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mspohr
Well-Known Member
But will probably still work just fine. Electronics last forever. I have piles of electronic stuff that just won't break.
If the screen does the job now, it will still do the job in 20 years.
Ok, I'll try to answer some of the point raised by many insightful comments.
1. Buy now? As I said the tax structure in this country may change in regard to electric vehicles, the earliest possible change could be on January 1. 2016, so I am holding my breath until mid 2015. If the politicians tax electric vehicles then a Leaf could well run to $80.000, a Tesla would be beyond our reach forever (estimated price: $224.000). I would prefer to buy a Model 3 as it would suit us better, but if the taxman comes my hand will be forced in 2015.
2. Safety - advancements in safety really don't concern me anymore. I run a much higher risk of getting killed by the flu, cancer, heart failure and about 10.000 other things before a car accident kills me. Denmark is 4th safest country in the world to drive. Also I consider my BMW to be safe enough to drive every day with acceptable risk and the Tesla is leaps and bounds beyond that. Unless everyone else starts driving depleted uranium bullet-cars the Tesla will be just fine. It's a matter of speed, momentum and energy and the laws of physics don't change that much
3. My wife and I tend to buy our cars cash so there is a huge mental barrier to cross here as we would need to take out a loan for a Tesla. This relates to reason 1 and the taxes. Even for a DINK-couple with great jobs this is a stretch to buy, as it is for almost anyone here.
4. Thanks for the nice words Caddieo. And remember: Drive hard
My personal thoughts are that the Model S will stand a better than average chance of reaching the 20+ year mark if properly cared for. At least it is resistant against corrosion, we have a salty climate that eats everything here. Also nobody knows how long you will be able to renew your service-contract, thats ultimately up to Tesla.
I hope our politicians don't kill the electric car but if they do kill at the of this year we will probably go for a used Tesla from somewhere in the EU.
1. Buy now? As I said the tax structure in this country may change in regard to electric vehicles, the earliest possible change could be on January 1. 2016, so I am holding my breath until mid 2015. If the politicians tax electric vehicles then a Leaf could well run to $80.000, a Tesla would be beyond our reach forever (estimated price: $224.000). I would prefer to buy a Model 3 as it would suit us better, but if the taxman comes my hand will be forced in 2015.
2. Safety - advancements in safety really don't concern me anymore. I run a much higher risk of getting killed by the flu, cancer, heart failure and about 10.000 other things before a car accident kills me. Denmark is 4th safest country in the world to drive. Also I consider my BMW to be safe enough to drive every day with acceptable risk and the Tesla is leaps and bounds beyond that. Unless everyone else starts driving depleted uranium bullet-cars the Tesla will be just fine. It's a matter of speed, momentum and energy and the laws of physics don't change that much
3. My wife and I tend to buy our cars cash so there is a huge mental barrier to cross here as we would need to take out a loan for a Tesla. This relates to reason 1 and the taxes. Even for a DINK-couple with great jobs this is a stretch to buy, as it is for almost anyone here.
4. Thanks for the nice words Caddieo. And remember: Drive hard
My personal thoughts are that the Model S will stand a better than average chance of reaching the 20+ year mark if properly cared for. At least it is resistant against corrosion, we have a salty climate that eats everything here. Also nobody knows how long you will be able to renew your service-contract, thats ultimately up to Tesla.
I hope our politicians don't kill the electric car but if they do kill at the of this year we will probably go for a used Tesla from somewhere in the EU.
breser
AutoPilot Nostradamus
I was driving a 15 year old 1999 Lexus GS400 that had a touch screen that managed navigation, entertainment, and climate. There were no software updates for it but it still worked fine (I did buy one or 2 updates for the maps over the life of the car). Lexus sold 30,326 of these vehicles in 1999. Which isn't that far off from Tesla's expectation to sell 33,000 vehicles in 2014 (don't know final numbers since they haven't reported them yet). I had no problems getting parts for the rare occasions when something needed fixing. None of the electronics ever had an issue. So I think your assumptions are just wrong.
The expected life of the car is 8 years. Tesla says so, with its drive train warranty. I'm hoping for at least 10. Anything beyond, bonus.
It will still be the most expensive car per year for those ten years I've ever owned, and will not have made sense to buy in the first place.
Oh, well. That's not the point.
We're saving the earth. That's more important.
The last surviving car on earth will be electric. Solar charged. That might come sooner than 40 years, if this keeps up:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/2014-was-hottest-year-in-modern-record-1.2912539
Oil is going the wrong way in price. We will kill ourselves at this rate and take the planet down with us.
Your life will be completely different in 30 years.
You may not want to drive, or be allowed to.
Or, you will tire of the car before 40 years is up.
My last car is a 30 year old Mercedes. Diesel. It's still runs, sitting in my garage not moved since the day I got my model S.
Night and day difference. Maintained like you intend to do with the S. No way do I feel like driving it again.
That car new was $43K, and just as much again has gone into maintaining it. (It's a peach if anyone is interested in buying it.)
Tesla provides an operating system and applications for the car. If you strip the S down to just the essentials for driving, you can remove much of the electronics and still go of it.
It just won't be as much fun, or refined, or integrated, or awesome. Someone else may decide to get in the game of replacing the operating system that Tesla put there... and give you a different one altogether. Not impossible. It may be an open system, group sourced.
Battery technology will be drastically different in 30 years. You won't be looking for an OEM slab of batteries after it goes for the 2nd time. You'll pop in the new source of power. It will be lighter, you'll go farther, and it will last longer.
Pick a future... but BUY THE CAR NOW AND DON'T REGRET IT. Why? The car may outlive you. Enjoy your life today by driving it.
It will still be the most expensive car per year for those ten years I've ever owned, and will not have made sense to buy in the first place.
Oh, well. That's not the point.
We're saving the earth. That's more important.
The last surviving car on earth will be electric. Solar charged. That might come sooner than 40 years, if this keeps up:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/2014-was-hottest-year-in-modern-record-1.2912539
Oil is going the wrong way in price. We will kill ourselves at this rate and take the planet down with us.
Your life will be completely different in 30 years.
You may not want to drive, or be allowed to.
Or, you will tire of the car before 40 years is up.
My last car is a 30 year old Mercedes. Diesel. It's still runs, sitting in my garage not moved since the day I got my model S.
Night and day difference. Maintained like you intend to do with the S. No way do I feel like driving it again.
That car new was $43K, and just as much again has gone into maintaining it. (It's a peach if anyone is interested in buying it.)
Tesla provides an operating system and applications for the car. If you strip the S down to just the essentials for driving, you can remove much of the electronics and still go of it.
It just won't be as much fun, or refined, or integrated, or awesome. Someone else may decide to get in the game of replacing the operating system that Tesla put there... and give you a different one altogether. Not impossible. It may be an open system, group sourced.
Battery technology will be drastically different in 30 years. You won't be looking for an OEM slab of batteries after it goes for the 2nd time. You'll pop in the new source of power. It will be lighter, you'll go farther, and it will last longer.
Pick a future... but BUY THE CAR NOW AND DON'T REGRET IT. Why? The car may outlive you. Enjoy your life today by driving it.
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breser
AutoPilot Nostradamus
The length of the warranty is not an indication of the expected life of a product. Many if not most products last well past their warranties. The warranty term is all about what the manufacturer thinks they need to offer in order to make people comfortable with buying. Obviously if the manufacturer offers a warranty that the product doesn't hold up to they will do poorly financially, but there's little incentive for a manufacturer to match their warranty to the expected life of the product.
There is a menu or range of longevity indicators in my posting.
Warranty is the the most conservative one.
Engineers can get very statistical about MTBF of parts, and the sum of the parts, and come up with failure analysis estimates, etc. etc... find the break even point for manufacturer areas of profitability etc.. etc.
I was siding with consumer views and human factors of answering the question "how long will this last me"?
There's going to be enough of them totaled over the years for body damage that doesn't destroy the electronics or motors that there will be a source of used parts.
Though you probably won't want a battery that has set idle for five plus years, hopefully the junk yards will be clued in on this aspect of EV's.
Though you probably won't want a battery that has set idle for five plus years, hopefully the junk yards will be clued in on this aspect of EV's.
What are they doing with the tax structure in Denmark? You are throwing around some frighteningly high numbers there.
Trying to find a replacement for lost tax revenue at fuel pumps because EV don't pump fuel?
Looking for alternative (more) taxes, or doing something truly structurally different - tax the consumer to the max and not the corporations.
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BMW is one of the most regretted consumer automotive buys, and not in keeping with it's expectations. (Consumers Report org)
Maybe most are dumped before their warranty period is up!
Trying to find a replacement for lost tax revenue at fuel pumps because EV don't pump fuel?
Looking for alternative (more) taxes, or doing something truly structurally different - tax the consumer to the max and not the corporations.
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BMW is one of the most regretted consumer automotive buys, and not in keeping with it's expectations. (Consumers Report org)
Maybe most are dumped before their warranty period is up!
You are entitled to think whatever you like. A sample size of one, your Lexus, isn't entirely convincing, though. Cars from the 1990s didn't need any software updates. They didn't rely on 3G services, didn't stream Google Maps, didn't receive music from smartphones and weren't controllable by apps. How would you like the Model S without all these services?
As to spare parts, Lexus is backed by the logistics of Toyota and it is mainly a US show. I wish you good luck trying to find cheap second hand parts in Europe, where they are about as rare as Ferraris. Like it or not, Tesla is still very much an exotic in Europe and how many parts will be available in 30 years is anyone's guess. It's not like a Golf of which you'll find a dozen on any scrapyard. You don't want to go hunting globally for spare parts for the car that provides your daily transport.
I would also like to point out that the thread opener isn't talking about owning the car for 15 years (which I consider as quite realistic), but about twice that time span.
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Compared to the long term Tesla at Edmunds . com even Lamborghinis start to look like indestructible workhorses. Anyone can find a survey that meets his opinion.
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Let me explain our current tax structures.
At the moment electric vehicles are tax exempt. This exemption expires at the end of 2015, unless our politicians change the law. Starting 2016 electric cars are taxed as all other cars. That means:
105% tax on the value of the vehicle up to $12805, the rest of the car is then taxed at 180% and the VAT is added. In case of a Tesla the car has a base value of $89.000. So final price would become (in 2016):
(89000 + (12805 * 1.05) + (76195 * 1.80) - 10.000) * 1.25 - 10000 = $286.995 registered and taxed.
This is how every car in this country is taxed before it can be licensed for the road. That is why a $25.000 Golf cost about $74.000 here.
So if they don't change the law it is either buy a Model S in 2015 or never ever buy an electric car.
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And for the record I have never ever regretted buying the BMW. It has been a reliable stable workhorse that has driven 86.000 miles over the last 5 years. But that is just my anecdotal evidence.
At the moment electric vehicles are tax exempt. This exemption expires at the end of 2015, unless our politicians change the law. Starting 2016 electric cars are taxed as all other cars. That means:
105% tax on the value of the vehicle up to $12805, the rest of the car is then taxed at 180% and the VAT is added. In case of a Tesla the car has a base value of $89.000. So final price would become (in 2016):
(89000 + (12805 * 1.05) + (76195 * 1.80) - 10.000) * 1.25 - 10000 = $286.995 registered and taxed.
This is how every car in this country is taxed before it can be licensed for the road. That is why a $25.000 Golf cost about $74.000 here.
So if they don't change the law it is either buy a Model S in 2015 or never ever buy an electric car.
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And for the record I have never ever regretted buying the BMW. It has been a reliable stable workhorse that has driven 86.000 miles over the last 5 years. But that is just my anecdotal evidence.
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count/calculate no more than 16 years - anything beyond is pure luck. don't count on it - or at leat do not make any financial plans according to it. I would in fact say 16 years is streching beyond resenble sense..
it will also depend on when/how you use the car, how meny miles you run per year and how you park it. (winter driving tend to wear more on the mecanical part, and parking out in the sun in summer might kill the electronics in long run.
the linux is runing from a SSD like disk - it will have a limmited number of writes - and for shure will not last +20 years.
bwt it might not rust due to aluminium, but it will corrode (already seen several places) - espesially here ind denmark in winther time.
I would advice you to find another car wich you can afford/payoff over a shorter period of time.
it will also depend on when/how you use the car, how meny miles you run per year and how you park it. (winter driving tend to wear more on the mecanical part, and parking out in the sun in summer might kill the electronics in long run.
the linux is runing from a SSD like disk - it will have a limmited number of writes - and for shure will not last +20 years.
bwt it might not rust due to aluminium, but it will corrode (already seen several places) - espesially here ind denmark in winther time.
I would advice you to find another car wich you can afford/payoff over a shorter period of time.
I never stated that I would pay off a car like this over a long period. As a matter of fact I expect us to pay for the car in full within 2 years at worst. But I believe in extracting as much value as practically possible when I buy a depreciating asset.
So the longer a Model S can live the more value it will provide, but since the purchase price is high the life expectancy needs to match in order for the value proposition to make sense. At 15 years I would feel comfortable with the cost/benefit of a Model S.
So the longer a Model S can live the more value it will provide, but since the purchase price is high the life expectancy needs to match in order for the value proposition to make sense. At 15 years I would feel comfortable with the cost/benefit of a Model S.
I drove my new 1972 Land Rover Series III until 1991. I didn't really cost more to run as it aged. I got rid of it mainly because the clutch was causing a repetitive stress injury to my left leg--it was still running fine. I don't know how many miles were on it because the odometer cable broke sometime after 100,000.
Another ex Landrover owner here, yours sounds similar to mine. Mine was a 1973 LWB 2 door, it died when the rear cross members rusted through though at circa 25 years old. I guess living in Texas has it's benefits
Ben W
Chess Grandmaster (Supervised)
That will certainly be true in the US, time will tell if other parts of the world get sufficient numbers to make this viable.
One unknown is what happens if you do a "brain transplant" in the Model S. Does it assume the identity of the wrecked car? If so how do you restore a backup?
Perversely I actually think the Model S would make a great platform for an "EV Conversion". Use the base car, and put in 3rd party motor, battery, and controller. Replace the screen and computer with something more open source, and you still have a very nice looking aerodynamic car. All the engineering headaches of where to put the batteries are gone, and a lot of the expensive cabling and contactors, drive by wire throttles etc. are already present.
Who knows in 10 years time what the state of the EV scene will be, what batteries are available, what sort of power circuitry you can get. You might even end up with a longer range, lighter more powerful car, but I wouldn't hold out hope to be able to use this "franken-Tesla" at a Supercharger
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