Besides legacy electronics, battery is also difficult problem. Lets say, Model S needs new battery 2040. There will be very few Model Ses in use at that time. I'm 99% sure Tesla will not supply those batteries 2040. Neither does anyone else, because market is so small. Of course some hobbyists can replace old pack with new cells, if 18650 cells are still sold. But replacing cells one by one by hand is very time consuming process. If one has to pay some one to do it, it will cost more than new car.
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MassModel3
Member
I think another thing we need to consider is software bloat. As long as Tesla makes a single version of software for all their cars, the software packages will just get larger and larger. Okay, the pieces you can't use won't be used, but the full application will still be downloaded to your car with each update. End result will be a slower and slower end-user experience. Unless there is the ability to upgrade the main system board (faster processor, more memory), your computer-on-wheels can quickly become just a flashy antique. Other option, of course, is Tesla simply determines that software updates are maxed out after a certain VIN, with emergency updates only, but eventually they'd have to stop supporting older platforms altogether.
I wouldn't worry much about spare parts in the far future. There are enough MS being built that there will be a hobby movement around them. Batteries in the future will be so common and pedestrian that making a custom pack for a MS is no big deal.
There are still steam cars from the early 1900's that are drivable. You can almost build a complete 50 year old Corvette from brand new parts ordered out of a catalog. As long as the car is something special that people are interested in, parts and expertise will be available.
There are still steam cars from the early 1900's that are drivable. You can almost build a complete 50 year old Corvette from brand new parts ordered out of a catalog. As long as the car is something special that people are interested in, parts and expertise will be available.
jerjozwik
Active Member
interesting thread, the only thing i would say that stands as a hurddle for any "hobby mechanic/software engineer" would be tesla's clamp down on service. for instance it would be hard to figure out the battery management software if say tesla went away.
unless there was an open source movement to figure the car out. sort of like the CHDK firmware for canon cameras or the community firmware for linksys routers.
there is however the massive subculture of DIY electric car builders that could supply a vast majority of the part necessary to make the car move many years from now in the event tesla vaporized. i imagine many of the tesla only small auxilary system parts might be hard to find but i am very confident in saying you could keep the car on the road.
unless there was an open source movement to figure the car out. sort of like the CHDK firmware for canon cameras or the community firmware for linksys routers.
there is however the massive subculture of DIY electric car builders that could supply a vast majority of the part necessary to make the car move many years from now in the event tesla vaporized. i imagine many of the tesla only small auxilary system parts might be hard to find but i am very confident in saying you could keep the car on the road.
PokerBroker
Member
This really isn't a realistic scenario. At some point nearly ALL vehicles become more costly to maintain than they are worth. That is when it's time to dump it and move on. I don't see the Model S being much of a collectors car.
That being said you wouldn't need to replace near that many batteries.
That being said you wouldn't need to replace near that many batteries.
I can't say what auto industry change will mean for any current vehicles. I can tell you that Teslas are built to to last, easy to repair and service. They will not be expensive to repair, despite what others have said and experienced here. They are aluminum, which usually adds about 10% to the repair cost. They are similar to the Porsche Panamera and do cost more than a conventional car to fix, but not as much as some of the horror stories here seem to suggest. Because Tesla monitors the methods and quality of repair so closely and does not allow unqualified repairers to buy any critical parts, we can expect the used fleet to be uniformly sound and safe. They are working with insurers and repairers to make our cars inexpensive to fix and long lasting. They look at every estimate we write . They aren't about to let insurers dictate how things get done or what parts get used and they will not tolerate shops that overcharge, take to long or mistreat customers. These things will have a bearing on the long term value of anything with their name on it. That is my opinion as a repairer and owner.
From a financial point of view it is unrealistic to plan to keep any car for the length of time envisioned by the OP. Certainly it is possible to do so, and I think a well made EV like the Model S will be easier to keep running than a comparable ICE. In 10 years Tesla will have built a few million Model S and parts will still be available, either from Tesla or from the aftermarket. I believe the company will be in business for many decades. But no one can predict the future decades hence with much accuracy. Which is why the OP should not buy a Tesla with the idea that they have to keep the car for over twenty years or it doesn't make sense. Cars are now "consumer electronics" and they are evolving rapidly.
And when fully autonomous vehicles become a reality in 5 to 10 years the billions of cars currently on the roads will not be banned or become useless. They will continue to be driven.
By the way, until last year I owned a 1959 Porsche. It was quite usable as a "regular" car, but repairing it was a challenge. While Porsche loves to talk about the high percentage of their cars that are still being driven, that figure is high because Porsche produced relatively low numbers of cars during their first several decades, those cars have now become "classics" and have high values, and in the past few decades they produce much higher volumes than I their early years and of course a lot of those cars are still on use. Also, their cars are expensive so of course they are maintained and run over longer periods of time than a $15K economy car that is junked after 8 years when the transmission gives out or the engine fails.
And when fully autonomous vehicles become a reality in 5 to 10 years the billions of cars currently on the roads will not be banned or become useless. They will continue to be driven.
By the way, until last year I owned a 1959 Porsche. It was quite usable as a "regular" car, but repairing it was a challenge. While Porsche loves to talk about the high percentage of their cars that are still being driven, that figure is high because Porsche produced relatively low numbers of cars during their first several decades, those cars have now become "classics" and have high values, and in the past few decades they produce much higher volumes than I their early years and of course a lot of those cars are still on use. Also, their cars are expensive so of course they are maintained and run over longer periods of time than a $15K economy car that is junked after 8 years when the transmission gives out or the engine fails.
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Desirable cars that were produced in somewhat high numbers get pretty good aftermarket support. The Model S is pretty likely to be one of those. We are now at around 70k units, and if production of the same body style continues for a few more years, Tesla might hit close to 500k Model S cars built. That would seal the deal on good support.
I fully expect that this car will easily go 20 years with just basic repairs. While the battery might not get the same range as it did when new, it will still be usable. Having said that, unless one can work on cars themselves, it's never cheap to maintain cars older than about 10-15 years old. This goes for any car.
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Desirable cars that were produced in somewhat high numbers get pretty good aftermarket support. The Model S is pretty likely to be one of those. We are now at around 70k units, and if production of the same body style continues for a few more years, Tesla might hit close to 500k Model S cars built. That would seal the deal on good support.
I fully expect that this car will easily go 20 years with just basic repairs. While the battery might not get the same range as it did when new, it will still be usable. Having said that, unless one can work on cars themselves, it's never cheap to maintain cars older than about 10-15 years old. This goes for any car.
I fully expect that this car will easily go 20 years with just basic repairs. While the battery might not get the same range as it did when new, it will still be usable. Having said that, unless one can work on cars themselves, it's never cheap to maintain cars older than about 10-15 years old. This goes for any car.
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Desirable cars that were produced in somewhat high numbers get pretty good aftermarket support. The Model S is pretty likely to be one of those. We are now at around 70k units, and if production of the same body style continues for a few more years, Tesla might hit close to 500k Model S cars built. That would seal the deal on good support.
I fully expect that this car will easily go 20 years with just basic repairs. While the battery might not get the same range as it did when new, it will still be usable. Having said that, unless one can work on cars themselves, it's never cheap to maintain cars older than about 10-15 years old. This goes for any car.
Well, being the OP and a software engineer and a hobby mechanic the Tesla really is ideal 
I think there is a good chance that a Tesla could be, not only, useable but also worth driving every day.
The question becomes if it is economically viable to do so after a certain period of time and the answer to that depends on where you live. In Denmark with a 180% tax + 25% vat on every car sold we have a situation where you can throw tons of money after your old car and still be better off than buying new.
For comparison so you have a number, here a Golf GTI costs $74.447 compared to the US price of $24.785. BEV's are so far exempt from this tax, but that will not last. So I may not have time to wait for a Model 3 but be forced to buy a Model S. If that happens the price will be $110.000, so the car will have to last a long long long time to justify the price.
That's why I started this thread
I think there is a good chance that a Tesla could be, not only, useable but also worth driving every day.
The question becomes if it is economically viable to do so after a certain period of time and the answer to that depends on where you live. In Denmark with a 180% tax + 25% vat on every car sold we have a situation where you can throw tons of money after your old car and still be better off than buying new.
For comparison so you have a number, here a Golf GTI costs $74.447 compared to the US price of $24.785. BEV's are so far exempt from this tax, but that will not last. So I may not have time to wait for a Model 3 but be forced to buy a Model S. If that happens the price will be $110.000, so the car will have to last a long long long time to justify the price.
That's why I started this thread
(LMB spouse)
Two points. First, we had a problem with the touchscreen recently. The car was driveable and I didn't think it was a big deal but a) no heat in winter! b) even worse, no defrost; had to open the windows periodically to keep the windshield clear. Lots of other things missing, e.g. back-up cam, but the first two were the worst.
Second. I'm a (retired) hardware engineer and I've repaired a lot of consumer-grade electronics. Most of the time, the failure is a connector of some kind and rarely fatal to other components. After that, capacitor failures: either old electrolytics or that bad batch of Chinese caps from the early 00's. These are pretty generic and simple to replace. I've seen very few chip failures except high-powered graphics chips run at the edge of their temperature range.
Most cars made in the last 15 years have one or more computers on-board. These don't seem to be failing at an unreasonable rate.
Two points. First, we had a problem with the touchscreen recently. The car was driveable and I didn't think it was a big deal but a) no heat in winter! b) even worse, no defrost; had to open the windows periodically to keep the windshield clear. Lots of other things missing, e.g. back-up cam, but the first two were the worst.
Second. I'm a (retired) hardware engineer and I've repaired a lot of consumer-grade electronics. Most of the time, the failure is a connector of some kind and rarely fatal to other components. After that, capacitor failures: either old electrolytics or that bad batch of Chinese caps from the early 00's. These are pretty generic and simple to replace. I've seen very few chip failures except high-powered graphics chips run at the edge of their temperature range.
Most cars made in the last 15 years have one or more computers on-board. These don't seem to be failing at an unreasonable rate.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
I still drive a 2000 Land Rover. In fact, just made a 2400 mile trip over the Christmas holidays (still waiting for my 85D). It has 178000 miles.
Land Rover is not known for reliability but this car has been very reliable. I've replaced a few parts (most expensive was the Bosch anti-lock brake controller).
There are dedicated Land Rover enthusiasts who keep their older LRs (from the 50s and 60s) running just fine. Good sources of parts for everything.
The Tesla S is all aluminum so the body won't rust out (most common problem with older cars).
The electric motor should run forever... perhaps with a bearing change... it's just one moving part with a few bearings as the only wear points... much simpler than an ICE. The rest of the drive train is just a few gears and bearings which can be easily replaced if they wear out after a few hundred thousand miles.
The battery is potentially the most problematic unknown. We don't really know how long it will last. However, it's easy to replace and will get cheaper every year.
Other than that, just keep buying new tires and drive it forever.
Land Rover is not known for reliability but this car has been very reliable. I've replaced a few parts (most expensive was the Bosch anti-lock brake controller).
There are dedicated Land Rover enthusiasts who keep their older LRs (from the 50s and 60s) running just fine. Good sources of parts for everything.
The Tesla S is all aluminum so the body won't rust out (most common problem with older cars).
The electric motor should run forever... perhaps with a bearing change... it's just one moving part with a few bearings as the only wear points... much simpler than an ICE. The rest of the drive train is just a few gears and bearings which can be easily replaced if they wear out after a few hundred thousand miles.
The battery is potentially the most problematic unknown. We don't really know how long it will last. However, it's easy to replace and will get cheaper every year.
Other than that, just keep buying new tires and drive it forever.
Calculating on keeping the car for 30-40 years to make the numbers make sense is very dangerous.
1. Repair cost beyond the warranty could be massive. Have you seen some of the repair bills posted here? Where else can you go and get your car serviced and buy parts but from Tesla.
2. Battery is a big unknown. If it dies out of warranty, will you have to wait 2-4 months to buy a new one as Tesla rather wants to sell a new cars than a battery pack?
3. Aluminium will corrode, and if you look back at older posts Tesla had made huge design flaws in this area in early production runs mixing two kinds of metal resulting in corrosion.
I really understand people want to get this lovely car and make every kind of stretched calculation to get the numbers to make sense, but making a 30 year prediction is completely impossible and a huge risk with an inexperienced company that has shown many time not to be perfect. The only realistic calculation can be made within the warranty.
1. Repair cost beyond the warranty could be massive. Have you seen some of the repair bills posted here? Where else can you go and get your car serviced and buy parts but from Tesla.
2. Battery is a big unknown. If it dies out of warranty, will you have to wait 2-4 months to buy a new one as Tesla rather wants to sell a new cars than a battery pack?
3. Aluminium will corrode, and if you look back at older posts Tesla had made huge design flaws in this area in early production runs mixing two kinds of metal resulting in corrosion.
I really understand people want to get this lovely car and make every kind of stretched calculation to get the numbers to make sense, but making a 30 year prediction is completely impossible and a huge risk with an inexperienced company that has shown many time not to be perfect. The only realistic calculation can be made within the warranty.
The main reason IMO not to drive old cars is because of advancements in safety. Just as today you don't drive a >10 yr. old car because the safety improvements made during that time are far too significant to ignore at this point, assuming you value your life. Of course as others mention, the main advance within a decade from now will be self-driving, and that too will be a necessity IMO because the decrease in fatality probability should be at least 10x.
Of course as others mention, the main advance within a decade from now will be self-driving, and that too will be a necessity IMO because the decrease in fatality probability should be at least 10x.
caddieo
Member
On a lighter note - - I should envy you for being able to think of keeping your car in good running condition for at least 20 years. Most of the posts agree that it is doable. But for me, it is a moot question because of my age (almost 80). This may well be the last car I own - but for reasons different from yours. :wink: BTW, I had a 1973 BMW 2002 tii that was still running well when I finally sold it after buying the P85.
Given financial incentives for buying an electric car in Denmark, your decision should be simple.
If you plan on buying a car and keeping it for decades, make sure you love it. Any car will pose long-term risks and Model S is not an exception. Some things may break. The good news is that its power train and battery are covered for 8 years and unlimited kilometers by Tesla's worldwide warranty. If something happens with the car in 10 or 15 years, the taxes you save for going electric (and possibly the money you make by investing it now) should offset the cost.
Just imagine how much fun you will have driving all over Europe without paying for fuel, especially knowing that you didn't have to pay that 180% tax. You will have many years of worry-free miles while enjoying a car that looks great, handles and drives great, quiet, spacious, fast and efficient. Isn't Denmark supposed to be 100% powered by renewables soon? You, Danes, make perfect Tesla brand ambassadors!
Now go custom order yours.
If you plan on buying a car and keeping it for decades, make sure you love it. Any car will pose long-term risks and Model S is not an exception. Some things may break. The good news is that its power train and battery are covered for 8 years and unlimited kilometers by Tesla's worldwide warranty. If something happens with the car in 10 or 15 years, the taxes you save for going electric (and possibly the money you make by investing it now) should offset the cost.
Just imagine how much fun you will have driving all over Europe without paying for fuel, especially knowing that you didn't have to pay that 180% tax. You will have many years of worry-free miles while enjoying a car that looks great, handles and drives great, quiet, spacious, fast and efficient. Isn't Denmark supposed to be 100% powered by renewables soon? You, Danes, make perfect Tesla brand ambassadors!
Now go custom order yours.
I don't think you'll have any problem. There are tons of Mercedes and Porsches on the road from the early 1970s, and those cars are perfectly usable as daily drivers. The Model S will be the same way.
The future of autonomous vehicles may keep you from using certain roadways or going to certain places (downtown areas, for instance), but that should be manageable. If it's not, well, you'll just have to buy something new or use other forms of transportation.
The future of autonomous vehicles may keep you from using certain roadways or going to certain places (downtown areas, for instance), but that should be manageable. If it's not, well, you'll just have to buy something new or use other forms of transportation.
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