Merrill
Merrill
I'm not a fan of fully autonomous vehicles, I love driving and even with AP I probably will only use it on a road trip on an interstate. So make it an option.
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Tesla Pickup Truck
- Thread starter AnOutsider
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I fully expect that most high speed roads like major highways will become autonomous vehicles only by some point in the next few decades. If the Model 3 causes a cascade failure of traditional auto makers, that might delay the introduction of autonomous vehicles across all manufacturers because the propped up survivors will be forced to put all their efforts and cash into converting their fleets to electric drive trains and securing enough batteries to power all their cars. Regulators are going to be slow to make changes that will mandate technology if the car companies are on life support.
If the Model 3 is having an impact, look at lease rates of ICEs. If the number of leases go up sharply, that indicates a lot of people who want a long range electric car, but they are willing to slum it with an ICE they don't own until they can get a BEV.
The world has a lot of car enthusiasts who keep old cars running. Everything from someone with a single classic car to car collectors. Just like there are people keeping old aircraft flying. The laws will have to accommodate people with classic cars, though they could restrict where those people drive them.
The transition period where some cars are autonomous and some aren't will last a couple of decades and it's actually a tougher problem to solve than if all cars were autonomous. With all that work done, autonomous cars will be able to deal with the occasional manually driven car on the streets well into the future.
With classic aircraft, the FAA puts restrictions on when they can fly. Most are limited to day time and clear weather only. It all is dependent on what navigation and safety equipment is installed. If a classic aircraft owner wants to install all those things the FAA can certify the aircraft for all weather flying, but it's rarely done. Nobody wants to fly a P-51 in poor conditions due to the risk of loss.
Somebody may come up with an aftermarket autonomous driving kit that can convert older cars to autonomous driving and some people may install them to enable their classic car to drive on limited roads, but it will be fairly rare.
If the Model 3 is having an impact, look at lease rates of ICEs. If the number of leases go up sharply, that indicates a lot of people who want a long range electric car, but they are willing to slum it with an ICE they don't own until they can get a BEV.
The world has a lot of car enthusiasts who keep old cars running. Everything from someone with a single classic car to car collectors. Just like there are people keeping old aircraft flying. The laws will have to accommodate people with classic cars, though they could restrict where those people drive them.
The transition period where some cars are autonomous and some aren't will last a couple of decades and it's actually a tougher problem to solve than if all cars were autonomous. With all that work done, autonomous cars will be able to deal with the occasional manually driven car on the streets well into the future.
With classic aircraft, the FAA puts restrictions on when they can fly. Most are limited to day time and clear weather only. It all is dependent on what navigation and safety equipment is installed. If a classic aircraft owner wants to install all those things the FAA can certify the aircraft for all weather flying, but it's rarely done. Nobody wants to fly a P-51 in poor conditions due to the risk of loss.
Somebody may come up with an aftermarket autonomous driving kit that can convert older cars to autonomous driving and some people may install them to enable their classic car to drive on limited roads, but it will be fairly rare.
Think bigger.
A fully autonomous vehicle doesn't need space for an occupant; what we know today as a trailer can be a fully self contained autonomous vehicle.
Your 'trailer' could meet you at your destination and/or tag along behind you in your 'regular' car like a puppy towed by a virtual leash.
andrerodpt
Member
I agree you with you. But maybe we're not seeing far enough and all those hurdles will be surpassed by AV.
I think you may not have a choice. Elon himself alluded that in the future getting a driving licence will be a lot harder since you'll have to prove you're at least as safe as Autonomous Driving. Think insurance companies and what quote you'll get as a risky annoyance compared with AV in a network.
You can still drive but when you are the computer is watching over you and monitoring you so it can protect you if anything happens to a level that any autonomous system could. This would satisfy the people that want safe autonomous driving as well as the people that like to drive. Also addresses the main two vehicle types that you need to be able to drive: trucks and sports cars(but I think it should be a factory option on all cars but standard on these two)
Think bigger. Let go of the FUD.
There's a world of solutions out there if you don't fight it. To say nothing of a root problem analysis...
For instance, you own one autonomous skateboard that has a standard form function, onto which you can load one of your 5 special use racks with your boat or side by side or whatever.
Ah, yes I grok now. I think some roads will likely be fully autonomous so cars can drive bumper to bumper with all cars communicating with each other. Humans even with shadow mode can't have the information a fully autonomous system would have. A road with all autonomous cars communicating with each other can get real time traffic situations from many miles ahead of you and your car can react when the car in front says it is about to slow down.
On a street shadow mode would be useful if someone runs a red light or steps out in front of your car when you're looking to make a turn.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
I considered that as well and I would have to agree.
Maybe if we wish to drive on the interstate where it's normally self driving only due to bumper riding, we can do it but only during off hours and not during peak traffic time.
Tbh other than the occasional highway speed run, the most fun driving is off interstate anyway( but like I said I like quick speed runs so I hope we can still do it on the freeway during off hours)
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
A bit of an inside joke. I refer to the daily meetings held on the 405 FWY/Parking Lot here in Los Angeles as a congregation of the 'Brake Light Appreciation Society' (BLAP, for short). Their motto? 'When in Doubt, BRAKE!' And... They're always in doubt.
If the purpose of shadow mode is to monitor everything around you, and to protect you out of the clear blue from things it feels you haven't responded to properly or in a reasonable amount of time...? My guess is that its initial reaction would be to STOP the car. That, as opposed to speeding up, changing lanes, or cutting someone off. Thus, with such a 'Nanny Minder' engaged, you might find yourself in a car that suddenly slams on the brakes rather often, leaving the driver and passengers expounding with "What the [FLOCK]!" all the time. That is, until you get used to it, and know what the car considers a threat in any given situation, and drive 'safely' as required, to keep those sudden interruptions from happening as often.
But really? To everyone else on the road... You'll just look like another member of BLAP. Riding your brakes all the time, for no [DURNED] reason.
Hence, 'Brake Light Appreciation' mode.
But do you think it's a good solution to the problems I listed?
I feel once we get cars to the level of being able to fully self drive, it will be able to do things other than hit the brake. And even if that's all it does, it can tell the cars behind it that it's going to hit them.
You will be able to "self-drive" where you will be the only person doing it or at most surrounded by others doing the same - closed circuit, private road.
On public roads ... fuggetboutit.
Selfdriving == racing.
On public roads ... fuggetboutit.
Selfdriving == racing.
I think you may not have a choice. Elon himself alluded that in the future getting a driving licence will be a lot harder since you'll have to prove you're at least as safe as Autonomous Driving. Think insurance companies and what quote you'll get as a risky annoyance compared with AV in a network.[/QUOTE]
Shadow mode would make you as safe as a self driving car and you still get to drive. It's a win-win. I literally don't see a single downside. There is no reason to ban driving and destroy the many activities that go along with it we we could just do that.
Shadow mode would make you as safe as a self driving car and you still get to drive. It's a win-win. I literally don't see a single downside. There is no reason to ban driving and destroy the many activities that go along with it we we could just do that.
andrerodpt
Member
I just don't think that "shadow mode" wouldn't be a lot of fun since it would work in such small margins (remember that with AD you can theoretically get highly efficient traffic management) that you won't have a lot of fun without the computer intervene.
I agree it would keep you in line. That's the point. And on interstates and highway during peek traffic time, shadow mode would be disabled. But this would allow people to drive on highways when there is less traffic when they want as well as when your on normal roads.
And it's better then some people not wanting you to drive at all. Some is better than none. And you get to keep the utility you need from being able to drive.
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