Tesla Model Y in Australia

[Zoltrix77]

Yeah you're right, I messed up.

So 98Wh 4680 cells are basically on par with 18Wh 2170 cells, the others are proportionally better.

The change to 4680 cell format is for many reasons, no doubt the biggest is cost reduction through a simpler manufacturing process, I doubt it offers much for the end customer at this stage, other than a cheaper car, which Tesla may have no reason to pass on if demand is so high.

 

[EcoCloudIT]

They've been testing them for at least a year and Austin is going to be shipping customer cars like within days.

We wont see a structural pack here for at least a year probably longer.

Testing in a close environment, not real customers on the road etc. hence my comment....you never know we may get the new Y straight up in Australia...with 7 years of buying cars from Tesla Australia (even had S3X ) I know one never knows until one knows (which is often after the event)....

 

[RobDickinson]

Shanghai isnt doing structural packs or 4680 yet, it will at some point but not until at least the end of this year.

Plenty people bought the model 3 with a new battery pack and 2170s etc right out the door.

Not sure what your issue is tbh

 

[EcoCloudIT]

Shanghai isnt doing structural packs or 4680 yet, it will at some point but not until at least the end of this year.

Plenty people bought the model 3 with a new battery pack and 2170s etc right out the door.

Not sure what your issue is tbh

It's not an issue, but like you say we may get the new structural batteries by the end of this year on the Y in Australia...could be worth waiting.

Please, relax...I am a long term buying of Tesla cars, own a lot of Tesla stock and overall love the company. They’re not without their draw backs though, regrets (didn’t wait for newer mode etc.) and could do better (such as service, Tesla are you listening?)....imagine pulling the trigger and then a rumoured feature that was 18 months away is then all of a sudden in AUS/NZ delivered car (because blow me down Tesla Texas been told to build enough RHD Y units for AUS/NX market, with the new structural battery, or some such thing....

I am not daft and do consider the longer term ramifications of ownership….as all should, especially when we’re talking about maybe less than 12 months for a significant change to come through for a car that some may intend to hold of for many years to come.

 

[positiv]

Yeah you're right, I messed up.

So 98Wh 4680 cells are basically on par with 18Wh 2170 cells, the others are proportionally better.

Pretty much. The 4680 battery day presentation was a bit misleading in that respect. It's five times the energy, but also five times the volume. The main advantage is a dramatic reduction in part count - cheaper to manufacture.

But things have changed and Tesla seems to be moving to Prismatic LFP. The Model 3 SR is extremely popular.

 

[Leeroy]

But things have changed and Tesla seems to be moving to Prismatic LFP. The Model 3 SR is extremely popular.

Indeed. Although I think the SR’s popularity is a cost perspective rather than a technology one. Most of the people outside this forum don’t know much about lithium batteries other than 1)They seem to catch fire easier than other batteries 2) They’re also in a mobile phone.

Regardless, all is going in the right direction for more EV uptake

 

[Tasdoc]

4680 = 531cm3
2170 = 96.98cm3

So about 5 and a half the volume?

It's more like 133cm3 and 24cm3
Doesn't change the ratio though

 

[Vostok]

I thought one of the concerns with the larger cell (4680) is thermal management. It has a larger radius, so a longer thermal gradient?

It will be interesting to see if that concern manifests itself in something like more rapid capacity degradation, or turns out to be a nothingburger.

 

[RobDickinson]

The thermals have been dealt with that's the whole point of the tabless design

 

[Vostok]

The thermals have been dealt with that's the whole point of the tabless design

Well, thermals are hypothesised to have been dealt with via the tabless design, but proof of the pudding and all that.

 

[EcoCloudIT]

The thermals have been dealt with that's the whole point of the tabless design

Until we find something doesn't work as per planned...maybe...hopefully not...but we'll see over the first 12 months of ownership....

 

[moa999]

It's more like 133cm3 and 24cm3
Doesn't change the ratio though

You've also got to consider that the wasted space ratio is higher with bigger cells, though some of this is used up by the cooling circuit.

Agree with the statements that the 4680 is more about cost to manufacture, and possibly the charging curve, rather than suddenly producing a 150kWh vehicle.

 

[RobDickinson]

You've also got to consider that the wasted space ratio is higher with bigger cells, though some of this is used up by the cooling circuit.

That's actually (potentially) lower? They run cooling lines every 2 rows anyhow

 

[cafz]

You've also got to consider that the wasted space ratio is higher with bigger cells

How so? If you hexagonally pack equal-sized cylinders, the packing density is 0.9069 regardless of the diameter, isn't it?

 

[bcarp]

How so? If you hexagonally pack equal-sized cylinders, the packing density is 0.9069 regardless of the diameter, isn't it?

You could probably increase that by using a combination of different cylinder sizes too, but then cooling problems...

 

[moa999]

How so? If you hexagonally pack equal-sized cylinders, the packing density is 0.9069 regardless of the diameter, isn't it?

Smaller circles typically but not always denser.

Circle packing in a square - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[cafz]

Smaller circles typically but not always denser.

Circle packing in a square - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Note how even by 20 circles it's starting to closely approximate hexagonal packing. Once you get to hundreds of cells, it will make little difference.

 

[RobDickinson]

Yeah within reason the diameter of the cells doesn't make any difference

 

[lazydesi]

I have spoken with sales rep this morning about M3 and some other queries. I did ask about M Y ordering and she mentioned it will be happening this year but she dont know when and which models (when i ask about M Y SR) will be offered initially.

I still believe the orders will be opened this year with a 6-7 month delivery timeline.

 

[Nathanwhalan]

I have spoken with sales rep this morning about M3 and some other queries. I did ask about M Y ordering and she mentioned it will be happening this year but she dont know when and which models (when i ask about M Y SR) will be offered initially.

I still believe the orders will be opened this year with a 6-7 month delivery timeline.

I love that advice but thats her guess and take it with a grain of salt. I spoke to an SA who said he thinks it will be 2024. I laughed.

All signs point to this year if Berlin can get online and sell. The Y was certified here in September 2021, UK deliveries have started (they have sold out but can get delivery in May, better than our 5-7 month wait time for the 3) and Tesla said they will focus on order fulfilment this year.