Thirdly, there is a significant incentive it most states right now. $3k cash back in NSW along with a waived stamp duty. This would include the SR only variants which constitute 80% of the sales volume.
That is true. NSW seems to lead the way. Some states seem to have an upper limit for some reason, making Model Y too expensive for the discount (LR). I find it is a mess just like in the US where you can get a great deal depending on which state you live in. There is no federal incentive or decision in the US and you seem to have copied our useless federal system.
The signal politicians seem to spread here in Australia (for a non Australian with a strong reference point in my Austalian wife's perspective on things) is that if you are willing to take a financial hit and invest in more expensive, environmentally friendly cars, you shouldn't get a carrot for it. Instead you may have to add extra roadtax in the close future because we obviously don't fuel up our cars with diesel or petrol. Instead of promoting the use of EV, politicians seem to be adamant to put obstacles for the EV market.
The NSW incentives are okayish - at best - if you live in NSW. Which I'm not
Besides, the US Cali incentives came up to 5.000 Dollars for many people. You could even get your home charger installation covered with 2.000 Dollars. As in real dollars! That, my friend, is a big 9.700 AUD worth of incentive. And you guys have so much solar it is insane. I see panelson every house where I live.
Anyone can do the maths and decide to go electric when you get these incentives + solar. It should be a no-brainer!. If you want to change people's minds? Change it through their wallets.
I don't doubt your story. I just know that Tesla employees are very much in the dark to specific tactical matter such as launch date in certain countries. Moreover, its a fluid situation and things change week on week depending on the real time demand in each market (as well as other factors)
What I heard earlier was that the original order-book launch would be in early October with deliveries late 2021 or early January/February due to holidays. They wanted to do a roll-out in Hong Kong and see the order-books. Then get the car certified in Australia. All this has been fulfilled. Except the release.
Even though "my guys" are not directly overlooking the Australian market per se, they do hear things internally at a high level. Sure, Tesla moves in mysterious ways and seem to do things ad-hoc sometimes, because they still have the flexibility to do so. In other words, anything can happen. However, it all comes down to order books, money and politics. If Europe needs it more than Australia, Europe gets it. If China needs it more than Australia, China gets it.
They said it was a strategic decision to hold it off to Q4 2022. To get their house in order and get the extra money from emission contracts as well. Australia doesn't cut it yet. The market is not ready and the Model 3 is going well, but not exceptionally fast.
I do hope they are wrong. I really do. But they have been very right on most things over the years and have more or less nailed the schedule up until now.
If you want real change in Australia, call your politician. Let them know how things are. Pester them and tell them they are not in line with what people expect or want. If enough people do that, politicians will bend. They are populists by nature and they need to stay popular. If it works in laid-back and soft-minded California, it should work here too
My 2 cents, for whatever it is worth. (US cents)
'Cheers'