Tesla owner configurations begin

[HumanGenome]

Someone from the Northwest Owners Club got invited to configure their Model 3, they are not an employee.

Rumor: Non-Tesla Model 3 Configuration went out today • r/teslamotors

This is rumor level at this point but if true implies that Tesla owner configuration is coming very soon.

EDIT: Meant to say "configuration" beginning not deliveries.. my bad

 

[PoitNarf]

Hope this is true, but I’m not holding my breath...

 

[macpacheco]

Given the information that the Model 3 assembly line has already demonstrated short production spurts compatible with 500 units/wk pace, as soon as the giga factory bottleneck is gone, Tesla would have to immediately start inviting the first non employee reservations to configure. Possibly something like 10000 invitations.
If Tesla is to be running at 500 units/wk by mid December (4 weeks from now), the time would be now to start getting the first few thousand non employee orders.
I'd say the odds are 50-50 this is true/fake.

 

[drrjv]

Fake news (without collaboration)

Some sort of reliable documentation or confirmation required

 

[K-MTG]

Seems fake...hoping it will open tomorrow or on Monday

 

[S3XY]

I say if this is fake then we track him down and stone him!

 

[HankLloydRight]

Don't you think that electrocution would be more appropriate??

 

[Stirfelt]

Perhaps I have not thought my question through .............

We have been led to believe that something like 450,000 reservation have been placed.

Tesla's website states that LR battery vehicles will start production on 2017 and SR in 2018.
The website also indicates that production will ramp up to "5K" per month by the end of December 2017.

I have been advised that my configuration offer would be delayed until mid 2018 (and I am NOT an early reservationist). (I expected my reservation to mature mid to late 2019)

Does that not suggest that either a heck of a lot of reservationist have cancelled outright? or delayed placing an order?

 

[DR61]

I have been advised that my configuration offer would be delayed until mid 2018 (and I am NOT an early reservationist). (I expected my reservation to mature mid to late 2019)

Your priority is much higher because of your proximity to Fremont. For instance, I think that all export orders regardless of reservation order are behind you. My reservation was a day and a half late, with more than 210,000 ahead of me, but since I am in CA Tesla estimates Feb-Apr 2018.

 

[Stirfelt]

DR61 - Thank you for the comment.
Unfortunately .... unlike so many .... I'm not ready for a new car.
I'll spare you the details, but my current car is too good to consider trading right now. I was pleased with the 2019 thought.

 

[McHoffa]

Given the information that the Model 3 assembly line has already demonstrated short production spurts compatible with 500 units/wk pace, as soon as the giga factory bottleneck is gone, Tesla would have to immediately start inviting the first non employee reservations to configure. Possibly something like 10000 invitations.
If Tesla is to be running at 500 units/wk by mid December (4 weeks from now), the time would be now to start getting the first few thousand non employee orders.
I'd say the odds are 50-50 this is true/fake.

Elon did say on the call that they were looking at thousands per week end of December or mid January at latest. They wouldn’t necessarily need configurations to start that though since they are only making one configuration with wheels and color options. The employee orders probably give them a decent estimate of percentage of each color/wheel combination and they could start making hundreds of each and know they’d have a place to go. If they started ramping tomorrow they could open orders next week and already have a 500 of them ready to go. The minute someone orders their car would already be in production and ready to ship. They won’t need the month plus lead time the S/X require for now.

 

[macpacheco]

Elon did say on the call that they were looking at thousands per week end of December or mid January at latest. They wouldn’t necessarily need configurations to start that though since they are only making one configuration with wheels and color options. The employee orders probably give them a decent estimate of percentage of each color/wheel combination and they could start making hundreds of each and know they’d have a place to go. If they started ramping tomorrow they could open orders next week and already have a 500 of them ready to go. The minute someone orders their car would already be in production and ready to ship. They won’t need the month plus lead time the S/X require for now.

But when someone configures, customer must upgrade from $1000 refundable to many times more non refundable charge. I don't think Tesla has any reason to do what you suggest.
As soon as they predict the first non employee M3 orders will be (99% certainty) delivered within 30 days, they will open the first batch for configuration (but promise delivery for 45-60 days):
$$$ in
the stock gets a boost
more people reserve
the only negative a potential drop in MS/MX orders. The later is significant, but Tesla has enough $$$ on hand to take a short term hit (specially considering those R2/Semi reservation revenue). And likely the reduction in MS/MX orders will be less lost revenue than revenue realized within 2 months with M3 deliveries.

 

[McHoffa]

But when someone configures, customer must upgrade from $1000 refundable to many times more non refundable charge. I don't think Tesla has any reason to do what you suggest.
As soon as they predict the first non employee M3 orders will be (99% certainty) delivered within 30 days, they will open the first batch for configuration (but promise delivery for 45-60 days):
$$$ in
the stock gets a boost
more people reserve
the only negative a potential drop in MS/MX orders. The later is significant, but Tesla has enough $$$ on hand to take a short term hit (specially considering those R2/Semi reservation revenue). And likely the reduction in MS/MX orders will be less lost revenue than revenue realized within 2 months with M3 deliveries.

It’s kinda like Little Caesar’s. They know that 500 people will order a cheese or pepperoni pizza so they can just start making both before anyone even places the orders. Even if some people in line change their mind and want supreme they know someone behind them will order pepperoni so it’s no loss for them to churn out those initial combinations.

 

[macpacheco]

It’s kinda like Little Caesar’s. They know that 500 people will order a cheese or pepperoni pizza so they can just start making both before anyone even places the orders. Even if some people in line change their mind and want supreme they know someone behind them will order pepperoni so it’s no loss for them to churn out those initial combinations.

I fully understand your side, but just because they can do that, doesn't mean its a good idea. I gave a few reasons why they shouldn't wait to open up configuration.
Essentially the only scenario I see where they would do what you suggest is if they complete all employee orders while still doing very little volume, so they would want to delay opening up configuration to reduce MS/MX orders. However with 3000 employee orders, its unlikely that will happen. They should jump to 500 units/wk in line with being ready to fulfill non employe orders. If they can do 500 units/wk jumping to a few thousand isn't far behind.

 

[davidc18]

There has been one M3 delivered to a vip investor from the Dania SC and the local rumor is that they expect the first customer delivery in early December.

My tesla delivery estimator still says Nov 17 -Jan 18

 

[X Fan]

There has been one M3 delivered to a vip investor from the Dania SC and the local rumor is that they expect the first customer delivery in early December.

My tesla delivery estimator still says Nov 17 -Jan 18

David-
In Florida? Seems awfully early vs Cal.

VIP investor is perhaps the guy that got the X early on....

 

[davidc18]

David-
In Florida? Seems awfully early vs Cal.

VIP investor is perhaps the guy that got the X early on....

That's what I thought but the information was offered by someone who would know. Also the early delivery car has been back for service and I've seen photos of the car. Actually getting a customer delivery would be great news and I hope it was accurate.

 

[Dogwhistle]

The first non-employee customer invite was just received, over on the Model 3owners club forum!

 

[avoigt]

Looks like its really starting!

I Got My Invite!

This are great news !

 

[avoigt]

Fake news (without collaboration)

Some sort of reliable documentation or confirmation required

You find here the confirmation and screen shot: I Got My Invite!