Tesla Model Y in Australia

[nuckles]

Just thinking out loud.
Thoughts on when we might see a model y in Australia.
Also price on the standard range i am thinking about 80k.

 

[moa999]

Who knows category.

My personal view is all future RHD models (both 3 and Y) will come from Shanghai.
Some test RHD 3s were shipped a few months ago to Hong Kong.

Shanghai Model Y has just started production, so id say minimum 12 months before they start shifting to RHD.

As for pricing. Whatever the 3 SR+ (or possibly 3 Standard as it seems to be now) is at the time plus $5k

 

[GrimRe]

Who knows category.

My personal view is all future RHD models (both 3 and Y) will come from Shanghai.
Some test RHD 3s were shipped a few months ago to Hong Kong.

Shanghai Model Y has just started production, so id say minimum 12 months before they start shifting to RHD.

As for pricing. Whatever the 3 SR+ (or possibly 3 Standard as it seems to be now) is at the time plus $5k

Rumours are that Shanghai will be at a 500k run rate by the end of 2021 with 100k units exported to international markets (blended 3/y). 100k export is a lot of units.

My sneaking suspicion is that we will see the same timing as the Model 3. That is; May is when the Model Y order page opens, vehicles built in June/July 2021 and then arrive in September 2021. Tesla have often preferred to open up new markets rather than fully satisfy demand in the current and closer markets first.

 

[Onshore]

Has there been any sightings of RHD Y's so far?

 

[GrimRe]

Has there been any sightings of RHD Y's so far?

Apart from some testing in NZ, no

 

[arthur_alston]

Given that it’s now confirmed Shanghai Giga is building our M3, I wonder what the implication is for earliest MY here? Do you think it will bring it forward a bit? I’m one of those waits for a MY, but so keen that I may buy a M3 and trade it in once the MY arrives.

Tesla Giga Shanghai Made Model 3 Begins Shipping to Australia, New Zealand & Japan

 

[meloccom]

Given that it’s now confirmed Shanghai Giga is building our M3, I wonder what the implication is for earliest MY here? Do you think it will bring it forward a bit? I’m one of those waits for a MY, but so keen that I may buy a M3 and trade it in once the MY arrives.

Tesla Giga Shanghai Made Model 3 Begins Shipping to Australia, New Zealand & Japan

Given that they only started production of Model Y at the Giga Shanghai in the last few months, I think RHD production may be a few months off until they satisfy the high demand within China for the new model.

 

[Tigger]

India is RHD, and also happens to be geographically in the middle of most markets that have RHD.

My guess would be that longer term, all RHD versions will get produced out of the India Gigafactory.

 

[moa999]

that longer term, all RHD versions will get produced out of the India Gigafactory.

Quite possibly.. or Thailand or Indonesia

But first Tesla would actually need to launch in any of those countries.

India is expected to open its first dealership in 2021.

 

[GrimRe]

Latest Q4 investor deck states that the Shanghai factory has 450,000 installed capacity for combined 3 / Y.

This is a lot more than anyone was expecting. I would not be surprised at all if they the Model Y first batch arrives this year in Aus.

My guess is still May for configurator to go live, September for first deliveries.

Also, I doubt we will get the Model Y SR. Shanghai is currently only making the Long Range and Performance models.

Pricing wise, I'm guessing:

LR: $85k
Performance: $102k

 

[moa999]

All depends on when Chinese demand moderates.

They sold three months worth of capacity on the day the China configurator went live

 

[GrimRe]

All depends on when Chinese demand moderates.

They sold three months worth of capacity on the day the China configurator went live

China demand is insane. However there is still a bottleneck with deliveries after production. At a certain point, if the factory is say pumping out 1,000 model y per day, the local delivery centres can’t keep up. At this point, it’s better to shift a batch to other markets. I have no idea what that delivery bottleneck number is or if it is even lower than production.

There is also the perceived long term value in having Model Y in new markets sooner rather later. No better way to advertise the model y than to have some driving around.

also as you said in the model S refresh thread; currently the only Tesla you’ll be able to take delivery of this year is the model 3. Surely it would make sense to offer the Y this year for those who need something bigger than a 3 and now don’t have the option of the X.

All my points are just perhaps wishful thinking. Truth is I, nor anyone else outside Tesla HQ have any idea when Y will launch in Australia

 

[moa999]

Who knows.

But from what we've seen until we get a dedicated RHD plant, RHD cars might continue to be the ugly stepchild.
With any new model or major refresh production dedicated to LHD only for sometime.

 

[Hairyman]

Who knows.

But from what we've seen until we get a dedicated RHD plant, RHD cars might continue to be the ugly stepchild.
With any new model or major refresh production dedicated to LHD only for sometime.

Hopefully when they start selling into India that issue will disappear

 

[Shock-On-T]

Hopefully when they start selling into India that issue will disappear

Is India going to be that big a market for such an expensive vehicle?

 

[Hairyman]

Is India going to be that big a market for such an expensive vehicle?

I had thought even a small portion of 1.3 billion people would be a big number. A quick look said BMW and Mercedes were selling 10,000 or so cars a year each. So you might be right, we’ll need to see.

 

[Shock-On-T]

I had thought even a small portion of 1.3 billion people would be a big number. A quick look said BMW and Mercedes were selling 10,000 or so cars a year each. So you might be right, we’ll need to see.

Kind of hard to know because it’s hard to know what the percentage will be, even though it is of such a large number of people.
The last time I was there my father‘s Indian business partner pointed to someone driving what looked like a three-year-old gold Camry and gave me a knowing look and said “rich man”.
I know there are plenty of millionaires over there, but they sure do like their Mercs

 

[GrimRe]

Latest rumour out of China is 580k run-rate for Model Y out of China by Q4 this year. This is an absolutely massive number. I really expect that they will open AU orders this year if they expect to be increasing output by 5x of Model Y in China this year.

 

[JayTee]

Are we any closer to knowing when the Y might be available? Looking more likely to be next year now? The wife is well overdue for a new car but im trying to hold off until the Y is here.

 

[moa999]

Nothing official.

Some comments on Twitter that there might not be any 3 LR production in Q3 for Europe, and maybe Aus which would suggest China demand is still high and/or supply chain issues are hurting.

Either way not good for a Y launch for us