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Discussion in 'Model S' started by ccbldg, Dec 12, 2013.
Elon Musk currently being interviewed...
Teslas Musk speaks out on battery production - CNBC
yeah, but... what does he mean that they (Panasonic) will need longer to increase their production from here? Is that expected or something new?
Panasonic plans a big increase in lithium ion battery capacity sometime in 2014. The company will add capacity at three sites in Japan and add a fourth line at its Kasai plant in Hyogo prefecture, just west of Osaka. It will add a line at its Sominoe plant in Osaka, which makes cylindrical lithium ion batteries for Tesla. They will also begin cylindrical battery production for cars at its Kaizuka plant, also in Osaka.
Panasonic declined to give capacity figures for cylindrical lithium ion batteries because that capacity targets almost exclusively a single automotive customer: Tesla.
Thanks for the update. Where did you receive that information?
Thanks... let's hope they can deliver those cells
In the spirit of transparency and open disclosure, I wish tesla would simply say how many cells are committed to be produced by Panasonic in Q1 and Q2 of 2014. I get that Panasonic is ramping in 2nd half of 2014' but how much is to be produced over the first half of 2014. Clearly TM and Panasonic know this number so why not just tell everyone.
Not really sure how I feel about this...
I mean, it's great that they're getting more Model S out on the roads, but what is happening to quality control when they're pushing out more and more vehicles? I doubt it's still the several hours per vehicle they claimed in an earlier video.
Based on several reports here on the forum, vehicles rushed out for end-of-quarter are already more problematic, so will these issues become more widespread as production ramps up?
Not a stock-holder myself (only a customer) so I'm primarily concerned about Tesla's reputation as a quality automaker, not their profit margin.
This seems silly. Do you want them to keep making 500 cars per week, forever?
Part of growing is maintaining quality while increasing output. If they can't do that, they won't grow. Not growing = dying.
Well, if there's an end of quarter push pattern, it seems that the next quarter they've been able to produce at higher rates without problems.
This will be covered in February during Q4 earnings call. Tesla said they'd release 2014 forecast at Q4 Earnings Call. Given how much time was spent covering battery supply issues at Q3 Earnings call, Tesla will either proactively cover Panasonic's supply problems and/or the analysts will ask countless questions regarding it.
The thing about quality control is that if it's done by lots of inspection and testing of the final product, you've already lost the game. Once a manufacturing process is proven, incremental, hopefully automated, monitoring is by far the best way to ensure quality.
I hope you're right. Model S is an absolutely fantastic car, but it is plagued by a few little issues that I think could be avoided by improved QC.
Name me one brand of car that isn't plagued by a few little issues. I've never owned one and I don't know anyone who's never owned one. Even the most reliable vehicles I've owned over the years, the ones that never left me stranded, had a few little issues.
I agree, no car/brand is perfect.
What gives me pause is that some small issues which should have been corrected fairly easily once they were discovered/reported instead seemed to persist over many months and many cars. (water in the taillights comes to mind). This is to say nothing of the more serious persistent problems such as 12V battery failures and factory wheel misalignment. Tesla has been very reactive in dealing with these problems rather than their usual proactive selves.
Just suggesting this may be an area where Tesla could improve. :smile:
That's a very valid point, but more inspections won't fix it. If the same problem is appearing in multiple cars, e.g. windshield cracking, the design and/or manufacturing process either needs to be changed or more closely controlled. I'm not trying to be argumentative, my point is just that with a highly automated manufacturing process, the best (pretty close to only) way to get good product out is to get the process down cold. Fortuitously, while the setup cost is not trivial, it does mean that the incremental cost in money and time can be low.
Absolutely right. I didn't mean to suggest more inspections were the only way to go. Tesla should use whatever means are available to them to iron out these issues, whether that means merely refining the manufacturing process, switching suppliers if a part is found to be problematic, or issuing a TSB to correct the issue at a service center (though the former two things should eliminate the need for the latter).
Generally, a manufacturer has two knobs to tweak when dealing with a problem that has been found after production begins: (1) add/change a step in QA/QC and/or (2) change something in the production process. Obviously, in general, one prefers (2). But (2) may take time to implement and roll-in, so you may choose to do (1) in the meantime. And you usually keep doing (1) until not only has (2) been rolled into production but until you are satisfied that (2) is indeed fixing what you want to fix. So QA/QC changes and production process fixes are not mutually exclusive.
There are some interesting variants. (3) The manufacturing fix is more expensive than you can tolerate. So you just do (1), maybe forever. And (4) the problem is so serious you shut down the manufacturing line until you have a better understanding and/or fix. You can bet that no one wants to do (4).
Could this push in production is to fill the Euro orders or is it for the North American orders?