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Tesla Model Y in Australia

@Vedaprime has very good knowledge of all things Tesla but i have to doubt him on this occasion when speaking about the Y.
I'm going to go out on a limb & say that Vedaprime isn't making any comment about timing or political climate, but rather tooling. New seeds = new tooling. Perhaps new frame, perhaps new batteries, who knows? Of course, there'll never be confirmation from Vedaprime, so no matter what the outcome, one can always point to that prophetic tweet as being "correct".
 
@RareEarth and @Electric Mouse and others...

I feel you are all asking the wrong question: "When is Model Y coming", instead of "Why isn't Model Y coming anytime soon".

@Chuq
Planting a seedling or two doesn't make a forrest. Tesla has planted lots of seeds in many countries. Now they look where the trees are growing tall and want to plant a forrest. Is Australia really the most important place in the world to do this? Is the soil here the most fruitful? I beg to differ...

To make it clear, just because Tesla has certified their vehicles doesn't mean they have to deliver them the next day...The certification isn't even a drop in the ocean when comparing costs to distributing cars to the "wrong market at the wrong time".

Availability
USA
Tesla Model Y is one of the most popular EV cars and completely sold out until Q2/Q3. USA factories can't help EU or any other part of the world.

Hong Kong
All RHD model Y shipped recently from Shanghai are going to Hong Kong. It is close and it is a simple market to sell into.

Europe
The demand is incredible. All RHD cars being shipped from Shanghai from now on will go to UK for deliveries after X-mas. Shanghai's LHD will go to the rest of Europe. Shipping takes 45 days give or take + local distribution.

GigaBerlin. Although the factory is built, they are not allowed to produce cars. Government has an extended complaint period up until 22nd of Nov. Then it will take a week or two to settle the outcome and at worst case, demand Tesla to amend environmental aspects of the facility. So forget about cars being manufactured before X-mas.
Once opened in January, do you really think production will go up to 100% within a day? How about employment, training, safety checks, inductions, quality control and logistics. This will all mean further delays. You won't be seeing 1000+ cars Q1, Q2. And even if you did, that won't fill the shelves in Europe without help from Shanghai. In other words, Shanghai will be crucial for Q1 and Q2 for Europe.

Climate
USA
My home state Cali is leading the world in EV. I'm proud of that. Other states (Republican mostly LOL), are not as keen. I'm neither a democrat or a republican, but Biden's recent packages deals with the future infrastructure and environment. I applaud that someone has the guts to do something. And it is definitely on the side of EV. US has been struggling with a challenging mining culture that just doesn't want to break the cycle.

EUR
As you all know, EU is to ban ICE sales. It sends clear signals to present and future buyers to consider EV instead. This is where Model Y fits it perfectly as a SUV car for any family interested in buying a new car.
Tax incentives are still offered and will most likely take off further for buyers.

Tesla is making a small tax fortune based on emissions on selling EVs in Europe. This beats the cost of importing Shanghai cars.

So what about Australia
Unfortunately, the Australian government, can still not make a full turn to EVs. Depicting EVs as a threat to the Australian weekend earlier on has turned to a luke-warmish approach in the last days. The rest of the industrialised world has embraced the possibility of EVs. But what kind of signal does this send to consumers in Australia? When the leader of a country states that EVs are "a threat"?

Morrison was considering not even going to the Glasgow COP26 summit. Because Australia needs to sell coal, to protect jobs and industry. It is all about the money. Norway on the other hand, being the 13th biggest oil producing country (5 times what Australia produces, or roughly what the oil state Qatar and Australia produces combined) has taken the strategic decision almost a decade ago that they will invest in EV infrastructure. Today over 80% of new cars sold in Norway are EV, not to mention Scandinavia, Germany and the BENELUX countries.

In this forum you have many visionaries and early adopters seeing the light. Outside this forum in Australia, all my colleagues think I'm stupid for bying a M3. That is until they sit in it. Until they come to our house where I have everything solar and the car is charing for free. But it takes a lot of time to change sentiment. Now at least 5-6 of my friends swear they will never buy an ICE for city driving. However, less than 1% of cars in Australia are EVs and the market is not ready yet. This forum is, but not the market.

Please remember, the M3s that arrived in Australia has taken longer to sell than what Tesla expected. I have received over 10 phone calls (roughly 1-2 per month) trying to coerce me to get a second M3 instead of a MY within the last months. Do you think Tesla wants to ship over MY here to have it sitting in a parking lot for a few months? Or do you think they will ship it to Europe where they have already been ordered and are awaiting delivery. Where they get money on emission rights?

Unlike many of you here, I actually owned a Model Y (2020) for a few months before coming here. It is a fantastic car! Sure, it is quirky and it may take some time to realise that is the way forward for someone coming from ICE cars.

I don't want to condemn anyone to waiting, because that is exactly what we are doing as well. I would love to see MY come here Q1, but my inidication from the people I know says it won't happen. It would defy both logic and good business practice. Unless there is a parameter that none of us is aware of. Tesla has been known to surprise before.

If there is one thing that will kill the Australian sacred weekend, it won't be EVs. It will be that coal that Australia is burning and a government which believes it is the most important asset

Sorry for the lengthy post. This is the world as I understand it based on the information I have. If you want to get vocal - then get vocal among your friends, at your workplace and voice your opinion so that your representatives understands. Telling me I'm wrong won't make any difference whatsoever. I might very well be wrong. I would be very very happy if I am. But would you bet on it?
 
Last edited:
On a personal level, I am not invested in whether Y's come here next week or next year. I am very happy with my X and my next Tesla will hopefully be a Cybertruck, although I think that the "Cybertruck in Australia" thread is going to be way longer. Anyway, in no hurry.
Not sure why you have directed your post at me, I agree with most of your points except for Australians' readiness for EVs. To continue your small sample size examples I know several people who will snap up a Y when available (outside of this this forum). I was approached the other day by a complete stranger in a supermarket carpark asking about when they would appear here (I think he mistook my X for one).
Obviously agree that a Federally coordinated incentive program for EV adoption which includes a massive rollout of charging infrastructure would help but this ain't happening anytime soon.
Australia is facing the same vested interest crap that other countries do, it is just our small population and vast size will dictate that government must be much more involved.
 
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Vedaprime

Member
Feb 15, 2019
949
1,691
Brisbane
@RareEarth and @Electric Mouse and others...

I feel you are all asking the wrong question: "When is Model Y coming", instead of "Why isn't Model Y coming anytime soon".

@Chuq
Planting a seedling or two doesn't make a forrest. Tesla has planted lots of seeds in many countries. Now they look where the trees are growing tall and want to plant a forrest. Is Australia really the most important place in the world to do this? Is the soil here the most fruitful? I beg to differ...

To make it clear, just because Tesla has certified their vehicles doesn't mean they have to deliver them the next day...The certification isn't even a drop in the ocean when comparing costs to distributing cars to the "wrong market at the wrong time".

Availability
USA
Tesla Model Y is one of the most popular EV cars and completely sold out until Q2/Q3. USA factories can't help EU or any other part of the world.

Hong Kong
All RHD model Y shipped recently from Shanghai are going to Hong Kong. It is close and it is a simple market to sell into.

Europe
The demand is incredible. All RHD cars being shipped from Shanghai from now on will go to UK for deliveries after X-mas. Shanghai's LHD will go to the rest of Europe. Shipping takes 45 days give or take + local distribution.

GigaBerlin. Although the factory is built, they are not allowed to produce cars. Government has an extended complaint period up until 22nd of Nov. Then it will take a week or two to settle the outcome and at worst case, demand Tesla to amend environmental aspects of the facility. So forget about cars being manufactured before X-mas.
Once opened in January, do you really think production will go up to 100% within a day? How about employment, training, safety checks, inductions, quality control and logistics. This will all mean further delays. You won't be seeing 1000+ cars Q1, Q2. And even if you did, that won't fill the shelves in Europe without help from Shanghai. In other words, Shanghai will be crucial for Q1 and Q2 for Europe.

Climate
USA
My home state Cali is leading the world in EV. I'm proud of that. Other states (Republican mostly LOL), are not as keen. I'm neither a democrat or a republican, but Biden's recent packages deals with the future infrastructure and environment. I applaud that someone has the guts to do something. And it is definitely on the side of EV. US has been struggling with a challenging mining culture that just doesn't want to break the cycle.

EUR
As you all know, EU is to ban ICE sales. It sends clear signals to present and future buyers to consider EV instead. This is where Model Y fits it perfectly as a SUV car for any family interested in buying a new car.
Tax incentives are still offered and will most likely take off further for buyers.

Tesla is making a small tax fortune based on emissions on selling EVs in Europe. This beats the cost of importing Shanghai cars.

So what about Australia
Unfortunately, the Australian government, can still not make a full turn to EVs. Depicting EVs as a threat to the Australian weekend earlier on has turned to a luke-warmish approach in the last days. The rest of the industrialised world has embraced the possibility of EVs. But what kind of signal does this send to consumers in Australia? When the leader of a country states that EVs are "a threat"?

Morrison was considering not even going to the Glasgow COP26 summit. Because Australia needs to sell coal, to protect jobs and industry. It is all about the money. Norway on the other hand, being the 13th biggest oil producing country (5 times what Australia produces, or roughly what the oil state Qatar and Australia produces combined) has taken the strategic decision almost a decade ago that they will invest in EV infrastructure. Today over 80% of new cars sold in Norway are EV, not to mention Scandinavia, Germany and the BENELUX countries.

In this forum you have many visionaries and early adopters seeing the light. Outside this forum in Australia, all my colleagues think I'm stupid for bying a M3. That is until they sit in it. Until they come to our house where I have everything solar and the car is charing for free. But it takes a lot of time to change sentiment. Now at least 5-6 of my friends swear they will never buy an ICE for city driving. However, less than 1% of cars in Australia are EVs and the market is not ready yet. This forum is, but not the market.

Please remember, the M3s that arrived in Australia has taken longer to sell than what Tesla expected. I have received over 10 phone calls (roughly 1-2 per month) trying to coerce me to get a second M3 instead of a MY within the last months. Do you think Tesla wants to ship over MY here to have it sitting in a parking lot for a few months? Or do you think they will ship it to Europe where they have already been ordered and are awaiting delivery. Where they get money on emission rights?

Unlike many of you here, I actually owned a Model Y (2020) for a few months before coming here. It is a fantastic car! Sure, it is quirky and it may take some time to realise that is the way forward for someone coming from ICE cars.

I don't want to condemn anyone to waiting, because that is exactly what we are doing as well. I would love to see MY come here Q1, but my inidication from the people I know says it won't happen. It would defy both logic and good business practice. Unless there is a parameter that none of us is aware of. Tesla has been known to surprise before.

If there is one thing that will kill the Australian sacred weekend, it won't be EVs. It will be that coal that Australia is burning and a government which believes it is the most important asset

Sorry for the lengthy post. This is the world as I understand it based on the information I have. If you want to get vocal - then get vocal among your friends, at your workplace and voice your opinion so that your representatives understands. Telling me I'm wrong won't make any difference whatsoever. I might very well be wrong. I would be very very happy if I am. But would you bet on it?
+1 Solid post
 
So what about Australia
Unfortunately, the Australian government, can still not make a full turn to EVs. Depicting EVs as a threat to the Australian weekend earlier on has turned to a luke-warmish approach in the last days. The rest of the industrialised world has embraced the possibility of EVs. But what kind of signal does this send to consumers in Australia? When the leader of a country states that EVs are "a threat"?

Morrison was considering not even going to the Glasgow COP26 summit. Because Australia needs to sell coal, to protect jobs and industry. It is all about the money. Norway on the other hand, being the 13th biggest oil producing country (5 times what Australia produces, or roughly what the oil state Qatar and Australia produces combined) has taken the strategic decision almost a decade ago that they will invest in EV infrastructure. Today over 80% of new cars sold in Norway are EV, not to mention Scandinavia, Germany and the BENELUX countries.

Great post. Our goverments insistance on supporting domestic coal is always head shaking to me, the same with gas. Norway is the perfect example of what Australia should be doing. Strong leadership in this area would have Australia use its massive renewable resources in the way of wind/solar/hydro to power its domestic economy whilst continuing to flog coa/gasl to countries who currently have no other choice. This would a) reduce our emissions, b) make us at the very least, appear green. Infact I am happy to continue selling uraium to countries who continue to choose nuclear power, but we should take the responsibility to handle the waste product as we have one of the best places on the planet to store it. The debate on nuclear power domestically is just silly as its so much easier to just go renewable here.

Morison is a joke.
 

positiv

Member
Jul 20, 2021
56
34
Sydney
@Vedaprime has very good knowledge of all things Tesla but i have to doubt him on this occasion when speaking about the Y.

It doesnt make sense to certify a vehicle then wait 12 months to bring it to market. They could have just waited till March next year to begin certification. We are basically the only country without the Y now. It is available to order everywhere but Australia and NZ (and maybe 1 or 2 other Tesla markets). All signs point to at least orders opening soon.

I also recommend a group effort of tweeting at Tesla and Elon to show them how much we want the Y.

Honestly I agree. The rumours do not match the actions of Tesla. Certifying a vehicle so far in advance of its delivery makes no sense. The certification approval is public and costly. It would seem vagarious to undertake such a process without intending to sell.

And also despite the "severe" parts supply shortage, Tesla continues to send us boatloads of the Model 3. We know that the Model 3 and Model Y share 75% of the same parts. Something clearly doesn't add up.
 
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I know one thing that would make people run towards EVs and embrace the technology and make even the current government beg people to buy EVs.

It is probably far fetched, and it will cause a lot of pain for many households.

Oil price is trading at around 84 USD per barrel.
Bank of America predicts a price of over 120 USD per barrel.
OPEC + have declined to pump out more, as they feel COVID have ripped them of so much money when prices were dumped last year. Unfortunately they will give in and start competing, which will drop the price as they get too greedy.

But imagine...just imagine if petrol price went up the equivalent +40%... up to 2.50 / litre
Oil reserves in Australia barely meet the 90 days for the International Energy Agency.

Would people accept the 30% efficiency rate of their ICE or would they slap solar on their roofs and tank on clean electricity in their brand new EV with over 85% efficiency?

Sometimes desperate measures CAN bring something good.

Now I don't want to even consider the effects of a conflict somewhere in the Middle East, or between China and neighbours with the current oil prices...

Food for thought.
 
New article today - China: MIC Tesla Sales Exceed 54,000 In October 2021

40,000 exported. I know the ones exported to Australia must have been low in October as our allocation completely sold out this time. I would love to know the number of those that were Ys and which countries they were distributed to.

The monthly and annual output of Giga Shanghai is insane. They surely have capacity to throw Australia a few 1000 Ys early next year??
 
Oil reserves in Australia barely meet the 90 days for the International Energy Agency.
Some of this isn't actually held in Australia. Angus did a deal with the US to hold some of our reserves there. Also accounting tricks are probably being used eg capacity held on tankers headed to Australia. So I suspect the actual number of days of reserve held in Australia is much lower.
 
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Ah. Good point. I was basing it off Friday website changes +1 month. If not today, lets keep tabs on Monday as well. Theres still hope yet.
I have been clicking religiously over the past several Thursday night into Friday's in the hope it would be released. I guess I'll be doin the same again this SUnday night going into Monday. Fingers crossed.
 

moa999

2020 3 SR+ MSM
Mar 4, 2020
1,308
1,081
Sydney, AUS
Source for above

Partially due to heavier 60kWh battery.
But more due to them using a new motor, now believed to be shared with the rear motor in the LR. The SR+ motor used to be shared with the P.
 

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