Tesla needs a stripped down economy version of the X ASAP

[tonyinc]

http://news.investors.com/technology/100615-774266-tesla-bull-trims-price-target-model-x.htm

This analyst has been the biggest Tesla Bull for years and he agrees with the OP. This combined with the seats (which I am confident will cause cancellations) is not good news.
No matter how much you support Tesla and their products (which I really do), you have to agree the X launch is a fail for the company. There are just not enough people to pay anything and accept anything out there. This is not a bad thing if Tesla learns from it.

Just because people pay a $5,000 deposit like I did, does not mean they will pay significantly more than they expected and/or accept a reduction in utility.

This guy still has a crazy high target for the stock, but the point is even he sees an issue here. Just growing pains for Tesla, as they appeal to a broader and broader market, they have to make the customers feel loved at some point.

 

[Phil Seastrand]

... you have to agree the X launch is a fail for the company.

It's WAY to early to make proclamations like this.

 

[stopcrazypp]

No matter how much you support Tesla and their products (which I really do), you have to agree the X launch is a fail for the company. There are just not enough people to pay anything and accept anything out there. This is not a bad thing if Tesla learns from it.

It might be a failure, it might not. Without knowing the conversion rates to deliveries no one can say the launch is a failure. Even just looking at the cancellations is not enough as the launch was covered widely by the mainstream press (meaning Tesla likely have attracted additional customers with the launch).

Similarly for the seat issue, we don't know yet how big an impact it would be on sales.

 

[eloder]

http://news.investors.com/technology/100615-774266-tesla-bull-trims-price-target-model-x.htm

This analyst has been the biggest Tesla Bull for years and he agrees with the OP. This combined with the seats (which I am confident will cause cancellations) is not good news.
No matter how much you support Tesla and their products (which I really do), you have to agree the X launch is a fail for the company. There are just not enough people to pay anything and accept anything out there. This is not a bad thing if Tesla learns from it.

Just because people pay a $5,000 deposit like I did, does not mean they will pay significantly more than they expected and/or accept a reduction in utility.

This guy still has a crazy high target for the stock, but the point is even he sees an issue here. Just growing pains for Tesla, as they appeal to a broader and broader market, they have to make the customers feel loved at some point.

Everything with the MS launch is repeating itself.

Vehicle launches for much more than people expect? Check.

Mainstream analysts spelling gloom and doom for the company? Check.

Complaints about the vehicle's failure due to the lack of some specific features that are apparently a dealbreaker but doesn't do a thing to stop sales? Check.

A bunch of outrageous, off the wall features that no car company should explore for a mass produced vehicle? Check.

Somehow I don't think that Tesla is going to fail, because they're executing everything much better than the S launch except this time they have a 20-25k+ backlog to get through.

 

[zdre]

I bet we'll see a rear-wheel drive ~70kWh Model X by the end of next year that will start at ~$75K

 

[MrBoylan]

...
If it turns out, when my number is called, that the only option is a $120,000 battlewagon, most likely I'll politely request a refund of my deposit and buy another Jeep. Put off my electric dream until the prices come down a bit for me.

I don't think anyone at Tesla has stated or implied that you won't be able to order a stripped down 90D model in the first or second (or third or fourth) batch of production reservations. That would put the base price at $93,000 if it's $5K more than the S. The Tesla Model X site already lists specs for the 90D and the P90D. They just haven't listed anything below that (i.e., no option for 70D or 85D). Best guess, based on the tweets is the option for a 75D or 80D Model X for around $80K in Q3 or Q4 of next year. Like the 70D Model S, I believe that car will have a core package of features (like NAV with supercharger routing) that are essential for the Tesla experience. But anything fancy will be extra.

I actually think the analysts may be overestimating X deliveries in 2015, but underestimating X deliveries in 2016. Once Tesla resolves supplier issues with the seats and windshield, they will be rocking and rolling to fill those pre-orders.

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I bet we'll see a rear-wheel drive ~70kWh Model X by the end of next year that will start at ~$75K

That would conflict with Musk's statement that the X will only come in an all-wheel drive version (back in 2014). Not saying it's impossible but I would consider a RWD version of the X to be unlikely.

Source: Elon Musk: Tesla Model X Will Be AWD Only (w/video) | Inside EVs

-CB

 

[Eddy Go]

Why do everybody keep talking about high Price Mod.X. If wie compare with a BMW X5 or a Range Rover ?

 

[flyhigh123]

im one on the fence... if my res comes up and a smaller battery version is not available, i'll be asking for my refund and looking for another car...

the X is great, but i wouldnt mind getting another cayenne again...

X is not the only car on the road, lots of options. i'd prefer to get a 70-80k cayenne over a 100k X.

 

[shokunin]

Even with the Model S, they launched with the 85 packs first. After the Sigs, it was only a few months until they started production on the 60's. I have friends who have reservations on the X, but are looking for the smaller pack to save some dough and to keep it just under 100K. While we don't know pricing, a 90 with a few options will likely surpass 100K and then some.

 

[goneskiian]

Why do everybody keep talking about high Price Mod.X. If wie compare with a BMW X5 or a Range Rover ?

Or, as flybigh123 points out, the Porsche Cayenne. The X P90D is just as quick as a Cayenne Turbo S AND it's $30k less expensive!

 

[ecarfan]

No matter how much you support Tesl...of certainty based on your personal reaction.

 

[ecarfan]

Or, as flybigh123 points out, the Porsche Cayenne. The X P90D is just as quick as a Cayenne Turbo S AND it's $30k less expensive!

And it uses no gas.

 

[ecarfan]

@eloder, excellent post. The prophets proclaiming the X is a failure have very short memories. Tesla history is set to repeat itself. Before the S launch Elon speculated that the car market might be able to absorb 10 or 20 thousand Model S a year. He underestimated demand. Of course numerous critics said no one would buy an EV that expensive.

Everything with the MS launch is repeating itself.
Vehicle launches for much more than people expect? Check.
Mainstream analysts spelling gloom and doom for the company? Check.
Complaints about the vehicle's failure due to the lack of some specific features that are apparently a dealbreaker but doesn't do a thing to stop sales? Check.
A bunch of outrageous, off the wall features that no car company should explore for a mass produced vehicle? Check.

 

[Merrill]

No, I do not "have to agree". I emphatically disagree with you.
I am not an X reservation holder. I am a Model S and a Roadster owner. Before the X reveal I never gave any thought to owning an X. After the reveal I have been imagining what it would be like to own one, because the car is so much more awesome than I expected it would be! I do not have kids, I don't haul lumber or bicycles or mattresses or tow anything. I just think it would be an awesome road trip car.
I am looking forward to taking a test drive when the X appears in showrooms.
Yes some reservation holders will and are cancelling because of the non-folding second row. But I predict that many more people will make a reservation after seeing and test driving the car and that the X will sell very well in North America.
So I suggest that before declaring the X is DOA, you wait a year and see what the sales figures are. You know, wait for actual data instead of making pronouncements of certainty based on your personal reaction.

Totally agree with this, I was at the reveal and still did not get a chance to really go over the car or see it in the day light. We will see what the sales numbers are once they have some of them in the showrooms. I have a feeling that once you see it and drive it you might have a different feeling for the car, possibly more positive.

 

[Discoducky]

It's WAY to early to make proclamations like this.

The Model X is still a unicorn (it shouldn't exist just like the S shouldn't exist; NOTE this is the word Elon used which is still applicable IMHO) but there it is, and the only difference in its launch IMHO is that it is being measured against the current yardstick of the Model S whereas the S launch had no real yardstick other than the Roadster (not really comparable) and some ways is considered not as appealing to some than the development car shown. Will this be rectified and resolved in short order? Well, Tesla is really good at iterating so we'll see!

 

[tonyinc]

Out of curiosity when do people think the launch has/will happen? Am I off base to think it has happened?

I never meant to say the X is or is going to be a failure once other options are available. I am quite sure the X will be successful at some point in the future.

I thought the "launch" was last week. The period from when they took reservations to a week after the "launch" is a failure in some people's mind for good reason. The biggest problem IMO is that the car has launched and still no real specs or ANY real guidance on production delivery, or options.

So from deposits to launch, IMO many people feel gut punched by Tesla.

I agree with the S timeline repeating itself. The difference is that when the S launched it was still an unknown if Tesla could even build a mass production car. They have definitely proven that they can, possibly the best sedan on the road (if price is not an option). The problem here is that the opinion of analysts (and res holders) has the fact that Tesla can produce great vehicles is built in to their opinion and projected demand...and they still see problems.



I am sure in the future the X will be a great vehicle with plenty of demand within 18 months . I was specifically talking about the period between deposits and now.

The fact that there is no real info on the car, and people are left trying to guess at the very basic configs and specifications of the vehicle at this point is LAME.

I believe that even sig #2 does not have an estimated delivery date yet.

At some point Tesla will not be able to behave like this without scrutiny.

 

[ecarfan]

I would say that Tesla is being scrutinized pretty acutely right now. [emoji6]
With over 20K X reservations and many months to go before Tesla begins to catch up with producing enough X's to meet confirmed reservations, Tesla does not need to release complete details about the X right now. I would like them to, but their business is not being harmed by their failure to do so.
Has there ever been a car in the history of automobile manufacturing where over 20,000 people each put thousands of dollars down, months or years in advance, without knowing anything more than the vaguest things about the car they were placing a reservation for? That's never happened before. It's really quite incredible.
And Elon has said that since the X launch there has been an increase in X reservations. Sounds like a success to me. Of course Tesla now has to ramp up production. I'm confident that they can do that. They've done it before, when they had far less experience and knowledge than they have now.

 

[eepic]

http://news.investors.com/technology/100615-774266-tesla-bull-trims-price-target-model-x.htm

This analyst has been the biggest Tesla Bull for years and he agrees with the OP. This combined with the seats (which I am confident will cause cancellations) is not good news.
No matter how much you support Tesla and their products (which I really do), you have to agree the X launch is a fail for the company. There are just not enough people to pay anything and accept anything out there. This is not a bad thing if Tesla learns from it.

Just because people pay a $5,000 deposit like I did, does not mean they will pay significantly more than they expected and/or accept a reduction in utility.

This guy still has a crazy high target for the stock, but the point is even he sees an issue here. Just growing pains for Tesla, as they appeal to a broader and broader market, they have to make the customers feel loved at some point.

I disagree, the goal of the launch was to reveal the product to the world in a way that makes it desirable. In that sense it was a huge success - every single media first impression and review was overwhelmingly positive, with the only recurring criticism being price.

Yes, the initial Founder and Signature editions are expensive but why would you expect otherwise? It's fair game Tesla prioritizes customers who are willing to pay an extra premium to have it first.

I feel OP actually just really wants the lower priced versions to be available so he can get his sooner, probably feels envious Signature orders will get priority (hey, I would too). This really shouldn't surprise anyone though.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Out of curiosity when do people think the launch has/will happen? Am I off base to think it has happened?

The launch has happened, however we don't have an accurate measure of the effects of the launch yet (namely the impact on overall sales). So it is definitely premature to say it is a failure. There will be analysts who by their opinion say it is a failure, but they don't have the objective measures to determine that yet.

As for the controlled release of information, it is a strategy change from previously. With the Model S, Tesla released a whole lot of information and in the end was unable to deliver on some of the promised items (and many they had to retrofit). By not releasing information so freely, I think they are trying to reduce the risk of over-promising.

 

[MrBoylan]

Has there ever been a car in the history of automobile manufacturing where over 20,000 people each put thousands of dollars down, months or years in advance, without knowing anything more than the vaguest things about the car they were placing a reservation for?

The model X reveal was pretty specific. In most respects, the production version is extremely similar to what we saw at the 2012 prototype unveiling (folding seats aside) as well as the later prototypes that were floating around for a while.

And Elon has said that since the X launch there has been an increase in X reservations. Sounds like a success to me. Of course Tesla now has to ramp up production. I'm confident that they can do that. They've done it before, when they had far less experience and knowledge than they have now.

Actually I believe Elon said they saw an uptick in MODEL S reservations after the X launch:

Elon Musk: Tesla Model X launch caused a in orders for the Model S | Electrek

Whether that was from X deposit holders who switched to an "S" or just a side effect of the massive additional exposure to the company and its existing car from all the press of the X launch (or a combination of both) is anyone's guess. I agree with your post in principle but it does seem like there are some supply side barriers standing in the way of a quick ramp-up on the X. Eventually they will work these out, however, and we'll start to see the X being built in quantities to match (or exceed) what we've already seen with the Model S.

-CB

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By not releasing information so freely, I think they are trying to reduce the risk of over-promising.

^This!

What they showed at the launch was super cool and probably enough to generate more orders and for many (but not all) early adopters to confirm their orders. If we get things in the production car that go beyond what was specifically announced, then all the better. But I would have been quite happy to drive one of those founders cars right off the stage and back home to New York.