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Tesla Network / Robotaxi Business Model
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
[bloomberg] Baidu, Pony.ai Nab Commercial Robotaxi Licenses in Beijing
This seems comparable with Waymo's operations in Chandler, AZ — or perhaps another step up.
Search giant Baidu Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp.-backed Pony.ai Inc. were granted the first batch of licenses from Beijing regulators to start open-road autonomous commercial driving operations in a part of the city equivalent to the size of Manhattan.
The pilot licenses will allow a fleet of around 100 cars from the two companies to travel around the 60-square-kilometer (23 square mile) so-called Beijing High-level Automated Driving Demonstration Area, about a 30-minute drive from Tiananmen Square, according to state media reports.
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This seems comparable with Waymo's operations in Chandler, AZ — or perhaps another step up.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
Nit: I wouldn't say "lost", because that Reuters article says suspended, not revoked. Also "...the suspension does not impact Pony.ai’s permit for testing with a safety driver."
1) With all due respect to Phoenix, Arizona, but who needs a cab there anyway? Who goes there who already does not have their own car
So not a relevant point. Plus, from the videos provided, Waymo is not very good at its businesses - the pick up positions and final destinations are pre set and often hundreds of meters from where you want the cab to be.
2) Uber is expensive because it needs to pay the driver. Plus, Tesla will take care of the insurance. Plus, electricity is much cheaper than gas. Plus. robotaxis can be operational 24/7, and not typically 8 hours/day, 6 days per week. Completely different model.
Elon:
"Full Self-Driving. So, over time, we think Full Self-Driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla. It's -- actually, if you run the numbers on robotaxis, it's kind of nutty -- it's nutty good from a financial standpoint."
"Full Self-Driving. So, over time, we think Full Self-Driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla. It's -- actually, if you run the numbers on robotaxis, it's kind of nutty -- it's nutty good from a financial standpoint."
Options for introducing the new service:
- Introduce in cities one by one and wipe out Uber etc. (won't go down well with drivers - political headache)
- Introduce in cities simultaneously (RT for many years will be used like a fairground ride but poor customer experience as swapping between apps to find an available Uber or RT)
- Introduce in cities one by one but only up to 50% capacity to provide competition only (won't go down well with drivers - political headache plus poor customer experience as swapping between apps to find an available Uber or RT)
- Integrate with Uber (plenty of downsides but avoids the problems above)
- Provide high cost long distance travel only initially. Compete with airport taxis etc for a few years. Avoids all above problems. Start at 30 mile minimum travel initially and ramp down to 5 mile minimum after a few years and no minimum after 10 years (2033 etc.). This won't wipe out Uber etc. for many years. All bookings must be reserved ahead of time initially.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
That'd be great, but it's not what we're doing. We're allocating 80 kWh, 100 kWh and more on garage queens that drive ~10k/year. Worse yet, we're actually subsidizing this!
Batteries are a precious resource, and will be for at least the rest of the decade. We could transition 4-5x faster by pushing long range batteries into high-usage applications like taxi/Uber, delivery vans and trucking while restricting low-use personal cars to ~20 kWh. I know people object strongly to PHEVs on religious grounds, but used properly they can deliver 4x the oil reduction bang per buck.
The 18 kWh RAV4 Prime can do all commuting on kWhs from the same wall plug as a 80+ kWh Model Y LR. Make the ICE E-85 and the other 20% of driving would only be 15% petroleum. That's a 97% oil reduction with a small fraction of the kWhs.
We'd rather posture and back-pat (and get rich) than do what makes sense.
People who buy EVs self-select. Some select based on the fact that they personally want a greener car. Some of them buy an EV because the cost to operate them is massively lower than the cost to operate an ICE vehicle. Some EVs are certainly “Garage Queens”, but word has gotten out within the high mileage driver community. Uber drivers are using them. Tesla semi will be a huge winner very soon. The financial payback for people who drive a bunch is too compelling to ignore at this point.
Also. I’m not a fan of the subsidies myself, but subsidies are ending on the most egregious garage queens.
Tesla's success with Model S garage queens funded the creation of a charging network and mass produce the Model 3/Y.
But now I agree, Tesla should, and they are, turn their attention to high mileage vehicles such as Semi. If they ever are successful with RoboTaxis, it will have dramatic decrease in green house gas production.
Above was from May and referred to below:
Will Tesla choose to own the RTs and Bots is the singular key question for hyper bulls. My $375T market cap in 2030 estimate assumes so. Another benefit that I haven't previously documented is that Tesla can redistribute wealth much better this way by using a percentage of bots and RTs charitably.
Gigapress has TE being a drain (upscaling grid) on RTs rather than sponsoring RT and bot purchases in my model. Either way, the results by 2040 would be off the hook.
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
You'd have to pay to maintain, insure, charge, clean, and manage that self-driving robo-taxi - I'm not sure you'd break even at the rates described in this model.
Not sure if you are referring to Omar's or mine. Maintenance, insurance, charging, cleaning & mgt costs are all minimal in comparison to revenue. My model has RT net profit at $50k per annum per vehicle (not including vehicle cost or depreciation). Totally doable if revenue is ~$100k. That is $0.19 per minute (or mile) average which is a lot less than Uber. RT will be a premium over Uber as there is no driver and the autonomous party trick entertainment will last for years across 7 Bn people. 24 hour usage is not unreasonable when you consider them as slightly uncomfortable mobile hotel rooms.
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