go somewhere they just contact a provider tell them where you are going and a vehicle comes to your house you get in and it takes you to your destination. Like a cab but no driver and cheaper than having your own autonomous vehicle.
If all that sounds ridiculous, just remember that the Iphone that you cannot live without was unknown less than 9 years ago.

 

[Mark E]

I think that it's more liklely to be 15 years at least before EVs dominate the fleet despite being optimistic that new vehicle sales will go electric much faster than that. The average age of the fleet today is just over 10 years - 9309.0 - Motor Vehicle Census, Australia, 31 Jan 2015
Even with rapidly dropping prices the model 3 will still be a $60k car in 2018. For many people that is still too much to pay for a car. Consider that the LCT threshold for normal cars is around $55k. Most people buy second hand and $20k buys quite a lot of fuel and service for a small car that cost $30-35k.

 

[NovoCasGreeny]

You may be right Then again none of us have a crystal ball. My view for the "longer term" of 10 - 15 years is that we will be seeing fully autonomous vehicles transporting the populations of the world where there is no need for a driving license (indeed you will need to prove why you need one and be able to demonstrate your driving ability to safely negotiate autonomous vehicles IF you can still get one. Vehicles to a large extent will not be owned by individuals as if one wants to go somewhere they just contact a provider tell them where you are going and a vehicle comes to your house you get in and it takes you to your destination. Like a cab but no driver and cheaper than having your own autonomous vehicle.
If all that sounds ridiculous, just remember that the Iphone that you cannot live without was unknown less than 9 years ago.

I completely agree on the iPhone front but I don't think this is quite the same, rate of technological advancement yes but the rate of replacement is going to be different with cars, it is replacing something not adding something. It is going to be like turning around a juggernaut that has it's bow stuck in an iceberg. I think you're going to see a vast amount of change over the next 10 years and EVs starting to finally become mainstream and the vehicle of choice but the global fleet is around 1 billion cars and that's going to take a long time to change. Just the scale up of production in batteries will require 200 gigafactories or equivalent to be built just to keep up with current annual production. I think the next 10-15 years are going to see fully autonomous vehicles on the road and in 20-30 years will see out the last of ICE vehicles, apart from collectibles. It is going to be a quick transition but there is such a vast fleet of vehicles to be recycled and re-purposed and a vast amount of private opposition to it (O&G vast wealth at stake) that I think it is going to take slightly longer than we would like.