Tesla Powertrain and Battery Investor Day

[Jack6591]

My interest in battery technology, has swollen my hatband, since the Cybertruck reveal. I’ve searched unsuccessfully to find a thread centered on Tesla’s upcoming “Powertrain and Battery Investor Day.”

Elon has always impressed with his measured reason when discussing new battery developments — his ability to discern signal from noise on these particular matters.

The pricing of the tri-motor Cybertruck begs the question, is some new battery technology announcement imminent?

 

[nativewolf]

My interest in battery technology, has swollen my hatband, since the Cybertruck reveal. I’ve searched unsuccessfully to find a thread centered on Tesla’s upcoming “Powertrain and Battery Investor Day.”

Elon has always impressed with his measured reason when discussing new battery developments — his ability to discern signal from noise on these particular matters.

The pricing of the tri-motor Cybertruck begs the question, is some new battery technology announcement imminent?

What we are all wondering. Same with the Semi...it begs the question

 

[Uncle Paul]

People suspect that Tesla is perhaps going to offer a stacked battery pack with far greater capacity. Nobody knows for sure what their plans are, but believe that Tesla is far ahead of any other manufacturer in providing such large capacities.

 

[ammulder]

People suspect that Tesla is perhaps going to offer a stacked battery pack with far greater capacity. Nobody knows for sure what their plans are, but believe that Tesla is far ahead of any other manufacturer in providing such large capacities.

I have to assume ANY manufacturer could produce a stacked pack with more capacity.

The real question is where all those cells are going to come from. So far Tesla seems to have the most capacity, but I'd doubt they could put double the batteries into every vehicle they sell today... so if they're going to fill more Model Y's with cells than the existing S+X+3, that alone is a huge increase, let alone whatever they're going to use on the CyberTruck, Semi, etc.

So I'm not so much expecting to hear what magical new technology they have come up with, but I'm instead looking to find out where all these new cells are going to come from!

(Though... some magic would be great too.

 

[Jack6591]

I have to assume ANY manufacturer could produce a stacked pack with more capacity.

The real question is where all those cells are going to come from. So far Tesla seems to have the most capacity, but I'd doubt they could put double the batteries into every vehicle they sell today... so if they're going to fill more Model Y's with cells than the existing S+X+3, that alone is a huge increase, let alone whatever they're going to use on the CyberTruck, Semi, etc.

So I'm not so much expecting to hear what magical new technology they have come up with, but I'm instead looking to find out where all these new cells are going to come from!

(Though... some magic would be great too.

Tesla / Maxwell: It Seems Mainstream News Coverage Has Missed The Mark

 

[ewoodrick]

Longer lasting batteries were promised for the Model Y.
A truck has a lot more room to store batteries

 

[Jack6591]

In my view, Tesla’s “Battery and Powertrain Investor Day” will address both energy density and production capabilities.

 

[Shayne]

Longer lasting batteries were promised for the Model Y.

A link to this promise would be appreciated.

 

[EVNow]

Have they announced a date yet?

 

[ewoodrick]

A link to this promise would be appreciated.

May not be exactly promised, but they were indicated to be next year and therefore before the Model Y delivery.

But they could have already been delivering them since was just some chemical changes, no packaging differences.

 

[Shayne]

It would be good to hear something about progress and/or implementation of the 100 m wiring harness also.

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla Battery Investor Day

 

[1OldCarBuf]

How does one get an invite to the Powertrain and Battery Investor Day?

 

[Buckminster]

Relevant to this thread.

 

[defc0n]

I wonder if I should be ashamed that this day is the one that I'm looking forward to the most in 2020.

 

[kayak1]

I wonder if I should be ashamed that this day is the one that I'm looking forward to the most in 2020.

It will be a good day, not my top, I might even watch it live..

 

[Buckminster]

Great post from the main thread:

Thoughts on what Tesla will announce on battery day in April & how Tesla’s future battery strategy will come together:

• Use cell supply from Panasonic/LG/CATL to bridge to ramp of in-house cell production (possibly towards ~90GWh contracted from these three suppliers).
• Announce that in-house cell production has just started (Apr-20) on a small scale (likely for Semi or Plaid Model S), with plans to ramp significantly in 2021 (potentially for all future new capacity from 2021).
• Announce a roadmap to reach 2TWh of annual in-house battery cell+module+pack production capacity by 2030. Enough for ~20 million annual EV sales and ~750GWH annual stationary battery storage sales.

Possible relatively short term technology breakthroughs:

• Tesla will apply agile development to its in-house cell manufacturing as it does everything else - so flexibility for rapid upgrades and iterations of the process to accelerate cost experience curves.
• Use Maxwell dry electrode tech to reduce manufacturing cost and footprint.
• Maxwell dry electrode tech leads to better physical properties, in particular allowing thicker cathodes (higher cathode % per cell) & possibly new chemistries.
• Move to use of single crystal cathodes - possibly helped by Maxwell process/other in-house R&D. This was a big part of the 1 million mile cells tested by Dahn.
• Use very carefully selected electrolyte additives following Dahn research.
• Highly automated manufacturing process to reduce staffing bottlenecks to production ramp.
• Tesla Hibar designs systems for electrolyte insertion during the cell manufacturing process.
• Combine all this with further in-house developed cell IP and possibly third party licensed tech. (Remember there are many steps in cell manufacturing and Maxwell/Hibar are only part of this)
• Reduce cathode kg per kWh to reduce raw material cost
• Next generation in-house module/pack lines for continued reduced cost & capex.
• Build a huge factory to build in-house cell/pack manufacturing equipment at scale (the machine that builds the machine that builds the machine) - significantly reducing capex per GWh capacity

Possible Longer term breakthroughs:

• Integrated cell & pack design & manufacturing process to reduce footprint & cost.
• Dahn lithium metal anode allows for much thinner anode, higher energy density & longer electrode life (at the expense of shorter electrolyte life).
• Replaceable electrolyte design to extend lithium metal anode battery life. Develop Hibar machines for easy electrolyte replacement in service centres.
• Dahn research is used to eliminate cobalt from the cathode leaving just Nickel Aluminium or Nickel Manganese.

Note these are all just possibilities (based on acquisitions, press leaks, published scientific papers, patents & speculation):
These various steps & incremental improvements may or may not be introduced once they have been proven ready for affordable mass manufacturing.

Some things I thing would help accelerate and de-risk Tesla’s battery cell ramp plans:

• Buy Panasonic’s GF1 business for cell manufacturing employee experience (who can be used to train new employees on Tesla’s cell lines) and other cell IP.
• Buy/build Cathode powder manufacturing expertise (currently Panasonic mostly uses Sumitomo). Cathode powder is likely ~20% premium to its raw material constituents & the process can be key to cell properties.
• Buy Nickel Sulphate & lithium carbonate/hydroxide processor expertise - this will be a huge % of cell cost & Tesla’s plans require ~10x the current Nickel sulphate & Lithium market size.
• Buy other suppliers in the cell manufacturing chain

Tesla cannot trust & rely on third parties to deliver such critical components of its business plan, particularly when the metals market leaders do not believe in an EV transition as aggressive as Tesla is targeting.

 

[Buckminster]

So, can we split battery innovation into 2 streams?:

Existing tech

• This would cover 3, Y, S, X (incl. Plaid most likely)
• They will announce that the improvements are already shipping in the Y during battery day
• Will include some minor parts of Maxwell etc.
• MY increase in range is the proof of existence
• More significant changes on 3, Y, S, X batteries is unlikely in the medium term because:
  • Extensive changes to the lines - might as well start from scratch
  • Would mean sharing the IP with Pana
• Future chemistry changes from Dahn will mean further improvements

New tech

• Exclusive in the medium term to Semi, Roadster, Cybertruck and M2
• Semi and Roadster could have been delayed partly for this battery to become available
• Dry electrode etc. See post above from ReflexFunds.
• This will allow ramping of the new tech to be sensible but won't Osbourne S, X, 3, Y as these vehicles are different form factors
• In the longer term, SEXY range would be upgraded but could require extensive changes / testing beyond the battery. Battery will be smaller, lighter, charge more quickly and behave differently.

 

[Buckminster]

Note that this was written by Eva Fox of Tesmanian, and Tesmanian is run by Vincent Yu who is founding member of the Third Row Tesla podcast who recently interviewed Elon.

With that in mind, I think we should give this Tesmanian leak from "sources familiar with the matter" some credence:

"From a source familiar with this issue, it became known that the new Tesla battery will have at least 30% more capacity and will be several times cheaper to manufacture. The production process will be extremely efficient and will significantly save on capital costs for equipment. In this scenario, a 130kWh pack seems possible. It also became known that the new cell will have a diameter of approximately 1.57 inches. The new battery will have a different form factor, so most likely it will be used for Semi and/or Cybertruck."

...

"That is, in such battery cells there is more power, more energy storage, it has a higher charging speed and faster manufacturing speed, as well as much cheaper production."

"Maxwell has been working on this technology for more than 6 years, trying to improve it, perhaps this is what Musk talking about 'It's gonna blow your mind.'"
​

While a 30% increase in energy density is fantastic in itself and a game changer, "several times cheaper to manufacture" is the really big disclosure IMO, which would be incredible news - if true then Tesla will dominate not just personal vehicles, but also:

• Heavy duty trucks (Tesla Semi)
• Energy storage
• Mass transportation (buses need big batteries)
• Maybe even shipping: <$30/kWh battery costs makes EV freight ocean shipping a no-brainer: big ships would require 200-500 MWh packs - but EV shipping could also shorten transportation time, which would monopolize the medium time-critical cargo business. China->EU shipping time from 4 weeks to 2 weeks, US-EU shipping cut from 20 days to 10 days perhaps? If I was a country with cheap electricity and a healthy maritime transportation industry (Norway...) I'd be watching this space very closely.

TSLA = $4,200 secured?

So this is almost double the diameter at 40mm compared to 22mm. 230% increase in volume per battery. Presumably they will keep a similar length to fit existing architecture. 4070 aka stubby.

 

[Fact Checking]

So this is almost double the diameter at 40mm compared to 22mm. 230% increase in volume per battery. Presumably they will keep a similar length to fit existing architecture. 4070 aka stubby.

I think the "30% more in capacity" was a poorly worded variant of "30% higher energy density" (kWh/kg) - obviously the cited dimensions are much bigger increase than 30%.

Increasing the form factor drastically makes sense from a mass production point of view. I think proportions will be similar to regular cells, i.e. the 21mm x 70mm diameter/length would IMO increase to 40mm x 140mm - i.e. a cylindrical volume increase from 24,245 mm³ to 175,929 mm³ - a factor of ~7.2x increase.

Any height restrictions in floor mounted battery packs would be solved by placing the cells horizontally. Model 3 and Model Y battery packs are not load bearing structures anymore AFAIK, which should allow the horizontal placement of cells, which would also make the flow of coolant more effective (which is in the length of the battery modules).

But they could also make them stubby as you suggest.