Tesla Model Y Delivery Timing Raises Concerns: Video

[Cloxxki]

I have a friend who works for a bakery, and when I say bakery I mean the sort that can empty a semi-truck load of flour in less than 30 seconds. One of the bajillion loaves a day sorts of places.

Anyway, my point is that they had a new director come in and he was all like "why are we manufacturing for our competitors?" and put a stop to that. Let's just say that it was career suicide. They still haven't recovered entirely.

Tesla as a battery manufacturer is going to win every time VW's Electrify America (or any other charging company) needs one of their power-packs. Their competitor's growth is also their own growth.

Now if only they also owned a solar cell company to sell PV panels to the electricity suppliers (likely requiring low-cost energy production to meet environmental targets) that are needed to juice up those charging station power packs....

I don't see serious ramping in either grid solutions nor solar yet, but sure hope they'll get around it. According to some analysts, the Energy side has greater potential than the awkward business of making and selling cars. On size fit all, pretty much, with Energy products. Everyone can use Solar, especially if more plug and play. We know Tesla make good products but we also know they as among the worst at actually reaching mass production. For that they are too cocky. Although I'm sure that'll be wearing off a bit, Model 3 could have ended the company had it gone any worse.

 

[scottish9000]

Why do all these analysts miss the elephant in the room. NO other brand has charging infrastructure like Tesla. You can say your coming out with all these great things, VW, Audi, Porsche, Volvo, Chevrolet, on and on. But if you have no way to travel with that car, to me anyway that car is just a grocery getter. None of these guys own, understand or live with an electric car.

They don't have the patience to understand it and if truth be known like most people, not all, they don't want to understand it either.

It'll be a solid 5-10 years before any one brand that is speaking now about their electric car platforms will be starting to touch the coat tails of Tesla. Its taken a solid 8 years for Tesla to get where they are with steep learning curve in the years prior to this last 8.

We better get behind alternative means here at any cost, this planet is talking to us.

Great post...I would just hit the like button but this site is crazy so it won't let me post my picture or like your post...I have a question which you may be able to answer. What do you think of the FSD network and having your car go work for you? Would you be willing to buy a Model Y for such purpose, if so which configuration would you purchase? Thanks and have a nice day!

 

[11thIndian]

Tesla has ALWAYS stated Model Y production estimates at the end of 2020.

Not quite true. Elon's first comments about Model Y back in 2017 were "aspirationally late 2019, more realistically 2020". Last year Elon seemed to settle into 2020. But considering Model 3 was unveiled March 2016 and started production June of the following year, I was hoping for a similar timeframe for Model Y. So Fall was initially a bit disappointing. But then again if Tesla can ramp Model Y more effectively than Model 3- then it will probably mean more customers getting their cars faster regardless.

 

[Cloxxki]

Not quite true. Elon's first comments about Model Y back in 2017 were "aspirationally late 2019, more realistically 2020". Last year Elon seemed to settle into 2020. But considering Model 3 was unveiled March 2016 and started production June of the following year, I was hoping for a similar timeframe for Model Y. So Fall was initially a bit disappointing. But then again if Tesla can ramp Model Y more effectively than Model 3- then it will probably mean more customers getting their cars faster regardless.

If so many of the parts are the same, expediting Y seems possible and needed.
The first 100.000 or 200.000 units of the Y will be Long Range, Dual Motor, etc.
Right now, a large part of Model 3 is SR+. Because, it will suffice just fine.
With 3 lines operational today, why not implement Model Y as soon as possible first on one with LR Dual Motor, then soon on a second line, while keeping 3 SR+ on one?
SR+ prices could be increased. Y LR could be set quite high to begin with also.
More revenue, higher margins.

And if the robots are so clever, could they not assemble 3 and Y on the same line? Make as many Y LR DM as the market will take, then all the 3 LR DM the market will take and then fill up with 3 SR+ until more capacity is made available.

I'm all for realistic time lines, but taking 3 full years for a nearly identical (in terms of parts) Model Y to be added, is a very long time. Smaller brands with lower cost cars are happy to make more models and body versions.
How hard would it have been for Skoda to add a Model 3 estate version had they somehow been put in charge of the 3 program with less than epic demand? The estate could be Performance only for a while, then trickle down.
Like saying no to money...

 

[tomas]

Tesla starts out at ~$5k disadvantage to ICE due to battery cost. Manufacturing economics far more sensitive. They cannot produce a lot of variants and keep prices competitive.

 

[Cloxxki]

Tesla starts out at ~$5k disadvantage to ICE due to battery cost. Manufacturing economics far more sensitive. They cannot produce a lot of variants and keep prices competitive.

While true to an extent, if implies Tesla is competing dollar for dollar with ICE cars, which they aren't. R&D is substantial but costs of features in volume are very modest. Also, similarly prices ICE cars come with better materials, finish and service infrastruncture.
Having said that, electric motors tend to perform better for everyday driving and warranty costs having very few moving parts.

Higher C rate cells come into play here. A 40 kW car with 4C charging such as the announced Porsche Taycan will barely lose time on long drives to recent bigger battery cars and even ICE cars. 15 kWh less for a base model is a nice way to save money. Until some 3-4 years ago, just over 1C was all the Tesla flagships could offer with long term use. Model 3 is going to get 3C, a wonderful jump which can and should be used to reduce battery sizes, environmental impact and car pricing.