Should be an interesting day tomorrow...
One week since the first e-mail's went out asking current owners with reservations to configure. There was a rumor in the other thread that Tesla would be sending those e-mail's out in weekly batches. So tomorrow and Wednesday may see some more go out. The poll shows that of the 104 current owners with reservations that 26 (25%) have received the configuration invite. And schonelucht's spreadsheet shows 33 having configured with 6 deferring configuration. Also, in one of the other threads someone mentioned that you typically receive a VIN about 3 weeks before the delivery. So we might start seeing those anytime now too.
It seems like the best visibility into the ramp as of this week will be how many additional owners are invited to configure. Week 1 was 39 total (per schonelucht). Obviously there were many more than 39 invitations sent out. Tesla will now have a good idea of how many cars they will need to build and deliver in 3 weeks, and will adjust the next number of invites sent based on how many cars they believe they can get built the week after the current configured cars get built. If we see another ~40 reported, then the ramp hasn't increased. The total reported over 40 indicates the slope of the early ramp.
Total number that they will deliver in 3 weeks is still the big unknown. That depends on what percentage of total invitees are registered on TMC and posting to this thread. Others have speculated what this number might be based on Model S production and delivery rates, but I don't think those numbers are necessarily valid anymore given the larger brand awareness of Tesla. I think there are more Model 3 reservation holders on the site as a percentage of total reservations now than there were Model S reservation holders. Don't think I would want to hazard even a guess at the total number of invites sent out. But I do believe we can use the newly reported invites to gauge the ramp slope.
And also use the spreadsheet to make sure that Tesla actually delivers the promised cars in 4 weeks as they estimated. I really don't think they would publicly say 4 week delivery unless they were pretty confident they could do it. They have enough egg on their face already given their recent slip due to the battery packaging. And speaking of battery production issues, I haven't seen any speculation in this thread or other Model 3 threads concerning whether we believe that Tesla has the problem resolved. For example, is the new hardware and software in place to automate the battery module production?
Just my $0.02 reading of the tea leaves.
RT
P.S. I would love to see 80 additional entries in the spreadsheet by the end of day Wednesday. That is something I could really sink my teeth into.
One week since the first e-mail's went out asking current owners with reservations to configure. There was a rumor in the other thread that Tesla would be sending those e-mail's out in weekly batches. So tomorrow and Wednesday may see some more go out. The poll shows that of the 104 current owners with reservations that 26 (25%) have received the configuration invite. And schonelucht's spreadsheet shows 33 having configured with 6 deferring configuration. Also, in one of the other threads someone mentioned that you typically receive a VIN about 3 weeks before the delivery. So we might start seeing those anytime now too.
It seems like the best visibility into the ramp as of this week will be how many additional owners are invited to configure. Week 1 was 39 total (per schonelucht). Obviously there were many more than 39 invitations sent out. Tesla will now have a good idea of how many cars they will need to build and deliver in 3 weeks, and will adjust the next number of invites sent based on how many cars they believe they can get built the week after the current configured cars get built. If we see another ~40 reported, then the ramp hasn't increased. The total reported over 40 indicates the slope of the early ramp.
Total number that they will deliver in 3 weeks is still the big unknown. That depends on what percentage of total invitees are registered on TMC and posting to this thread. Others have speculated what this number might be based on Model S production and delivery rates, but I don't think those numbers are necessarily valid anymore given the larger brand awareness of Tesla. I think there are more Model 3 reservation holders on the site as a percentage of total reservations now than there were Model S reservation holders. Don't think I would want to hazard even a guess at the total number of invites sent out. But I do believe we can use the newly reported invites to gauge the ramp slope.
And also use the spreadsheet to make sure that Tesla actually delivers the promised cars in 4 weeks as they estimated. I really don't think they would publicly say 4 week delivery unless they were pretty confident they could do it. They have enough egg on their face already given their recent slip due to the battery packaging. And speaking of battery production issues, I haven't seen any speculation in this thread or other Model 3 threads concerning whether we believe that Tesla has the problem resolved. For example, is the new hardware and software in place to automate the battery module production?
Just my $0.02 reading of the tea leaves.
RT
P.S. I would love to see 80 additional entries in the spreadsheet by the end of day Wednesday. That is something I could really sink my teeth into.
