I bet they do, or very close to it.
If they were talking about something more than 6 months away, or if they hadn't already confirmed they've started prototype production, I would take it with a grain of salt. But, since we're talking about only 4 months or so and they have started prototypes/pre-production I'm a lot more confident.
If they were talking about something more than 6 months away, or if they hadn't already confirmed they've started prototype production, I would take it with a grain of salt. But, since we're talking about only 4 months or so and they have started prototypes/pre-production I'm a lot more confident.
jstack6
Member
They have learned a lot from the production of the S and X. I think the 3 will be ready and on time. One of the biggest items was the new 2170 battery and that seems to be in production and already used in the PowerWall. It looks good now in FEB 2017 and we will all find out in July.
EV-lutioin
Active Member
As I read it, they are actually ahead of schedule. Earlier that stated that M3 production would start in late 2017 and now they are saying July. Tesla ahead of schedule?... something is not right with the universe!
JeffK
Well-Known Member
It was the plan since last year for suppliers to start delivering on July 1st. It doesn't necessarily mean production will start in July if one or more suppliers suffers an unforeseen delay. Elon is predicting they will be able to start in July as everything currently seems on track. Plans get derailed for all sorts of reasons though.
If it happened to be a part that Tesla could manufacture internally then they might start but still with a delay and much higher initial costs.
We have to look at some of the reasons for past delays to better understand them. Many of the reasons are technical/engineering or supplier issues. Model 3 has been in the business plan since 2006, as far as I know Tesla started designing Model 3 in 2014 when Model X was having delays. 3 years later we have the Gigafactory producing cells and many of the core technologies for Model 3 have been well tested (hopefully). If there are delays for Model 3 they will be measured in weeks and not years. A lot of work and preparation has gone into Model 3.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Hmmm....the "bears" are circling, and someone checks in 2 1/2 days later to make their very 1st post on here, and even tagged themselves as beng in Fremont!!!
Did you draw the short straw? Is it up to you to write the article about the negative feelings reservation holders have?
Did you draw the short straw? Is it up to you to write the article about the negative feelings reservation holders have?
WarpedOne
Supreme Premier
Starting date is of lesser importance, what is important is ramp up speed.
Say there is 2 week delay and they start with Job 1 on 15th July, they can still start building 2000 cars in august, and 4000 in september.
End year production total is the same.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
dchuck
Member
+1 WarpedOne
That and re-work. If they produce 2000 cars a week to start but have to take them all back because of a major problem then the actual production rate is 0. Better to start slow and get the process right before ramping up, even if that pushes more production into 2018.
I would love to have my car delivered at Christmas 2017, but not if i have to send it to a service center a week after it is delivered. Because the closest service center to me is 1000 miles away.
That and re-work. If they produce 2000 cars a week to start but have to take them all back because of a major problem then the actual production rate is 0. Better to start slow and get the process right before ramping up, even if that pushes more production into 2018.
I would love to have my car delivered at Christmas 2017, but not if i have to send it to a service center a week after it is delivered. Because the closest service center to me is 1000 miles away.
igotzzoom
Active Member
As long as I get mine sometime during 2018, I'll be happy. If it looks like it's going to be 2019, I might ask for my money back.
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